Why Family Farms Are Increasingly Using Wage Labour?

In many developed countries, the share of wage employment out of the total agricultural labour force has been increasing for the last ten years. Using data from French agricultural censuses, we present an analysis of the factors that influence households' decisions about whether to work on the family farm or to work outside, and about the use of wage labour. Studying how the effects of these factors have varied between 1988 and 2000 enables us to highlight the different mechanisms that have led to an increase in permanent wage employment during that period. In particular, we show that family labour and permanent wage labour have become nearly equivalent in 2000, whereas that was not the case in 1988.agricultural employees, farms, family labour, Labor and Human Capital, C34, C35, J22, J43,

Persistance du chômage et insertion

Partant de données individuelles riches sur les trajectoires de 1 565 individus sortants de bas niveaux scolaires en 1986, nous étudions ici l’effet d’un passage en chômage (ou en inactivité) sur la probabilité de connaître de nouveau du chômage (ou de l’inactivité). Une technique robuste et un traitement original des problèmes de chevauchement nous permet de tester certains effets stylisés sur les trajectoires. Nous soulignons le caractère prédictif du chômage en début de vie active. Nous distinguons également un chômage plutôt d’exclusion en fin de période à opposer au chômage plutôt aléatoire de début de période. Enfin la qualité de l’insertion paraît déterminante dans la persistance du chômage, puisque les « mieux » insérés semblent protégés du chômage répété. Une distinction selon la zone du premier emploi montre des risques de chômage moins forts à la campagne.We use detailed survey data from 1986 to analyze 1565 trajectories over 7 years of outgoing individuals with low levels of education to study the effect of a period of unemployment (or inactivity) on the probability of being unemployed (or inactive) a second time. A robust technique and an original statistical treatment of the overlapping problems enables us to test stylized effects on the trajectories. We highlight the predictive character of unemployment at the beginning of one's active work life. We also find evidence that people encounter unemployment but retain a certain probability of insertion as opposed to stronger exclusion from the workforce at the end of the period. This patter is in contrast to unemployment at the beginning of the period which is found to be somewhat random. Finally the quality of first employment appears to be a determinant of the persistence of unemployment, since those who are "better" inserted seem to be protected from spells of repeated unemployment. According to the geographic location of first employment, we show that the risk of repeated unemployment is lower in the countryside relative to urban areas

Ressources humaines et territoires ruraux

Note Lirhe 440 (07-3)L'hypothèse centrale de ce travail collectif est que la dotation en ressources naturelles et même en capital physique des territoires ruraux n'apparaît pas comme le premier ressort de leur développement. Celui-ci est essentiellement fonction de leur capacité à innover socialement et économiquement, à mobiliser les ressources humaines dont ils disposent et à en attirer de nouvelles. L'impulsion initiale peut être issue d'entrepreneurs, d'associations ou d'autorités politiques locales. Mais, dans tous les cas, c'est la capacité collective d'un grand nombre d'acteurs divers à constituer des réseaux, à agir en partenariat, qui est au cœur du développement rura

Persistance du chômage et insertion

We use detailed survey data from 1986 to analyze 1565 trajectories over 7 years of outgoing individuals with low levels of education to study the effect of a period of unemployment (or inactivity) on the probability of being unemployed (or inactive) a second time. A robust technique and an original statistical treatment of the overlapping problems enables us to test stylized effects on the trajectories. We highlight the predictive character of unemployment at the beginning of one's active work life. We also find evidence that people encounter unemployment but retain a certain probability of insertion as opposed to stronger exclusion from the workforce at the end of the period. This patter is in contrast to unemployment at the beginning of the period which is found to be somewhat random. Finally the quality of first employment appears to be a determinant of the persistence of unemployment, since those who are "better" inserted seem to be protected from spells of repeated unemployment. According to the geographic location of first employment, we show that the risk of repeated unemployment is lower in the countryside relative to urban areas. Partant de données individuelles riches sur les trajectoires de 1 565 individus sortants de bas niveaux scolaires en 1986, nous étudions ici l’effet d’un passage en chômage (ou en inactivité) sur la probabilité de connaître de nouveau du chômage (ou de l’inactivité). Une technique robuste et un traitement original des problèmes de chevauchement nous permet de tester certains effets stylisés sur les trajectoires. Nous soulignons le caractère prédictif du chômage en début de vie active. Nous distinguons également un chômage plutôt d’exclusion en fin de période à opposer au chômage plutôt aléatoire de début de période. Enfin la qualité de l’insertion paraît déterminante dans la persistance du chômage, puisque les « mieux » insérés semblent protégés du chômage répété. Une distinction selon la zone du premier emploi montre des risques de chômage moins forts à la campagne.

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome associated with COVID-19: An Emulated Target Trial Analysis.

RATIONALE: Whether COVID patients may benefit from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) compared with conventional invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of ECMO on 90-Day mortality vs IMV only Methods: Among 4,244 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 included in a multicenter cohort study, we emulated a target trial comparing the treatment strategies of initiating ECMO vs. no ECMO within 7 days of IMV in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FiO2 <80 or PaCO2 ≥60 mmHg). We controlled for confounding using a multivariable Cox model based on predefined variables. MAIN RESULTS: 1,235 patients met the full eligibility criteria for the emulated trial, among whom 164 patients initiated ECMO. The ECMO strategy had a higher survival probability at Day-7 from the onset of eligibility criteria (87% vs 83%, risk difference: 4%, 95% CI 0;9%) which decreased during follow-up (survival at Day-90: 63% vs 65%, risk difference: -2%, 95% CI -10;5%). However, ECMO was associated with higher survival when performed in high-volume ECMO centers or in regions where a specific ECMO network organization was set up to handle high demand, and when initiated within the first 4 days of MV and in profoundly hypoxemic patients. CONCLUSIONS: In an emulated trial based on a nationwide COVID-19 cohort, we found differential survival over time of an ECMO compared with a no-ECMO strategy. However, ECMO was consistently associated with better outcomes when performed in high-volume centers and in regions with ECMO capacities specifically organized to handle high demand. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Migrations ville-campagne et chômage : un test d'interdépendance

A test of interdependence between urban-rural migrations and unemployment. A considerable amount of migrations appears to be economically motivated. The behavior of individuals at the micro level is not only an expression of preferences but reflects their situations vis-a-vis the labor market. In particular, the problem of correlation between unemployment and migration is always raised but it is often evacuated by lack of suitable data. We present here a straightforward statistical method, relied on multivariate counting processes theory, which allows to study the interdependence between two couples of states : to be or not to be unemployed, to reside in an urban or a rural area. We use an adapted test procedure which compares two "parallel" transitions intensities to point out significative differences between the couples of transitions and then to detect the interaction between participation and migration processes. In an application to data from the INSEE Training-Professionnal Qualification survey of 1985, we find that the urban or rural localization affects heavily the probability of falling unemployed with a significantly higher "risk" in town. On the opposite, the exit from unemployment does not depend on the localization. We improve the accuracy of our results by splitting our sample into respectively men or women and young or older people, as the various transitions are very inequally distributed among ages and sexes.Nous présentons une méthode simple, adaptée de la théorie des processus ponctuels multivariés, qui permet l'analyse de l'interdépendance de deux couples d'états : d'une part les situations de chômage ou d'emploi, d'autre part le lieu de résidence, urbain ou rural. Les données sont issues de l'enquête Formation-Qualification professionnelle 1985 de l'INSEE. On constate en particulier que l'influence de la zone de résidence sur la perte d'emploi est très affirmée, avec un risque de chômage significativement supérieur en ville. En revanche, la sortie du chômage ne dépend pas du lieu de résidence. On affine les résultats en distinguant les individus selon leur sexe ou leur âge.Tahar Gabriel. Migrations ville-campagne et chômage : un test d'interdépendance. In: Cahiers d'Economie et sociologie rurales, N°36, 3e trimestre 1995. pp. 27-47

Contribution à la modélisation de l'insertion professionnelle

Gabriel Tahar, Ein Beitrag zur Definition eines berufiichen Eingliederungsmodells. Ausgehend von den Daten über die individuellen Laufbahnen einer Population Jugendiicher mit niedrigem Schulniveau, die beim Abgang aus der Schule zwischen 1985 und 1993 befragt wurden, möchte der vorliegende Beitrag drei Stufen der beruflichen Integration analysieren : Auf dem Aggregationsniveau werden die beruflichen Laufbahnen als punktuelle Prozesse betrachtet, bei denen im engen Rahmen der zeitliche Werdegang der Individuen zwischen den Hauptetappen, die ihre Situation zu jedem Zeitpunkt gegenuber dem Arbeitsmarkt kennzeichnen, analysiert wird. Auf der individuellen Ebene wird der Zeitpunkt der beruflichen Eingliederung als der Moment definiert, wo keine längeren Phasen der Arbeitslosigkeit mehr verzeichnet werden, wobei es sich durchaus auch um befristete Arbeitsverträge handeln darf. Um die Heterogenität zwischen den Individuen zu behan deln, versucht man, die Unterschiede zwischen den individuellen Laufbahnen der Eingliederung zu messen, wobei ein Abstand bestimmt wird, der auf beobachtbarer Wahrscheinlichkeit der Übergange zwischen dauerhaften oder unsicheren Beschäftigungen, zwischen Ausbildung und Arbeitslosigkeit beruht. Diese drei Analyseniveaus situieren gut die drei Vergleichselemente, die beim Übergang einer jugendlichen Population in die Arbeitswelt gewohnfich untersucht werden : die Zeit bis zur Eingliederung, die Art der angestrebten Karriere, die Ursachen individueller Unterschiede. Diese Untersuchung möchte einen Beitrag zur Verbesserung eines statistischen Modells der beruflicnen Eingliederung leisten : die entwickelten « Makro- » und « Mikro » Forschungsansätze zur Integration machen den Unterschied zwischen einer Defintion auf globaler Ebene und einer auf individueller Ebene deutlich.Gabriel Tahar, Modeling the transition from school to work. Based on a survey on the individual trajectories taken by a population of young people with low educational qualifications who were consulted upon leaving school in 1985 and again in 1993, professional integration was analysed using the following three-stage procedure. In the aggregate, the processes involved in transition from school to work were taken to be point processes, and the individuals' movements in the course of time from one status to another were analysed in terms of how they stood in relation to the labour market. At the individual level, the date of integration was defined as that after which no lengthy spells of unemployment occurred, sometimes because permanent jobs were secured. To account for the inter-individual heterogeneity, the differences between individual trajectories were then specified and analysed statistically, based on the observed probability of moving from one status (long- or short-term employment, training, and unemployment) to another. This three-stage analysis integrates the three criteria generally used to analyse the patterns of transition of populations of young people into working life, namely : the time required to achieve professional integration, the type of career predictably ahead, and the reasons for any interindividual differences. In this study, it was attempted to carry the statistical modelling of professional integration a step further, since the « micro » and « macro » approaches previously developed have clearly established the difference between statistical and individual definitions.À partir de données portant sur les trajectoires individuelles d'une population de jeunes de bas niveau scolaire interrogés entre leur sortie d'école, en 1985, et 1993, on propose ici une analyse en trois étapes de l'insertion professionnelle : - au niveau agrégé, les trajectoires professionnelles sont considérées comme des processus ponctuels analysant sous contraintes le cheminement dans le temps des individus entre les principaux états qui caractérisent à chaque instant leur situation vis-à-vis du marché du travail ; - au niveau individuel, on est amené à définir une date d'insertion correspondant au moment où ne surviennent plus de longues périodes de chômage, les contrats de travail pouvant être à durée déterminée ; - Pour traiter de l'hétérogénéité entre individus, on s'intéresse à une mesure des écarts entre les trajectoires individuelles d'insertion en spécifiant une distance fondée sur les probabilités de passage observées entre situations d'emplois stable ou précaire, de formation et de chômage. Ces trois niveaux d'analyse distincts situent bien les trois éléments des comparaisons auxquelles on se livre communément en matière d'entrée d'une population de jeunes dans la vie active : le temps mis à s'insérer, le type de carrière prévisible, l'origine des différences individuelles. Ce travail essaie de progresser dans la modélisation statistique de l'insertion professionnelle : les approches « macro » ou « micro » de l'insertion que l'on développe montrent bien la différence entre définition de niveau statistique et définition au plan individuel.Tahar Gabriel. Contribution à la modélisation de l'insertion professionnelle. In: Formation Emploi. N.62, 1998. pp. 15-31