Haplotype assignment of longitudinal viral deep-sequencing data using co-variation of variant frequencies

Longitudinal deep sequencing of viruses can provide detailed information about intra-host evolutionary dynamics including how viruses interact with and transmit between hosts. Many analyses require haplotype reconstruction, identifying which variants are co-located on the same genomic element. Most current methods to perform this reconstruction are based on a high density of variants and cannot perform this reconstruction for slowly evolving viruses. We present a new approach, HaROLD (HAplotype Reconstruction Of Longitudinal Deep sequencing data), which performs this reconstruction based on identifying co-varying variant frequencies using a probabilistic framework. We illustrate HaROLD on both RNA and DNA viruses with synthetic Illumina paired read data created from mixed human cytomegalovirus and norovirus genomes, and clinical datasets of human cytomegalovirus and norovirus samples, demonstrating high accuracy, especially when longitudinal samples are available

Estimating the Distribution of Selection Coefficients from Phylogenetic Data Using Sitewise Mutation-Selection Models

Estimation of the distribution of selection coefficients of mutations is a long-standing issue in molecular evolution. In addition to population-based methods, the distribution can be estimated from DNA sequence data by phylogenetic-based models. Previous models have generally found unimodal distributions where the probability mass is concentrated between mildly deleterious and nearly neutral mutations. Here we use a sitewise mutation–selection phylogenetic model to estimate the distribution of selection coefficients among novel and fixed mutations (substitutions) in a data set of 244 mammalian mitochondrial genomes and a set of 401 PB2 proteins from influenza. We find a bimodal distribution of selection coefficients for novel mutations in both the mitochondrial data set and for the influenza protein evolving in its natural reservoir, birds. Most of the mutations are strongly deleterious with the rest of the probability mass concentrated around mildly deleterious to neutral mutations. The distribution of the coefficients among substitutions is unimodal and symmetrical around nearly neutral substitutions for both data sets at adaptive equilibrium. About 0.5% of the nonsynonymous mutations and 14% of the nonsynonymous substitutions in the mitochondrial proteins are advantageous, with 0.5% and 24% observed for the influenza protein. Following a host shift of influenza from birds to humans, however, we find among novel mutations in PB2 a trimodal distribution with a small mode of advantageous mutations

cellmlmanip and chaste_codegen: automatic CellML to C++ code generation with fixes for singularities and automatically generated Jacobians

Hundreds of different mathematical models have been proposed for describing electrophysiology of various cell types. These models are quite complex (nonlinear systems of typically tens of ODEs and sometimes hundreds of parameters) and software packages such as the Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment (Chaste) C++ library have been designed to run simulations with these models in isolation or coupled to form a tissue simulation. The complexity of many of these models makes sharing and translating them to new simulation environments difficult. CellML is an XML format that offers a widely-adopted solution to this problem. This paper specifically describes the capabilities of two new Python tools: the cellmlmanip library for reading and manipulating CellML models; and chaste_codegen, a CellML to C++ converter. These tools provide a Python 3 replacement for a previous Python 2 tool (called PyCML) and they also provide additional new features that this paper describes. Most notably, they can generate analytic Jacobians without the use of proprietary software, and also find singularities occurring in equations and automatically generate and apply linear approximations to prevent numerical problems at these points

chaste codegen: automatic CellML to C++ code generation with fixes for singularities and automatically generated Jacobians

Hundreds of different mathematical models have been proposed for describing electrophysiology of various cell types. These models are quite complex (nonlinear systems of typically tens of ODEs and sometimes hundreds of parameters) and software packages such as the Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment (Chaste) C++ library have been designed to run simulations with these models in isolation or coupled to form a tissue simulation. The complexity of many of these models makes sharing and translating them to new simulation environments difficult. CellML is an XML format that offers a solution to this problem and has been widely-adopted. This paper specifically describes the capabilities of chaste_codegen, a Python-based CellML to C++ converter based on the new cellmlmanip Python library for reading and manipulating CellML models. While chaste_codegen is a Python 3 redevelopment of a previous Python 2 tool (called PyCML) it has some additional new features that this paper describes. Most notably, chaste_codegen has the ability to generate analytic Jacobians without the use of proprietary software, and also to find singularities occurring in equations and automatically generate and apply linear approximations to prevent numerical problems at these points

Rapid feedback on hospital onset SARS-CoV-2 infections combining epidemiological and sequencing data.

BACKGROUND: Rapid identification and investigation of healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs) is important for suppression of SARS-CoV-2, but the infection source for hospital onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs) cannot always be readily identified based only on epidemiological data. Viral sequencing data provides additional information regarding potential transmission clusters, but the low mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 can make interpretation using standard phylogenetic methods difficult. METHODS: We developed a novel statistical method and sequence reporting tool (SRT) that combines epidemiological and sequence data in order to provide a rapid assessment of the probability of HCAI among HOCI cases (defined as first positive test >48 hr following admission) and to identify infections that could plausibly constitute outbreak events. The method is designed for prospective use, but was validated using retrospective datasets from hospitals in Glasgow and Sheffield collected February-May 2020. RESULTS: We analysed data from 326 HOCIs. Among HOCIs with time from admission ≥8 days, the SRT algorithm identified close sequence matches from the same ward for 160/244 (65.6%) and in the remainder 68/84 (81.0%) had at least one similar sequence elsewhere in the hospital, resulting in high estimated probabilities of within-ward and within-hospital transmission. For HOCIs with time from admission 3-7 days, the SRT probability of healthcare acquisition was >0.5 in 33/82 (40.2%). CONCLUSIONS: The methodology developed can provide rapid feedback on HOCIs that could be useful for infection prevention and control teams, and warrants further prospective evaluation. The integration of epidemiological and sequence data is important given the low mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 and its variable incubation period. FUNDING: COG-UK HOCI funded by COG-UK consortium, supported by funding from UK Research and Innovation, National Institute of Health Research and Wellcome Sanger Institute.COG-UK HOCI funded by COG-UK consortium, supported by funding from UK Research and Innovation, National Institute of Health Research and Wellcome Sanger Institute

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi : A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals

Identifying Changes in Selective Constraints: Host Shifts in Influenza

The natural reservoir of Influenza A is waterfowl. Normally, waterfowl viruses are not adapted to infect and spread in the human population. Sometimes, through reassortment or through whole host shift events, genetic material from waterfowl viruses is introduced into the human population causing worldwide pandemics. Identifying which mutations allow viruses from avian origin to spread successfully in the human population is of great importance in predicting and controlling influenza pandemics. Here we describe a novel approach to identify such mutations. We use a sitewise non-homogeneous phylogenetic model that explicitly takes into account differences in the equilibrium frequencies of amino acids in different hosts and locations. We identify 172 amino acid sites with strong support and 518 sites with moderate support of different selection constraints in human and avian viruses. The sites that we identify provide an invaluable resource to experimental virologists studying adaptation of avian flu viruses to the human host. Identification of the sequence changes necessary for host shifts would help us predict the pandemic potential of various strains. The method is of broad applicability to investigating changes in selective constraints when the timing of the changes is known

Transcriptional diversity during lineage commitment of human blood progenitors.

Blood cells derive from hematopoietic stem cells through stepwise fating events. To characterize gene expression programs driving lineage choice, we sequenced RNA from eight primary human hematopoietic progenitor populations representing the major myeloid commitment stages and the main lymphoid stage. We identified extensive cell type-specific expression changes: 6711 genes and 10,724 transcripts, enriched in non-protein-coding elements at early stages of differentiation. In addition, we found 7881 novel splice junctions and 2301 differentially used alternative splicing events, enriched in genes involved in regulatory processes. We demonstrated experimentally cell-specific isoform usage, identifying nuclear factor I/B (NFIB) as a regulator of megakaryocyte maturation-the platelet precursor. Our data highlight the complexity of fating events in closely related progenitor populations, the understanding of which is essential for the advancement of transplantation and regenerative medicine.The work described in this article was primarily supported by the European Commission Seventh Framework Program through the BLUEPRINT grant with code HEALTH-F5-2011-282510 (D.H., F.B., G.C., J.H.A.M., K.D., L.C., M.F., S.C., S.F., and S.P.G.). Research in the Ouwehand laboratory is further supported by program grants from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR, www.nihr.ac.uk; to A.A., M.K., P.P., S.B.G.J., S.N., and W.H.O.) and the British Heart Foundation under nos. RP-PG-0310-1002 and RG/09/12/28096 (www.bhf.org.uk; to A.R. and W.J.A.). K.F. and M.K. were supported by Marie Curie funding from the NETSIM FP7 program funded by the European Commission. The laboratory receives funding from the NHS Blood and Transplant for facilities. The Cambridge BioResource (www.cambridgebioresource.org.uk), the Cell Phenotyping Hub, and the Cambridge Translational GenOmics laboratory (www.catgo.org.uk) are supported by an NIHR grant to the Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The BRIDGE-Bleeding and Platelet Disorders Consortium is supported by the NIHR BioResource—Rare Diseases (http://bioresource.nihr.ac.uk/; to E.T., N.F., and Whole Exome Sequencing effort). Research in the Soranzo laboratory (L.V., N.S., and S. Watt) is further supported by the Wellcome Trust (Grant Codes WT098051 and WT091310) and the EU FP7 EPIGENESYS initiative (Grant Code 257082). Research in the Cvejic laboratory (A. Cvejic and C.L.) is funded by the Cancer Research UK under grant no. C45041/A14953. S.J.S. is funded by NIHR. M.E.F. is supported by a British Heart Foundation Clinical Research Training Fellowship, no. FS/12/27/29405. E.B.-M. is supported by a Wellcome Trust grant, no. 084183/Z/07/Z. Research in the Laffan laboratory is supported by Imperial College BRC. F.A.C., C.L., and S. Westbury are supported by Medical Research Council Clinical Training Fellowships, and T.B. by a British Society of Haematology/NHS Blood and Transplant grant. R.J.R. is a Principal Research Fellow of the Wellcome Trust, grant no. 082961/Z/07/Z. Research in the Flicek laboratory is also supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant no. 095908) and EMBL. Research in the Bertone laboratory is supported by EMBL. K.F. and C.v.G. are supported by FWO-Vlaanderen through grant G.0B17.13N. P.F. is a compensated member of the Omicia Inc. Scientific Advisory Board. This study made use of data generated by the UK10K Consortium, derived from samples from the Cohorts arm of the project.This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on 26/9/14 in volume 345, number 6204, DOI: 10.1126/science.1251033. This version will be under embargo until the 26th of March 2015

Effectiveness of rapid SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing in supporting infection control for hospital-onset COVID-19 infection : multicenter, prospective study

Background: Viral sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has been used for outbreak investigation, but there is limited evidence supporting routine use for infection prevention and control (IPC) within hospital settings. Methods: We conducted a prospective non-randomised trial of sequencing at 14 acute UK hospital trusts. Sites each had a 4-week baseline data-collection period, followed by intervention periods comprising 8 weeks of 'rapid' (<48h) and 4 weeks of 'longer-turnaround' (5-10 day) sequencing using a sequence reporting tool (SRT). Data were collected on all hospital onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs; detected ≥48h from admission). The impact of the sequencing intervention on IPC knowledge and actions, and on incidence of probable/definite hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) was evaluated. Results: A total of 2170 HOCI cases were recorded from October 2020-April 2021, corresponding to a period of extreme strain on the health service, with sequence reports returned for 650/1320 (49.2%) during intervention phases. We did not detect a statistically significant change in weekly incidence of HAIs in longer-turnaround (incidence rate ratio 1.60, 95%CI 0.85-3.01; P=0.14) or rapid (0.85, 0.48-1.50; P=0.54) intervention phases compared to baseline phase. However, IPC practice was changed in 7.8% and 7.4% of all HOCI cases in rapid and longer-turnaround phases, respectively, and 17.2% and 11.6% of cases where the report was returned. In a 'per-protocol' sensitivity analysis there was an impact on IPC actions in 20.7% of HOCI cases when the SRT report was returned within 5 days. Capacity to respond effectively to insights from sequencing was breached in most sites by the volume of cases and limited resources. Conclusion: While we did not demonstrate a direct impact of sequencing on the incidence of nosocomial transmission, our results suggest that sequencing can inform IPC response to HOCIs, particularly when returned within 5 days. Funding: COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) [grant code: MC_PC_19027], and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. Clinical trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04405934

Accompanying data for the paper

This zip file contains sequence alignments (*.phyl) and phylogenetic trees (*.tree) for the PB2 and RBCL protein-coding genes analysed in the paper. It also contains estimates of fitness values at codon sites for the two proteins. The fitness estimates can be used to calculate the relative non-synonymous substitution rate as explained in the paper (e.g. Eq 3.1)