Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in three phases: neutral, warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña). While classifying El Niño and La Niña is relatively straightforward, El Niño events can be broadly classified into two types: Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP). Differentiating between CP and EP events is currently dependent on both the method and observational dataset used. In this study, we create a new classification scheme using supervised machine learning trained on 18 observational and reanalysis products. This builds on previous work by identifying classes of events using the temporal evolution of sea surface temperature in multiple regions across the tropical Pacific. By applying this new classifier to seven single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) we investigate both the internal variability and forced changes in each type of ENSO event, where events identified behave similar to those observed. It is currently debated whether the observed increase in the frequency of CP events after the late 1970s is due to climate change. We found it to be within the range of internal variability in the SMILEs. When considering future changes, we do not project a change in CP frequency or amplitude under a strong warming scenario (RCP8.5/SSP370) and we find model differences in EP El Niño and La Niña frequency and amplitude projections. Finally, we find that models show differences in projected precipitation and SST pattern changes for each event type that do not seem to be linked to the Pacific mean state SST change, although the SST and precipitation changes in individual SMILEs are linked. Our work demonstrates the value of combining machine learning with climate models, and highlights the need to use SMILEs when evaluating ENSO in climate models due to the large spread of results found within a single model due to internal variability alone

Towards a representative reference for MRI-based human axon radius assessment using light microscopy

Non-invasive assessment of axon radii via MRI bears great potential for clinical and neuroscience research as it is a main determinant of the neuronal conduction velocity. However, there is a lack of representative histological reference data at the scale of the cross-section of MRI voxels for validating the MRI-visible, effective radius (reff). Because the current gold standard stems from neuroanatomical studies designed to estimate the bulk-determined arithmetic mean radius (rarith) on small ensembles of axons, it is unsuited to estimate the tail-weighted reff. We propose CNN-based segmentation on high-resolution, large-scale light microscopy (lsLM) data to generate a representative reference for reff. In a human corpus callosum, we assessed estimation accuracy and bias of rarith and reff. Furthermore, we investigated whether mapping anatomy-related variation of rarith and reff is confounded by low-frequency variation of the image intensity, e.g., due to staining heterogeneity. Finally, we analyzed the error due to outstandingly large axons in reff. Compared to rarith, reff was estimated with higher accuracy (maximum normalized-root-mean-square-error of reff: 8.5 %; rarith: 19.5 %) and lower bias (maximum absolute normalized-mean-bias-error of reff: 4.8 %; rarith: 13.4 %). While rarith was confounded by variation of the image intensity, variation of reff seemed anatomy-related. The largest axons contributed between 0.8 % and 2.9 % to reff. In conclusion, the proposed method is a step towards representatively estimating reff at MRI voxel resolution. Further investigations are required to assess generalization to other brains and brain areas with different axon radii distributions

Prognostic factors in stage III-IV adrenocortical carcinomas (ACC): an European Network for the Study of Adrenal Tumor (ENSAT) study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical course of advanced adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is heterogeneous. Our study aimed primarily to refine and make headway in the prognostic stratification of advanced ACC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with advanced ENSAT ACC (stage III or stage IV) at diagnosis registered between 2000 and 2009 in the ENSAT database were enrolled. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). Parameters of potential prognostic relevance were selected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out: model 1 'before surgery'; model 2 'post-surgery'. RESULTS: Four hundred and forty-four patients with advanced ENSAT ACC (stage III: 210; stage IV: 234) were analyzed. After a median follow-up of 55.2 months, the median OS was 24 months. A modified ENSAT (mENSAT) classification was validated: stage III (invasion of surrounding tissues/organs or the vena renalis/cava) and stage IVa, IVb, IVc (2, 3 or >3 metastatic organs, including N, respectively). Two- or 5-year OS was 73%, 46%, 26% and 15% or 50%, 15%, 14% and 2% for stages III, IVa, IVb and IVc, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, mENSAT stages (stages IVa, IVb, or IVc, respectively) were significantly correlated with OS (P 6 and/or Ki67 ≥20%, P = 0.06) in model 2. CONCLUSION: The mENSAT classification and GRAS parameters (Grade, R status, Age and Symptoms) were found to best stratify the prognosis of patients with advanced ACC

Longitudinal Evaluation of the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Testicular Function in 8 Boys with Adrenal Hypoplasia Congenita (AHC) Due to NR0B1 Mutations

BACKGROUND:Boys carrying mutations in the NR0B1 gene develop adrenal hypoplasia congenita (AHC) and impaired sexual development due to the combination of hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (HH) and primary defects in spermatogenesis. METHODS:We analysed the evolution of hypothalamic-pituitary-testicular function of 8 boys with AHC due to NR0B1 mutations. Our objective was to characterize and monitor the progressive deterioration of this function. RESULTS:The first symptoms appeared in the neonatal period (n = 5) or between 6 months and 8.7 years (n = 3). Basal plasma adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) concentrations increased in all boys, whilst cortisol levels decreased in one case. The natremia was equal or below 134 mmol/L and kaliemia was over 5 mmol/L. All had increased plasma renin. In 3 of 4 patients diagnosed in the neonatal period and evaluated during the first year, the basal plasma gonadotropins concentrations, and their response to gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) test (n = 2), and those of testosterone were normal. The plasma inhibin B levels were normal in the first year of life. With the exception of two cases these concentrations decreased to below the normal for age. Anti-Müllerian hormone concentrations were normal for age in all except one case, which had low concentrations before the initiation of testosterone treatment. In 3 of the 8 cases the gene was deleted and the remaining 5 cases carried frameshift mutations that are predicted to introduce a downstream nonsense mutation resulting in a truncated protein. CONCLUSIONS:The decreases in testosterone and inhibin B levels indicated a progressive loss of testicular function in boys carrying NR0B1 mutations. These non-invasive examinations can help to estimate the age of the testicular degradation and cryopreservation of semen may be considered in these cases as investigational procedure with the aim of restoring fertility

CT Characteristics of Pheochromocytoma: Relevance for the Evaluation of Adrenal Incidentaloma.

BACKGROUND: Up to 7% of all adrenal incidentalomas (AIs) are pheochromocytomas (PCCs). In the evaluation of AI, it is generally recommended that PCC be excluded by measurement of plasma-free or 24-hour urinary fractionated metanephrines. However, recent studies suggest that biochemical exclusion of PCC not be performed for lesions with CT characteristics of an adrenocortical adenoma (ACA). AIM: To determine the proportion of PCCs with ACA-like attenuation or contrast washout on CT. METHODS: For this multicenter retrospective study, two central investigators independently analyzed the CT reports of 533 patients with 548 histologically confirmed PCCs. Data on tumor size, unenhanced Hounsfield units (HU), absolute percentage washout (APW), and relative percentage washout (RPW) were collected in addition to clinical parameters. RESULTS: Among the 376 PCCs for which unenhanced attenuation data were available, 374 had an attenuation of >10 HU (99.5%). In the two exceptions (0.5%), unenhanced attenuation was exactly 10 HU, which lies just within the range of ≤10 HU that would suggest a diagnosis of ACA. Of 76 PCCs with unenhanced HU > 10 and available washout data, 22 (28.9%) had a high APW and/or RPW, suggestive of ACA. CONCLUSION: Based on the lack of PCCs with an unenhanced attenuation of <10 HU and the low proportion (0.5%) of PCCs with an attenuation of 10 HU, it seems reasonable to abstain from biochemical testing for PCC in AIs with an unenhanced attenuation of ≤10 HU. The assessment of contrast washout, however, is unreliable for ruling out PCC

Characterisation of CART-containing neurons and cells in the porcine pancreas, gastro-intestinal tract, adrenal and thyroid glands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The peptide CART is widely expressed in central and peripheral neurons, as well as in endocrine cells. Known peripheral sites of expression include the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, the pancreas, and the adrenal glands. In rodent pancreas CART is expressed both in islet endocrine cells and in nerve fibers, some of which innervate the islets. Recent data show that CART is a regulator of islet hormone secretion, and that CART null mutant mice have islet dysfunction. CART also effects GI motility, mainly via central routes. In addition, CART participates in the regulation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal-axis. We investigated CART expression in porcine pancreas, GI-tract, adrenal glands, and thyroid gland using immunocytochemistry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CART immunoreactive (IR) nerve cell bodies and fibers were numerous in pancreatic and enteric ganglia. The majority of these were also VIP IR. The finding of intrinsic CART containing neurons indicates that pancreatic and GI CART IR nerve fibers have an intrinsic origin. No CART IR endocrine cells were detected in the pancreas or in the GI tract. The adrenal medulla harboured numerous CART IR endocrine cells, most of which were adrenaline producing. In addition CART IR fibers were frequently seen in the adrenal cortex and capsule. The capsule also contained CART IR nerve cell bodies. The majority of the adrenal CART IR neuronal elements were also VIP IR. CART IR was also seen in a substantial proportion of the C-cells in the thyroid gland. The majority of these cells were also somatostatin IR, and/or 5-HT IR, and/or VIP IR.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>CART is a major neuropeptide in intrinsic neurons of the porcine GI-tract and pancreas, a major constituent of adrenaline producing adrenomedullary cells, and a novel peptide of the thyroid C-cells. CART is suggested to be a regulatory peptide in the porcine pancreas, GI-tract, adrenal gland and thyroid.</p

Preoperative medical treatment in Cushing&apos;s syndrome : frequency of use and its impact on postoperative assessment : data from ERCUSYN

Background: Surgery is the definitive treatment of Cushing's syndrome (CS) but medications may also be used as a first-line therapy. Whether preoperative medical treatment (PMT) affects postoperative outcome remains controversial. Objective: (1) Evaluate how frequently PMT is given to CS patients across Europe; (2) examine differences in preoperative characteristics of patients who receive PMT and those who undergo primary surgery and (3) determine if PMT influences postoperative outcome in pituitary-dependent CS (PIT-CS). Patients and methods: 1143 CS patients entered into the ERCUSYN database from 57 centers in 26 countries. Sixty-nine percent had PIT-CS, 25% adrenal-dependent CS (ADR-CS), 5% CS from an ectopic source (ECT-CS) and 1% were classified as having CS from other causes (OTH-CS). Results: Twenty per cent of patients took PMT. ECT-CS and PIT-CS were more likely to receive PMT compared to ADR-CS (P < 0.001). Most commonly used drugs were ketoconazole (62%), metyrapone (16%) and a combination of both (12%). Median (interquartile range) duration of PMT was 109 (98) days. PIT-CS patients treated with PMT had more severe clinical features at diagnosis and poorer quality of life compared to those undergoing primary surgery (SX) (P < 0.05). Within 7 days of surgery, PIT-CS patients treated with PMT were more likely to have normal cortisol (P < 0.01) and a lower remission rate (P < 0.01). Within 6 months of surgery, no differences in morbidity or remission rates were observed between SX and PMT groups. Conclusions: PMT may confound the interpretation of immediate postoperative outcome. Follow-up is recommended to definitely evaluate surgical results