Investors' behaviour and dynamics of ship prices: a heterogeneous agent model

Distinguishing investors into speculators and operators, and classifying the former group into momentum and contrarian investors, we develop a heterogeneous agent model (HAM) to examine the dynamics of price of second-hand dry bulk ships. The results suggest that momentum strategies based on short-term measures of earnings perform significantly better than the contrarian or passive (buy-and-hold) strategies. The HAM seems to capture the dynamics of vessel prices and the investors’ behavior in the market for ships very well. Finally, an increase in participation of momentum investors tends to increase price volatility, whereas higher demand from contrarian investors seems to lower price variability

Capacity adjustment decisions in the service industry under stochastic revenue: the case of the shipping industry

The paper proposes a model of capacity adjustment in the competitive ocean shipping industry the case of which is almost unique as a flexible response to market signals under operational constraints. While the concept of capacity adjustment is related usually with long-term investment or disinvestment, in the past shipping firms have responded extensively to the cyclicality of the market; a common medium-term solution has been the laying-up of ships. Although not without cost, lay-up allows minimization of losses without conceding assets in an unfavorable market for capital goods which is the case with ships during periods of shipping crises. We validate the hypothesized dependence of changes in the lay-up rates for ships on the speed of mean-reversion and volatility of freight rates on the basis of tanker market data. The results confirm that, for tankers at least, the lay-up decision is a function of more than the relation of prevailing freight rates to operating expenses levels. The speed of mean reversion is significant as faster mean reversion increases the perceived probability of recovery when the market is at low levels. The results can be considered also as proof of a rational response of firms to the rise in the cost of entry and exit of vessels from a full inactivity state as the case has been in recent years

Sustainability and strategic directions in maritime education and training provision: An exploration of employers’ perceptions

The paper explores the importance of sustainability from the perspective of prospective employers of future and existing Maritime Education and Training (MET) graduates. More specifically, it investigates employers’ views on the incorporation of sustainability into MET provision. For this purpose, a questionnaire survey that addresses the concept of sustainability – among other emerging trends - from the angle of maritime education and training was distributed to European shipowning companies in the context of related EU funded research (SkillSea). A total of 23 responses were received but, albeit the relatively small sample, the findings suggest clearly that there is a significant gap between the skills presently acquired through MET. They also reveal the need for METs to develop a strategy aiming at a more comprehensive inclusion of the mega-trend of sustainability as a subject into the curricula of the various types of MET institutions. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing the mismatch between current and future needs and related issues arising for maritime education and training.Peer Reviewe

Dietary fat intake as a risk factor for the development of diabetes. Multinational, multicenter study of the Mediterranean Group for the Study of Diabetes (MGDS)

In the context of the Multinational MGSD Nutrition Study, three groups of subjects were studied: 204 subjects with recently diagnosed diabetes(RDM),42subjectswithundiagnoseddiabetes(UDM)(AmericanDiabetesAssociation criteria—fasting plasma glucose [FPG] 126 mg/dl), and 55 subjects with impaired fasting glucose(IFG)(FPG 110and126mg/dl).Eachgroupwascomparedwithacontrolgroupof nondiabetic subjects, matched one by one for center, sex, age, and BMI. Nutritional habits were evaluated by a dietary history method, validated against the 3-day diet diary. In RDM, the questionnaire referred to the nutritional habits before the diagnosis of diabetes. Demographic data were collected, and anthropometrical and biochemical measurements were taken. RESULTS— Compared with control subjects, RDM more frequently had a family history of diabetes(49.0vs.14.2%;P0.001),exercisedless(exerciseindex53.5vs.64.4;P0.01),and more frequently had sedentary professions (47.5 vs. 27.4%; P 0.001). Carbohydrates contributed less to their energy intake (53.5 vs. 55.1%; P 0.05), whereas total fat (30.2 0.5 vs. 27.8 0.5%; P 0.001) and animal fat (12.2 0.3 vs. 10.8 0.3%; P 0.01) contributed moreandtheplant-to-animalfatratiowaslower(1.50.1vs.1.80.1;P0.01).UDMmore frequentlyhadafamilyhistoryofdiabetes(38.1vs.19.0%;P0.05)andsedentaryprofessions (58.5vs.34.1%;P0.05),carbohydratescontributedlesstotheirenergyintake(47.61.7vs. 52.81.4%;P0.05),totalfat(34.71.5vs.30.41.2%;P0.05)andanimalfat(14.2 0.9 vs. 10.6 0.7%; P 0.05) contributed more, and the plant-to-animal fat ratio was lower (1.6 0.2 vs. 2.3 0.4; P 0.05). IFG differed only in the prevalence of family history of diabetes (32.7 vs. 16.4%; P 0.05). CONCLUSIONS— Our data support the view that increased animal fat intake is associated with the presence of diabetes

Relation of the Mediterranean diet with the incidence of gestational diabetes

Background/objectives: Some studies document relationships of the incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) with individual components of the diet, but studies exploring relationships with patterns of eating are lacking. This observational study aimed to explore a possible relationship between the incidence of GDM and the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) pattern of eating. Subjects/methods: In 10 Mediterranean countries, 1076 consecutive pregnant women underwent a 75-g OGTT at the 24th-32nd week of gestation, interpreted both by the ADA-2010 and the International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG)-2012 criteria. The dietary habits were assessed by a previously validated questionnaire and a Mediterranean Diet Index (MDI) was computed, reflecting the degree of adherence to the MedDiet pattern of eating: a higher MDI denoting better adherence. Results: After adjustment for age, BMI, diabetes in the family, weight gain and energy intake, subjects with GDM, by either criterion, had lower MDI (ADA-2010, 5. 8 vs 6. 3, P=0. 028; IADPSG-2012, 5. 9 vs 6. 4, P<0. 001). Moreover, the incidence of GDM was lower in subjects with better adherence to the MedDiet (higher tertile of MDI distribution), 8. 0% vs 12. 3%, OR=0. 618, P=0. 030 by ADA-2010 and 24. 3% vs 32. 8%, OR=0. 655, P=0. 004 by IADPSG-2012 criteria. In subjects without GDM, MDI was negatively correlated with both fasting plasma glucose and AUC glucose, P<0. 001 for both. Conclusions: Adherence to a MedDiet pattern of eating is associated with lower incidence of GDM and better degree of glucose tolerance, even in women without GDM. The possibility to use MedDiet for the prevention of GDM deserves further testing with intervention studies.peer-reviewe

The roles of tumor necrosis factor-alpha in colon tight junction protein expression and intestinal mucosa structure in a mouse model of acute liver failure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common clinical disease and one of the most severe complications of acute liver failure (ALF). Although the mechanism responsible for SBP is unclear, cytokines play an important role. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) on the structure of the intestinal mucosa and the expression of tight junction (Zona Occludens 1; ZO-1) protein in a mouse model of ALF.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We induced ALF using D-galactosamine/lipopolysaccharide (GalN/LPS) or GalN/TNF-α and assessed the results using transmission electron microscopy, immunohistochemistry, Western blotting, ELISA and real-time quantitative PCR. The effects of administration of anti-TNF-α IgG antibody or anti-TNF-α R1 antibody before administration of GalN/LPS or GalN/TNF-α, respectively, on TNF-α were also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Morphological abnormalities in the intestinal mucosa of ALF mice were positively correlated with serum TNF-α level. Electron microscopic analysis revealed tight junction (TJ) disruptions, epithelial cell swelling, and atrophy of intestinal villi. Gut bacteria invaded the body at sites where TJ disruptions occurred. Expression of ZO-1 mRNA was significantly decreased in both ALF models, as was the level of ZO-1 protein. Prophylactic treatment with either anti-TNF-α IgG antibody or anti-tumor necrosis factor-a receptor1 (anti-TNF-α R1) antibody prevented changes in intestinal tissue ultrastructure and ZO-1 expression.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>TNF-α affects the structure of the intestinal mucosa, decreases expression of ZO-1, and affects the morphology of the colon in a mouse model of ALF. It also may participate in the pathophysiological mechanism of SBP complicated to ALF.</p

Active commuting to and from university, obesity and metabolic syndrome among Colombian university students

Background: There is limited evidence concerning how active commuting (AC) is associated with health benefits in young. The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between AC to and from campus (walking) and obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a sample of Colombian university students. Methods: A total of 784 university students (78.6% women, mean age = 20.1 ± 2.6 years old) participated in the study. The exposure variable was categorized into AC (active walker to campus) and non-AC (non/infrequent active walker to campus: car, motorcycle, or bus) to and from the university on a typical day. MetS was defined in accordance with the updated harmonized criteria of the International Diabetes Federation criteria. Results: The overall prevalence of MetS was 8.7%, and it was higher in non-AC than AC to campus. The percentage of AC was 65.3%. The commuting distances in this AC from/to university were 83.1%, 13.4% and 3.5% for < 2 km, 2- 5 km and > 5 km, respectively. Multiple logistic regressions for predicting unhealthy profile showed that male walking commuters had a lower probability of having obesity [OR = 0.45 (CI 95% 0.25–0.93)], high blood pressure [OR = 0.26 (CI 95% 0.13–0.55)] and low HDL cholesterol [OR = 0.29 (CI 95% 0.14–0.59)] than did passive commuters. Conclusions: Our results suggest that in young adulthood, a key life-stage for the development of obesity and MetS, AC could be associated with and increasing of daily physical activity levels, thereby promoting better cardiometabolic health.This study was part of the project entitled “Body Adiposity Index and Biomarkers of Endothelial and Cardiovascular Health in Adults”, which was funded by Centre for Studies on Measurement of Physical Activity, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad del Rosario (Code N° FIUR DNBG001) and Universidad de Boyacá (Code N° RECT 60)

The Diet of Diabetic Patients in Spain in 2008–2010: Accordance with the Main Dietary Recommendations—A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: No previous study has assessed the diet of the diabetic patients in the general population of an entire country in Europe. This study evaluates accordance of the diet of diabetic adults in Spain with nutritional recommendations of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), American Diabetes Association (ADA), and the Mediterranean diet (MD). Methods and Findings: Cross-sectional study conducted in 2008-2010 among 12,948 persons representative of the population aged ≥18 years in Spain. Usual food consumption was assessed with a dietary history. EASD accordance was defined as ≥6 points on a score of 12 nutritional goals, ADA accordance as ≥3 points on a score of 6 goals, and MD accordance as ≥7 points on the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener. In the 609 diagnosed diabetic individuals, the diet was rich in saturated fat (11.2% of total energy), but trans fat intake was relatively low (1.1% energy) and monounsaturated fat intake was high (16.1% energy). Carbohydrate intake was relatively low (41.1% energy), but sugar intake was high (16.9% energy). Intake of cholesterol (322 mg/day) and sodium (3.1 g/day) was also high, while fiber intake was insufficient (23.8 g/day). EASD accordance was observed in 48.7% diabetic patients, ADA accordance in 46.3%, and MD accordance in 57.4%. The frequency of EASD, ADA and MD accordance was not statistically different between diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetic individuals. Conclusions: Only about half of diabetic patients in Spain have a diet that is consistent with the major dietary recommendations. The lack of dietary differences between diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetic individuals reflects deficiencies in diabetes managementThe ENRICA study is funded by Sanofi-Aventis. Additional funding is obtained from FIS grant PI09/1626 and from the ‘Cátedra UAM de Epidemiología y Control del Riesgo Cardiovascular

Children's and adolescents' rising animal-source food intakes in 1990-2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the worlds child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 1519 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes. (c) 2023, The Author(s)