Coupled thermomechanical modeling using dissimilar geometries in arpeggio.

Performing coupled thermomechanical simulations is becoming an increasingly important aspect of nuclear weapon (NW) safety assessments in abnormal thermal environments. While such capabilities exist in SIERRA, they have thus far been used only in a limited sense to investigate NW safety themes. An important limiting factor is the difficulty associated with developing geometries and meshes appropriate for both thermal and mechanical finite element models, which has limited thermomechanical analysis to simplified configurations. This work addresses the issue of how to perform coupled analyses on models where the underlying geometries and associated meshes are different and tailored to their relevant physics. Such an approach will reduce the model building effort and enable previously developed single-physics models to be leveraged in future coupled simulations. A combined-environment approach is presented in this report using SIERRA tools, with quantitative comparisons made between different options in SIERRA. This report summarizes efforts on running a coupled thermomechanical analysis using the SIERRA Arpeggio code

Multiscale modeling for fluid transport in nanosystems.

Atomistic-scale behavior drives performance in many micro- and nano-fluidic systems, such as mircrofludic mixers and electrical energy storage devices. Bringing this information into the traditionally continuum models used for engineering analysis has proved challenging. This work describes one such approach to address this issue by developing atomistic-to-continuum multi scale and multi physics methods to enable molecular dynamics (MD) representations of atoms to incorporated into continuum simulations. Coupling is achieved by imposing constraints based on fluxes of conserved quantities between the two regions described by one of these models. The impact of electric fields and surface charges are also critical, hence, methodologies to extend finite-element (FE) MD electric field solvers have been derived to account for these effects. Finally, the continuum description can have inconsistencies with the coarse-grained MD dynamics, so FE equations based on MD statistics were derived to facilitate the multi scale coupling. Examples are shown relevant to nanofluidic systems, such as pore flow, Couette flow, and electric double layer

Theoretical and experimental studies of electrified interfaces relevant to energy storage

Advances in technology for electrochemical energy storage require increased understanding of electrolyte/electrode interfaces, including the electric double layer structure, and processes involved in charging of the interface, and the incorporation of this understanding into quantitative models. Simplified models such as Helmholtz's electric double-layer (EDL) concept don't account for the molecular nature of ion distributions, solvents, and electrode surfaces and therefore cannot be used in predictive, high-fidelity simulations for device design. This report presents theoretical results from models that explicitly include the molecular nature of the electrical double layer and predict critical electrochemical quantities such as interfacial capacitance. It also describes development of experimental tools for probing molecular properties of electrochemical interfaces through optical spectroscopy. These optical experimental methods are designed to test our new theoretical models that provide descriptions of the electric double layer in unprecedented detail

Enhanced molecular dynamics for simulating porous interphase layers in batteries.

Understanding charge transport processes at a molecular level using computational techniques is currently hindered by a lack of appropriate models for incorporating anistropic electric fields in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. An important technological example is ion transport through solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) layers that form in many common types of batteries. These layers regulate the rate at which electro-chemical reactions occur, affecting power, safety, and reliability. In this work, we develop a model for incorporating electric fields in MD using an atomistic-to-continuum framework. This framework provides the mathematical and algorithmic infrastructure to couple finite element (FE) representations of continuous data with atomic data. In this application, the electric potential is represented on a FE mesh and is calculated from a Poisson equation with source terms determined by the distribution of the atomic charges. Boundary conditions can be imposed naturally using the FE description of the potential, which then propagates to each atom through modified forces. The method is verified using simulations where analytical or theoretical solutions are known. Calculations of salt water solutions in complex domains are performed to understand how ions are attracted to charged surfaces in the presence of electric fields and interfering media

Bridging the gap between atomistic phenomena and continuum behavior in electrochemical energy storage processes.

Abstract Not Provide

A mathematical framework for multiscale science and engineering : the variational multiscale method and interscale transfer operators.

This report is a collection of documents written as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project A Mathematical Framework for Multiscale Science and Engineering: The Variational Multiscale Method and Interscale Transfer Operators. We present developments in two categories of multiscale mathematics and analysis. The first, continuum-to-continuum (CtC) multiscale, includes problems that allow application of the same continuum model at all scales with the primary barrier to simulation being computing resources. The second, atomistic-to-continuum (AtC) multiscale, represents applications where detailed physics at the atomistic or molecular level must be simulated to resolve the small scales, but the effect on and coupling to the continuum level is frequently unclear

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.8–14.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.8–71.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.0–27.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.3–27.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.3–23.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.4–87.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.1–83.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.1–60.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally.publishedVersio

Children’s and adolescents’ rising animal-source food intakes in 1990–2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents’ physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the world’s child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 15–19 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes.publishedVersio

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707