Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

An HST/COS legacy survey of intervening SiIII absorption in the extended gaseous halos of low-redshift galaxies

Doubly ionized silicon (SiIII) is a powerful tracer of diffuse ionized gas inside and outside of galaxies. It can be observed in the local Universe in ultraviolet (UV) absorption against bright extragalactic background sources. We here present an extensive study of intervening SiIII-selected absorbers and their relation to the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of galaxies at low redshift (z<=0.1), based on the analysis of UV absorption spectra along 303 extragalactic lines of sight obtained with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) on board the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Along a total redshift path of Dz=24 we identify 69 intervening SiIII systems that all show associated absorption from other low and high ions. We derive a bias-corrected number density of dN/dz(SiIII)=2.5 for absorbers with column densities log N(SiIII)>12.2. We develop a geometrical model for the absorption-cross section of the CGM around the local galaxy population and find excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observations. We further compare redshifts and positions of the absorbers with that of ~64,000 galaxies using archival galaxy-survey data. For the majority of the absorbers we identify possible host galaxies within 300 km/s of the absorbers and derive impact parameters rho<200 kpc, demonstrating that the spatial distributions of SiIII absorbers and galaxies are highly correlated. Our study indicates that the majority of SiIII-selected absorbers in our sample trace the CGM of nearby galaxies within their virial radii at a typical covering fraction of ~70 per cent. From a detailed ionization model we estimate that diffuse gas in the CGM around galaxies, as traced by SiIII, contains substantially more baryonic mass than their neutral interstellar medium.Comment: 32 pages, 17 figures; final version accepted for publication in A&

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both

Controlled lasing from active optomechanical resonators

Planar microcavities with distributed Bragg reflectors (DBRs) host, besides confined optical modes, also mechanical resonances due to stop bands in the phonon dispersion relation of the DBRs. These resonances have frequencies in the sub-terahertz (10E10-10E11 Hz) range with quality factors exceeding 1000. The interaction of photons and phonons in such optomechanical systems can be drastically enhanced, opening a new route toward manipulation of light. Here we implemented active semiconducting layers into the microcavity to obtain a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL). Thereby three resonant excitations -photons, phonons, and electrons- can interact strongly with each other providing control of the VCSEL laser emission: a picosecond strain pulse injected into the VCSEL excites long-living mechanical resonances therein. As a result, modulation of the lasing intensity at frequencies up to 40 GHz is observed. From these findings prospective applications such as THz laser control and stimulated phonon emission may emerge

The problem of moisture in poultry house litter, Bulletin, no. 338

The Bulletin is a publication of the New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, College of Life Sciences and Agriculture, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire

Predicting shape and stability of air–water interface on superhydrophobic surfaces with randomly distributed, dissimilar posts

A mathematical framework developed to calculate the shape of the air–water interface and predict the stability of a microfabricated superhydrophobicsurface with randomly distributed posts of dissimilar diameters and heights is presented. Using the Young–Laplace equation, a second-order partial differential equation is derived and solved numerically to obtain the shape of the interface, and to predict the critical hydrostatic pressure at which the superhydrophobicity vanishes in a submersed surface. Two examples are given for demonstration of the method’s capabilities and accuracy

Effect of fiber orientation on shape and stability of air-water interface on submerged superhydrophobic electrospun thin coatings

To better understand the role of fiber orientation on the stability of superhydrophobicelectrospun coatings under hydrostaticpressures, an integro-differential equation is developed from the balance of forces across the air–water interface between the fibers. This equation is solved numerically for a series of superhydrophobicelectrospun coatings comprised of random and orthogonal fiber orientations to obtain the exact 3D shape of the air–water interface as a function of hydrostaticpressure. More important, this information is used to predict the pressure at which the coatings start to transition from the Cassie state to the Wenzel state, i.e., the so-called critical transition pressure. Our results indicate that coatings composed of orthogonal fibers can withstand higher elevated hydrostaticpressures than those made up of randomly orientated fibers. Our results also prove that thin superhydrophobic coatings can better resist the elevated pressures. The modeling methodology presented here can be used to design nanofibrous superhydrophobic coatings for underwater applications

Erenumab in chronic migraine: Patient-reported outcomes in a randomized double-blind study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of erenumab, a human monoclonal antibody targeting the calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor, on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), headache impact, and disability in patients with chronic migraine (CM). METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 667 adults with CM were randomized (3:2:2) to placebo or erenumab (70 or 140 mg monthly). Exploratory endpoints included migraine-specific HRQoL (Migraine-Specific Quality-of-Life Questionnaire [MSQ]), headache impact (Headache Impact Test-6 [HIT-6]), migraine-related disability (Migraine Disability Assessment [MIDAS] test), and pain interference (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System [PROMIS] Pain Interference Scale short form 6b). RESULTS: Improvements were observed for all endpoints in both erenumab groups at month 3, with greater changes relative to placebo observed at month 1 for many outcomes. All 3 MSQ domains were improved from baseline with treatment differences for both doses exceeding minimally important differences established for MSQ-role function-restrictive (≥3.2) and MSQ-emotional functioning (≥7.5) and for MSQ-role function-preventive (≥4.5) for erenumab 140 mg. Changes from baseline in HIT-6 scores at month 3 were -5.6 for both doses vs -3.1 for placebo. MIDAS scores at month 3 improved by -19.4 days for 70 mg and -19.8 days for 140 mg vs -7.5 days for placebo. Individual-level minimally important difference was achieved by larger proportions of erenumab-treated participants than placebo for all MSQ domains and HIT-6. Lower proportions of erenumab-treated participants had MIDAS scores of severe (≥21) or very severe (≥41) or PROMIS scores ≥60 at month 3. CONCLUSIONS: Erenumab-treated patients with CM experienced clinically relevant improvements across a broad range of patient-reported outcomes. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02066415. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that for patients with CM, erenumab treatment improves HRQoL, headache impact, and disability