Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations

Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971–2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2% for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20% to 5%, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20% to 20%. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment

Metal contamination assessment in water column and surface sediments of a warm monomictic man-made lake:Sabalan Dam Reservoir, Iran

Abstract In this study, metal concentrations in the water column and surface sediment of the Sabalan Dam Reservoir (SDR) were determined. Moreover, heavy metal pollution index (HPI), contamination index (CI), heavy metal evaluation index (HEI), enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), consensus-based SQGs (C-BSQGs), and mean probable effect concentration quotients (mPECQs) were evaluated for water and sediments of SDR. It was observed that metal concentrations in river entry sediment were lower, but those in river entry water were higher than corresponding values in the vicinity of the dam structure. The HPI values of water samples taken from 10 m depth in the center of SDR exceeded the critical limit, due to high concentrations of arsenic. However, according to CI, the reservoir water was not contaminated. The HEI values indicated contamination of SDR water with metals at 10 m depth. A comparison of water quality indices revealed that HEI was the most reliable index in water quality assessment, while CI and HPI were not sufficiently accurate. For SQGs, As and Cu concentrations in sediments were high, but mPECQ, Igeo, and EF revealed some degree of sediment pollution in SDR. The calculated EF values suggested minor anthropogenic enrichment of sediment with Fe, Co, V, and Ni; moderate anthropogenic enrichment with As and Mn; and moderate to severe anthropogenic enrichment with Cu. A comparison of SQG values revealed that the threshold effect and probable effect levels were the most reliable metrics in the assessment of sediment toxicity. Statistical analysis indicated similarities between metal concentrations in the center of the reservoir and near to the dam structure, as a result of similar sediment deposition behavior at these points, while higher flow velocity at the river entry point limited deposition of fine particles and associated metals

Complex dynamics of water quality mixing in a warm mono-mictic reservoir

Abstract Cycling of water quality constituents in lakes is affected by thermal stratification and homo-thermal conditions and other factors such as oligotrophication, eutrophication, and microbial activities. In addition, hydrological variability can cause greater differences in water residence time and cycling of constituents in man-made lakes (reservoirs) than in natural lakes. Thus, investigations are needed on vertical mixing of constituents in new impounded reservoirs, especially those constructed to supply domestic water. In this study, sampling campaigns were conducted in the Sabalan reservoir, Iran, to investigate vertical changes in constituent concentrations during the year in periods with thermal stratification and homo-thermal conditions. The results revealed incomplete mixing of constituents, even during cold months when the reservoir was homo-thermal. These conditions interacted to create a bottom-up regulated reservoir with sediment that released settled pollutants, impairing water quality in the Sabalan reservoir during both thermal stratification and homo-thermal conditions. Analysis of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations revealed that the reservoir was eutrophic. External pollution loads, internal cycling of pollutants diffusing out from bottom sediments, reductions in inflow to the reservoir, and reservoir operations regulated vertical mixing and concentrations of constituents in the Sabalan reservoir throughout the year

Anthropogenic depletion of Iran’s aquifers

Abstract Global groundwater assessments rank Iran among countries with the highest groundwater depletion rate using coarse spatial scales that hinder detection of regional imbalances between renewable groundwater supply and human withdrawals. Herein, we use in situ data from 12,230 piezometers, 14,856 observation wells, and groundwater extraction points to provide ground-based evidence about Iran’s widespread groundwater depletion and salinity problems. While the number of groundwater extraction points increased by 84.9% from 546,000 in 2002 to over a million in 2015, the annual groundwater withdrawal decreased by 18% (from 74.6 to 61.3 km³/y) primarily due to physical limits to fresh groundwater resources (i.e., depletion and/or salinization). On average, withdrawing 5.4 km³/y of nonrenewable water caused groundwater tables to decline 10 to 100 cm/y in different regions, averaging 49 cm/y across the country. This caused elevated annual average electrical conductivity (EC) of groundwater in vast arid/semiarid areas of central and eastern Iran (16 out of 30 subbasins), indicating “very high salinity hazard” for irrigation water. The annual average EC values were generally lower in the wetter northern and western regions, where groundwater EC improvements were detected in rare cases. Our results based on high-resolution groundwater measurements reveal alarming water security threats associated with declining fresh groundwater quantity and quality due to many years of unsustainable use. Our analysis offers insights into the environmental implications and limitations of water-intensive development plans that other water-scarce countries might adopt

Iran’s agriculture in the anthropocene

Abstract The anthropogenic impacts of development and frequent droughts have limited Iran’s water availability. This has major implications for Iran’s agricultural sector which is responsible for about 90% of water consumption at the national scale. This study investigates if declining water availability impacted agriculture in Iran. Using the Mann‐Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator methods, we explored the changes in Iran’s agricultural production and area during the 1981–2013 period. Despite decreasing water availability during this period, irrigated agricultural production and area continuously increased. This unsustainable agricultural development, which would have been impossible without the overabstraction of surface and ground water resources, has major long‐term water, food, environmental, and human security implications for Iran