1,014 research outputs found

    The mechanism of the Einstellung (set) effect: A pervasive source of cognitive bias

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    Copyright @ The Authors 2010The eye movements of expert players trying to solve a chess problem show that the first idea that comes to mind directs attention towards sources of information consistent with itself and away from inconsistent information. This bias continues unconsciously even when the player believes he is looking for alternatives. The result is that alternatives to the first idea are ignored. This mechanism for biasing attention ensures a speedy response in familiar situations but it can lead to errors when the first thought that comes to mind is not appropriate. We propose that this mechanism is the source of many cognitive biases from phenomena in problem solving and reasoning, to perceptual errors and failures in memory

    Making mentoring work: The need for rewiring epistemology

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    To help produce expert coaches at both participation and performance levels, a number of governing bodies have established coach mentoring systems. In light of the limited literature on coach mentoring, as well as the risks of superficial treatment by coach education systems, this paper therefore critically discusses the role of the mentor in coach development, the nature of the mentor-mentee relationship and, most specifically, how expertise in the mentee may best be developed. If mentors are to be effective in developing expert coaches then we consequently argue that a focus on personal epistemology is required. On this basis, we present a framework that conceptualizes mentee development on this level through a step by step progression, rather than unrealistic and unachievable leap toward expertise. Finally, we consider the resulting implications for practice and research with respect to one-on-one mentoring, communities of practice, and formal coach education

    PSYCHOLOGY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY

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    Key Words error and bias, tradeoff reasoning, prospect theory, accountability pressures, internalization s Abstract Organized around several major theoretical traditions in international relations, this essay suggests which literature in psychology should be of greatest interest to different kinds of international relations scholars. New work in cognitive social psychology and behavioral decision theory simultaneously expands on and qualifies earlier error-and-bias portraits of the foreign policy maker, thereby enriching our understanding of internal divisions within the realist camp. Work on bounded rationality in competitive markets and mixed-motive games, as well as the literature on the power of human emotions to shape judgments of what represents an equitable allocation of scarce resources or a just resolution of conflicts of interest, can inform neo-institutionalist and constructivist theories. Developments in cross-cultural social psychology shed light on constructivist arguments about the creation and maintenance of international social order that typically rest on assumptions about decision making that are qualitatively different from realist and institutionalist approaches to world politics

    An extreme firm-specific news sentiment asymmetry based trading strategy

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    News sentiment has been empirically observed to have impact on financial market returns. In this study, we investigate firm-specific news from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics data from 2003 to 2014 and propose an optimal trading strategy based on a sentiment shock score and a sentiment trend score which measure extreme positive and negative sentiment levels for individual stocks. The intuition behind this approach is that the impact of events that generate extreme investor sentiment changes tends to have long and lasting effects to market movement and hence provides better prediction to market returns. We document that there exists an optimal signal region for both indicators. And we also show extreme positive sentiment provides better a signal than extreme negative sentiment, which presents an asymmetric market behavior in terms of news sentiment impact. The back test results show that extreme positive sentiment generates robust and superior trading signals in all market conditions, and its risk-adjusted returns significantly outperform the S&P 500 index over the same time period

    Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

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    This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget's ladder. The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions

    Decisional Conflict and User Acceptance of Multicriteria Decision-Making Aids *

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    Despite the development of increasingly sophisticated and refined multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, an examination of the experimental evidence indicates that users most often prefer relatively unsophisticated methods. In this paper, we synthesize theories and empirical findings from the psychology of judgment and choice to provide a new theoretical explanation for such user preferences. Our argument centers on the assertion that the MCDM method preferred by decision makers is a function of the degree to which the method tends to introduce decisional conflict. The model we develop relates response mode, decision strategy, and the salience of decisional conflict to user preferences among decision aids. We then show that the model is consistent with empirical results in MCDM studies. Next, the role of decisional conflict in problem formulation aids is briefly discussed. Finally, we outline future research needed to thoroughly test the theoretical mechanisms we have proposed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73461/1/j.1540-5915.1991.tb00371.x.pd
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