Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty

Geoengineering, or the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change, has been suggested as a new potential tool for addressing climate change. Efforts to address climate change have primarily focused on mitigation, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and more recently on addressing the impacts of climate change—adaptation. However, international political consensus on the need to reduce emissions has been very slow in coming, and there is as yet no agreement on the emissions reductions needed beyond 2012. As a result global emissions have continued to increase by about 3% per year (Raupach et al. 2007), a faster rate than that projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC 2001)7 even under its most fossil fuel intensive scenario (A1FI8) in which an increase in global mean temperature of about 4°C (2.4 to 6.4°C) by 2100 is projected (Rahmstorf et al. 2007). The scientifi c community is now becoming increasingly concerned that emissions will not be reduced at the rate and magnitude required to keep the increase in global average temperature below 2°C (above pre-industrial levels) by 2100. Concerns with the lack of progress of the political processes have led to increasing interest in geoengineering approaches. This Royal Society report presents an independent scientifi c review of the range of methods proposed with the aim of providing an objective view on whether geoengineering could, and should, play a role in addressing climate change, and under what conditions

On the suitability of North Brazil Current transport estimates for monitoring basin-scale AMOC changes

The North Brazil Current (NBC) constitutes a bottleneck for the mean northward return flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the tropical South Atlantic. Previous studies suggested a link between interannual to multidecadal NBC and AMOC transport variability and proposed to use NBC observations as an index for the AMOC. Here we use a set of hindcast, sensitivity, and perturbation experiments performed within a hierarchy of ocean general circulation models to show that decadal to multidecadal buoyancy-forced changes in the basin-scale AMOC transport indeed manifest themselves in the NBC. The relation is, however, masked by a strong interannual to decadal wind-driven gyre variability of the NBC. While questioning the NBC transport as a direct index for the AMOC, the results support its potential merit for an AMOC monitoring system, provided that the wind-driven circulation variability is properly accounted for

Large UK retailers' initiatives to reduce consumers' emissions: a systematic assessment

In the interest of climate change mitigation, policy makers, businesses and non-governmental organisations have devised initiatives designed to reduce in-use emissions whilst, at the same time, the number of energy-consuming products in homes, and household energy consumption, is increasing. Retailers are important because they are at the interface between manufacturers of products and consumers and they supply the vast majority of consumer goods in developed countries like the UK, including energy using products. Large retailers have a consistent history of corporate responsibility reporting and have included plans and actions to influence consumer emissions within them. This paper adapts two frameworks to use them for systematically assessing large retailers’ initiatives aimed at reducing consumers’ carbon emissions. The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) is adapted and used to analyse the strategic scope and coherence of these initiatives in relation to the businesses’ sustainability strategies. The ISM ‘Individual Social Material’ framework is adapted and used to analyse how consumer behaviour change mechanisms are framed by retailers. These frameworks are used to analyse eighteen initiatives designed to reduce consumer emissions from eight of the largest UK retail businesses, identified from publicly available data. The results of the eighteen initiatives analysed show that the vast majority were not well planned nor were they strategically coherent. Secondly, most of these specific initiatives relied solely on providing information to consumers and thus deployed a rather narrow range of consumer behaviour change mechanisms. The research concludes that leaders of retail businesses and policy makers could use the FSSD to ensure processes, and measurements are comprehensive and integrated, in order to increase the materiality and impact of their initiatives to reduce consumer emissions in use. Furthermore, retailers could benefit from exploring different models of behaviour change from the ISM framework in order to access a wider set of tools for transformative system change

Developing Long Term Low Emissions and Climate Resilient Agricultural Development Pathways for Kenya: Setting priorities for national and subnational agriculture development

Kenya has developed a long term low emission and climate resilient agriculture development pathways (Agriculture LTS). The Agriculture LTS provides the enabling framework to identify medium- and long-term agricultural strategies and actions at national levels and sub-national levels in a changing climate. It also provides a guide on climate smart investments that will enhance agricultural productivity, ensure food security, and deliver the country’s growth in agriculture

Developing Long Term Low Emissions and Climate Resilient Agricultural Development Pathways for Uganda: Policy coherence and strong cross-sector and multi-stakeholder collaboration

Agriculture is a key sector for Uganda’s economy and it remains highly risky largely due to its sensitivity to climate change and related impacts. Uganda embarked on a journey of developing an economy-wide long term Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Development Strategy as well as the Agriculture Sector Long Term Low Emissions and Climate Resilient Development Pathway (Agriculture LTS) aimed at facilitating the country’s continued transformation to a green economy by prioritising adaptation and mitigation actions that increase agricultural productivity and build climate resilience of the agricultural and food systems while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensities in the sector

Developing Long Term Low Emissions and Climate Resilient Agricultural Development Pathways for Senegal: Getting ready for the LTS process

Senegal launched the process of developing its long-term, low carbon, climate resilient agricultural development pathway (Agriculture LTS) in May, 2021. The process is set to build on an existing long-term planning vision for climate agenda. The Agriculture LTS process is being coordinated by the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MEDD) in collaboration with the Ministry Agriculture and Rural Equipment (MAER)

Developing Long Term Low Emissions and Climate Resilient Agricultural Development Pathways for Zambia: Capacity needs and strengthening technical and institutional capacities

Development of Agriculture LTS is a highly technical, multi-step process that underpins formulation of specific long-term trajectory based on projected future climate scenarios. It requires countries to address data needs, uncertainties and the choice of adequate models as well as existing capacities to use them. In formulating Agriculture LTS for Zambia, the process included framing and contextualizing future emissions and future climate scenarios. This provided the basis for generating and prioritizing climate actions for achieving more sustainable and impactful solutions in the country

Refined forest land use classification with implications for United States national carbon accounting

The United States provides annual estimates of carbon sources and sinks as part of its National Green-house Gas Inventory (NGHGI). Within this effort, carbon stocks and fluxes are reported for six land use categories that are relevant to economic sectors and land use policy. The goal of this study is to develop methodologies that will allow the US to align with an internationally agreed upon forest land use definition which requires forest to be able to reach 5 m in height at maturity. Models to assess height potential are available for a majority of US forests except for woodland ecosystems. We develop a set of models to assess height potential in these systems. Our results suggest that ∼13.5 million ha of forests are unlikely to meet the international definition of forests due to environmental limitations to maximum attainable height. The incorporation of this height criteria in the NGHGI results in a carbon stock transfer of ∼848 Tg from the forest land use to woodland land use (a sub-category of grasslands) with minimal effect on sequestration rates. The development of a forest land use definition sensitive to climatic factors in this study enables a land use classification system that can be responsive to climate change effects on land uses themselves while being more consistent across a host of international and domestic carbon reporting efforts

The Contested Politics of Corporate Governance: The Case of the Global Reporting Initiative

The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) has successfully become institutionalized as the preeminent global framework for voluntary corporate environmental and social reporting. Its success can be attributed to the “institutional entrepreneurs” who analyzed the reporting field and deployed discursive, material, and organizational strategies to change it. GRI has, however, fallen short of the aspirations of its founders to use disclosure to empower nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The authors argue that its trajectory reflects the power relations between members of the field, their strategic choices and compromises, their ability to mobilize alliances and resources, and constraints imposed by the broader institutions of financial and capital markets. The authors draw three notable implications from this study. First, institutional theory needs to pay more attention to economic structures, strategies, and resources. Second, institutional entrepreneurship by relatively weak societal groups such as NGOs is inherently constrained by the structural power of wider institutions and by the compromises required to initiate change. Third, the strategies of NGOs represent a form of power capable of shifting, if not transforming, the field of corporate governance