Species Extinction Risk Might Increase Out Of Reserves: Allowances For Conservation Of Threatened Butterfly Actinote Quadra (lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) Under Global Warming

Climate change is an important factor affecting species dispersal and distribution through time and the accelerated global warming has currently concerned decision makers and conservationists. Because protected areas are spatially static, species extinction risk is generally expected to increase under climate change scenarios as a consequence of range shift and decrease. This study aims to understand the current conservation status of Actinote quadra, a neotropical threatened butterfly species, as well as predict how it will be in the future. By coupling ecological niche modeling and climatic simulations, we predicted the species distribution in different future global warming scenarios (2050 and 2070) and estimated the proportion of species range overlapping protected areas through time. Our findings showed a generalized decrease of the potential distribution of A. quadra in the end of 21st century, with the most prominent range loss predicted to occur out of protected areas. Although climate change will potentially drive A. quadra into reserves, the predicted range collapse would be enough to increase its extinction risk from vulnerable, like currently categorized, to the status of critically endangered in accordance to IUCN red list criteria. Taking into account the fragmented and discontinuous landscapes across the Atlantic Forest's hotspot, we propose a conservation strategy for A. quadra based on potential ecological corridors linking climatically suitable areas and discuss the need for amplifying and connecting the current protected areas to maintain this threatened species at longer time under a global warming scenario. (C) 2015 Associacao Brasileira de Ciencia Ecologica e Conservacao. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.132159165FAPEG [2012/1026.700.1086]Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq

First Record of Trophobiotic Interaction between a Ponerine Ant and a Cicadelid Bug

The interactions of the ant Odontomachus bauri with nymphs of the sap-sucking bug Xedreota tuberculata (Cicadellidae: Ledrinae) were studied on Sipanea aff. (Rubiaceae) along a trail in an upland forest in the Ecological Reserve of Anavilhanas, AM, Brazil. Five complete interactions at day and at night (about 60 minutes) were analyzed. The care of cicadelid nymphs ranged between 12 and 961 seconds

Setting priority conservation management regions to reverse rapid range decline of a key neotropical forest ungulate

Mammals are important components of biodiversity that have been drastically and rapidly impacted by climate change, habitat loss, and anthropogenic pressure. Understanding key species distribution to optimize conservation targets is both urgent and necessary to reverse the current biodiversity crisis. Herein, we applied habitat suitability models for a key Neotropical forest ungulate, the white-lipped peccary (WLP Tayassu pecari), to investigate the effects of climate and landscape modifications on its distribution, which has been drastically reduced in Brazil. We used 318 primary records of WLP to derive habitat suitability maps across Brazil. Our models included bioclimatic, topographic, landscape, and human influence predictors in two modelling approaches. Models including all categories of predictors obtained the highest predictive ability and showed prevalence of suitable areas in forested regions of the country, covering 49% of the Brazilian territory. Filtering out small forest fragments (<2050 ha) reduced the suitable area by 5%, with a further reduction of 4% that was caused by deforestation until 2020, therefore until 2020, the species has suffered a reduction of ~60% from its historical range in Brazil. Of the 40% of the Brazilian territory suitable to WLP, only 12% are protected. In the Atlantic Forest, only half of all protected areas have suitable habitat for WLP and even less in Pantanal (44%), Cerrado (14%) and Caatinga (7%). In a second modelling approach, mapping the areas with suitable climate and those with suitable landscapes separately, allowed us to identify four categories of conservation values, and showed that only 17% of the Brazilian territory has both high landscape and climatic suitability for WLP. Our models can help with complementary conservation management strategies and actions that could be essential in slowing down and possibly reversing current trends of population and geographic range reductions for te species, thereby averting a possible future collapse of forest ecosystem functioning in the Neotropical region

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil

Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease.publishedVersio

Spatial and seasonal distribution in the butterfly Heliconius sara apseudes (Nymphalidae: Heliconiini) in a subtropical forest in southeastern Brazilian coast

Orientador: Woodruff Whitman BensonDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de BiologiaResumo: A ecologia de populações busca entender a variação na abundância das espécies no tempo e no espaço. Espécies que possuem ciclos de vida de curta duração, como a maior parte dos insetos, se tornam especialmente convenientes para essa finalidade. Este estudo examinou os padrões de abundância durante o ano 2009 de uma borboleta tropical próximo ao limite de sua distribuição geográfica, no sudeste do Brasil, em uma localidade subtropical. Neste trabalho, Heliconius sara apseudes foi estudada ao longo de uma estrada no Vale do Rio Quilombo, próximo à cidade de Santos, SP, Brasil, usando a metodologia de captura, marcação, liberação e recaptura (CMLR). Foram marcados 498 indivíduos de Heliconius sara (378 machos e 120 fêmeas) sendo 27,7% destes recapturados. Em 2009, indivíduos adultos de ambos os sexos apareceram na área na última semana de abril, sendo que os machos tiveram pico no início do mês de maio enquanto as fêmeas no fim do mês de abril. Os machos sempre foram muito mais abundantes que as fêmeas, independente da parte da estrada e da época do ano. Durante abril, plantas floridas, que servem de alimento para os adultos, eram abundantes. A abundância de adultos se manteve alta de abril a julho, seguido por um período de crescente raridade até sumir da área no início de outubro. Espacialmente, a abundância de H. sara foi maior na unidade demográfica 2 (final da estrada), próxima à serra, quando comparada com o início. A atividade, número de indivíduos voando, foi maior no final da estrada do que no início. Indivíduos marcados em diferentes segmentos da estrada se mostraram altamente residentes (96%). Os poucos que se dispersaram mais que 100 m (6 entre 138 recapturas) eram machos. O tempo médio de permanência no local foi de 18,8 dias para recapturas, com uma permanência máxima de 86 dias para machos e de 44 dias para fêmeas. Por fim, o comprimento da asa anterior (CAA) das fêmeas foi superior (2mm) ao dos machos. Diferente de H. sara de populações de Carajás - PA e de Linhares - ES que apresentam adultos ativos o ano inteiro, a população do Vale do Rio Quilombo aparentemente recruta de forma concentrada no mês de abril e some sem vestígios em outubro, ou mantêm populações baixas ou persiste em refúgios ecológicos sazonaisAbstract: Population ecology seeks to understand the variation in species abundance in time and space. Species that have life cycles of short duration, like most insects, is especially convenient for this purpose. This study examined patterns of abundance during one year in a tropical butterfly near the limit of geographical distribution, in southeastern Brazil, in a subtropical location. In this work, Heliconius sara apseudes was studied along of road in the Quilombo River Valley, near of Santos' city, SP, Brazil, using the method of capture, marking, release and recapture. 498 individuals were marked (378 males and 120 females) being 27.7% of those recaptured. In 2009, individuals of both sexes appeared in the last week of April, and the males had peaks in the beggining of the month of May while the females at the end of April. Males have always been much more abundant than females, regardless of road part and of the season. During April, flowering plants, which provide food for the adults were abundant. The abundance of adults remained high from April to July, followed by a period of rarity increasing until disappear in the area in early October. Spatially, the abundance of H. sara was higher in the second demographic unit (final Road), near the mountains, when compared with the beginning. The activity, number of individuals flying, was bigger in the end of the road than at the beginning. Individuals marked in different segments of the road were shown highly residents. The few that were dispersed more than 100 m (6 of 138 recaptures) were males. The average length of stay in place was 18.8 days for recaptures, with a maximum stay of 86 days for males and 44 days for females. Finally, the length of forewing of females was higher (2mm bigger) than the males. There was an increase in the size of the wings of males advancing years, perhaps due to better survival of larger butterflies. Different of H. sara populations further north that have active adults throughout the year, the population of Quilombo River Valley apparently recruits in concentrated form in April and disappears without a trace in October, or maintaining low populations or persisting in seasonal ecological refugesMestradoEcologiaMestre em Ecologi

Historical biogeography and conservation of South American rainforests based on niche modeling approach

Orientadores: Vera Nisaka Solferini, Matheus Souza Lima RibeiroTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de BiologiaResumo: A história evolutiva da Amazônia (AM) e da Mata Atlântica (AF) é complexa. Há evidências de que durante o Último Máximo Glacial (LGM) AM e AF eram conectadas e que as mudanças climáticas ocorridas ao longo do tempo ocasionaram diferentes rearranjos geográficos nos biomas. Contudo, não se sabe ao certo qual foi a magnitude das mudanças climáticas e nem como AM e AF eram distribuídas geograficamente no passado. Nessa tese, nós utilizamos técnicas de modelagem de nicho ecológico e simulações paleoclimáticas como forma de inferir dados da biogeografia histórica e gerar subsídios para conservação desses dois biomas. No primeiro capítulo, nós inferimos a existência de três rotas de ligação entre AM e AF durante o LGM oriundas de rearranjos das porções norte/sul da AF e leste/oeste da AM, sugerindo assim que cada uma dessas localidades devem ser consideradas como regiões biogeográficas distintas. Considerando que existiram rearranjos geográficos da AM e da AF inferimos, no segundo capítulo, as áreas climaticamente estáveis desses biomas. Tais áreas apresentam elevados índices de riqueza de espécies, endemismo e diversidade genética e, portanto, devem ser prioritárias para conservação. Sendo assim, nesse capítulo, o objetivo foi testar a eficiência das Áreas Protegidas (PAs) da AM e da AF para fins de conservação. Nossos resultados indicam que as PAs da AM são mais eficientes que as PAs da AF. Considerando a baixa eficiência das PAs da AF em conservar as áreas estáveis do bioma resolvemos testar sua eficiência em conservar uma espécie de borboleta ameaçada de extinção e endêmica da AF, perante o cenário futuro de aquecimento global. Os resultados do Capítulo 3 sugerem a perda de aproximadamente 85% da área de ocorrência dessa espécie e que essa perda ocorrerá em maior escala fora das PAs o que, atrelada a distribuição disjunta, aumentaria o seu risco de extinção. Os Capítulos 2 e 3 sugerem a necessidade de novas práticas conservacionistas que levem em consideração diferentes atributos biológicos como, riqueza de espécies, diversidade genética, endemismo, áreas estáveis e não apenas questões políticas que resultam em PAs ineficientes. Nós demonstramos que, embora sejam baseadas em um atributo exclusivo de espécie, as técnicas de modelagem de nicho ecológico se mostram eficientes na inferência de padrões relativos a biogeografia histórica e conservação de biomasAbstract: The evolutionary history of the Amazon (AM) and the Atlantic Forest (AF) is complex. Evidence supports the idea that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) AM and AF were connected and the climate changes caused different geographical rearrangements in these biomes. However, no one knows for sure what was the magnitude of climate change or how AM and AF were geographically distributed in the past. In this sense, in this thesis we use techniques of ecological niche modeling (ENMs) and paleoclimatic simulations as a way to infer biogeography patterns and generate conservation subsidies for these biomes. In the first chapter, we demonstrated the existence of three connections routes between AM and AF during the LGM and infer that such calls were coming from unequal rearrangements of the northern/southern AF portions and eastern/western AM, suggesting that each of these regions should be considered as distinct biogeographic regions. Based on the idea that were existed geographical rearrangement of the AM and AF from the past to the present, we decided to infer, in the second chapter, which are climatically stable areas of these biomes. The climatically stable areas are known as areas that have high rates of species richness, endemism and genetic diversity and therefore should be a priority areas for conservation. Thus, in the second chapter, our objective was to test the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) of AM and AF in preserving such areas. Our results support the antagonic efficiency because the AM's PAs have four times more efficient than the AF PAs. Considering the minor efficiency, almost all, of the AF's PAs in preserving stable areas we decided to test what the effectiveness of these PAs to conserve an endangered and endemic butterfly species of AF, under global warming scenario. Our results suggest the loss of 85% of the occurrence area and this loss occurs in larger scale out of PAs. However, the loss, linked to the occurrence of disjunct area, can be increases the species extinction risk in the future. In this sense, based on data from evolutionary history of biomes and species distribution, we suggest the need for new conservation practices that take into account different biological attributes as species richness, genetic diversity, endemism, stable areas and not just political issues that resulting in less efficience of PAs. Although the ENMs techniques are based on a species attribute, we demonstrated that ENMs are efficient on inference of historical biogeography, conservation and evolutionary patterns of biomesDoutoradoEcologiaDoutor em Ecologia140771/2013-1CNP