60 research outputs found
Using an Ellipsoid Model to Track and Predict the Evolution and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections
We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution
of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO
satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and
leading edge of a CME as an expanding, outward propagating ellipsoid, we track
its evolution in three-dimensional space. Though more complex empirical CME
models have been developed, we examine the accuracy of this relatively simple
geometric model, which incorporates relatively few physical assumptions,
including i) a constant propagation angle and ii) an azimuthally symmetric
structure. Testing our ellipsoid model developed herein on three separate CMEs,
we find that it is an effective tool for predicting the arrival of density
enhancements and the duration of each event near 1 AU. For each CME studied,
the trends in the trajectory, as well as the radial and transverse expansion
are studied from 0 to ~.3 AU to create predictions at 1 AU with an average
accuracy of 2.9 hours.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure
How Many CMEs Have Flux Ropes? Deciphering the Signatures of Shocks, Flux Ropes, and Prominences in Coronagraph Observations of CMEs
We intend to provide a comprehensive answer to the question on whether all
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have flux rope structure. To achieve this, we
present a synthesis of the LASCO CME observations over the last sixteen years,
assisted by 3D MHD simulations of the breakout model, EUV and coronagraphic
observations from STEREO and SDO, and statistics from a revised LASCO CME
database. We argue that the bright loop often seen as the CME leading edge is
the result of pileup at the boundary of the erupting flux rope irrespective of
whether a cavity or, more generally, a 3-part CME can be identified. Based on
our previous work on white light shock detection and supported by the MHD
simulations, we identify a new type of morphology, the `two-front' morphology.
It consists of a faint front followed by diffuse emission and the bright
loop-like CME leading edge. We show that the faint front is caused by density
compression at a wave (or possibly shock) front driven by the CME. We also
present high-detailed multi-wavelength EUV observations that clarify the
relative positioning of the prominence at the bottom of a coronal cavity with
clear flux rope structure. Finally, we visually check the full LASCO CME
database for flux rope structures. In the process, we classify the events into
two clear flux rope classes (`3-part', `Loop'), jets and outflows (no clear
structure). We find that at least 40% of the observed CMEs have clear flux rope
structures. We propose a new definition for flux rope CMEs (FR-CMEs) as a
coherent magnetic, twist-carrying coronal structure with angular width of at
least 40 deg and able to reach beyond 10 Rsun which erupts on a time scale of a
few minutes to several hours. We conclude that flux ropes are a common
occurrence in CMEs and pose a challenge for future studies to identify CMEs
that are clearly not FR-CMEs.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figs, to be published in Solar Physics Topical Issue
"Flux Rope Structure of CMEs
A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of ∼5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA
On the Nature and Genesis of EUV Waves: A Synthesis of Observations from SOHO, STEREO, SDO, and Hinode
A major, albeit serendipitous, discovery of the SOlar and Heliospheric
Observatory mission was the observation by the Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope
(EIT) of large-scale Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) intensity fronts propagating
over a significant fraction of the Sun's surface. These so-called EIT or EUV
waves are associated with eruptive phenomena and have been studied intensely.
However, their wave nature has been challenged by non-wave (or pseudo-wave)
interpretations and the subject remains under debate. A string of recent solar
missions has provided a wealth of detailed EUV observations of these waves
bringing us closer to resolving their nature. With this review, we gather the
current state-of-art knowledge in the field and synthesize it into a picture of
an EUV wave driven by the lateral expansion of the CME. This picture can
account for both wave and pseudo-wave interpretations of the observations, thus
resolving the controversy over the nature of EUV waves to a large degree but
not completely. We close with a discussion of several remaining open questions
in the field of EUV waves research.Comment: Solar Physics, Special Issue "The Sun in 360",2012, accepted for
publicatio
A Helicity-Based Method to Infer the CME Magnetic Field Magnitude in Sun and Geospace: Generalization and Extension to Sun-Like and M-Dwarf Stars and Implications for Exoplanet Habitability
Patsourakos et al. (Astrophys. J. 817, 14, 2016) and Patsourakos and
Georgoulis (Astron. Astrophys. 595, A121, 2016) introduced a method to infer
the axial magnetic field in flux-rope coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the
solar corona and farther away in the interplanetary medium. The method, based
on the conservation principle of magnetic helicity, uses the relative magnetic
helicity of the solar source region as input estimates, along with the radius
and length of the corresponding CME flux rope. The method was initially applied
to cylindrical force-free flux ropes, with encouraging results. We hereby
extend our framework along two distinct lines. First, we generalize our
formalism to several possible flux-rope configurations (linear and nonlinear
force-free, non-force-free, spheromak, and torus) to investigate the dependence
of the resulting CME axial magnetic field on input parameters and the employed
flux-rope configuration. Second, we generalize our framework to both Sun-like
and active M-dwarf stars hosting superflares. In a qualitative sense, we find
that Earth may not experience severe atmosphere-eroding magnetospheric
compression even for eruptive solar superflares with energies ~ 10^4 times
higher than those of the largest Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellite (GOES) X-class flares currently observed. In addition, the two
recently discovered exoplanets with the highest Earth-similarity index, Kepler
438b and Proxima b, seem to lie in the prohibitive zone of atmospheric erosion
due to interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), except when they possess planetary magnetic
fields that are much higher than that of Earth.Comment: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292...89
Coronal Density and Temperature Profiles Calculated by Forward Modeling EUV Emission Observed by SDO/AIA
We present a model for the intensity of optically thin extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission for a plasma atmosphere. We apply our model to the solar corona as observed using the six optically thin EUV channels of the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument. The emissivity of the plasma is calculated from the density and temperature using CHIANTI tables and the intensity is then determined by integration along the line of sight. We consider several different profiles for the radial density and temperature profiles, each of which are constrained by the observational data alone with no further physical assumptions. We demonstrate the method first by applying it to a quiet region of the corona, and then use it as the background component of a model including coronal holes, allowing the plasma densities and temperatures inside and outside the hole to be estimated. We compare our results with differential emission measure inversions. More accurate estimates for the coronal density and temperature profiles have the potential to help constrain plasma properties such as the magnetic field strength when used in combination with methods such as seismology
The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution
As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.Peer reviewe
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