Non-inferiority trials: are they inferior? A systematic review of reporting in major medical journals

OBJECTIVE: To assess the adequacy of reporting of non-inferiority trials alongside the consistency and utility of current recommended analyses and guidelines. DESIGN: Review of randomised clinical trials that used a non-inferiority design published between January 2010 and May 2015 in medical journals that had an impact factor >10 (JAMA Internal Medicine, Archives Internal Medicine, PLOS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine). DATA SOURCES: Ovid (MEDLINE). METHODS: We searched for non-inferiority trials and assessed the following: choice of non-inferiority margin and justification of margin; power and significance level for sample size; patient population used and how this was defined; any missing data methods used and assumptions declared and any sensitivity analyses used. RESULTS: A total of 168 trial publications were included. Most trials concluded non-inferiority (132; 79%). The non-inferiority margin was reported for 98% (164), but less than half reported any justification for the margin (77; 46%). While most chose two different analyses (91; 54%) the most common being intention-to-treat (ITT) or modified ITT and per-protocol, a large number of articles only chose to conduct and report one analysis (65; 39%), most commonly the ITT analysis. There was lack of clarity or inconsistency between the type I error rate and corresponding CIs for 73 (43%) articles. Missing data were rarely considered with (99; 59%) not declaring whether imputation techniques were used. CONCLUSIONS: Reporting and conduct of non-inferiority trials is inconsistent and does not follow the recommendations in available statistical guidelines, which are not wholly consistent themselves. Authors should clearly describe the methods used and provide clear descriptions of and justifications for their design and primary analysis. Failure to do this risks misleading conclusions being drawn, with consequent effects on clinical practice

Meta-analytical methods to identify who benefits most from treatments: daft, deluded, or deft approach?

Identifying which individuals benefit most from particular treatments or other interventions underpins so-called personalised or stratified medicine. However, single trials are typically underpowered for exploring whether participant characteristics, such as age or disease severity, determine an individual’s response to treatment. A meta-analysis of multiple trials, particularly one where individual participant data (IPD) are available, provides greater power to investigate interactions between participant characteristics (covariates) and treatment effects. We use a published IPD meta-analysis to illustrate three broad approaches used for testing such interactions. Based on another systematic review of recently published IPD meta-analyses, we also show that all three approaches can be applied to aggregate data as well as IPD. We also summarise which methods of analysing and presenting interactions are in current use, and describe their advantages and disadvantages. We recommend that testing for interactions using within-trials information alone (the deft approach) becomes standard practice, alongside graphical presentation that directly visualises this

Making Associativity Operational

The purpose of this paper is to propose an operational idea for developing algebraic thinking in the absence of alphanumeric symbols. The paper reports on a design experiment encouraging preschool children to use the associative property algebraically. We describe the theoretical basis of the design, the tasks used, and examples of algebraic thinking in 5–6-year-old children. Theoretically, the paper makes a critical distinction between operational and structural meanings of the notion of equality. We argue that mathematical thinking involving equality among young learners can comprise both an operational and a structural conception and that the operational conception has a side that is productively linked to the structural conception. Using carefully designed hands-on tasks, the crux of the paper is the realization of algebraic thinking (in verbal mathematics) as operationally experienced in the ability to transform one number structure, with a quantity that is subject to change, into another through equality-preserving transformations

Effects of local hypothermia-rewarming on physiology, metabolism and inflammation of acutely injured human spinal cord.

In five patients with acute, severe thoracic traumatic spinal cord injuries (TSCIs), American spinal injuries association Impairment Scale (AIS) grades A-C, we induced cord hypothermia (33 °C) then rewarming (37 °C). A pressure probe and a microdialysis catheter were placed intradurally at the injury site to monitor intraspinal pressure (ISP), spinal cord perfusion pressure (SCPP), tissue metabolism and inflammation. Cord hypothermia-rewarming, applied to awake patients, did not cause discomfort or neurological deterioration. Cooling did not affect cord physiology (ISP, SCPP), but markedly altered cord metabolism (increased glucose, lactate, lactate/pyruvate ratio (LPR), glutamate; decreased glycerol) and markedly reduced cord inflammation (reduced IL1β, IL8, MCP, MIP1α, MIP1β). Compared with pre-cooling baseline, rewarming was associated with significantly worse cord physiology (increased ICP, decreased SCPP), cord metabolism (increased lactate, LPR; decreased glucose, glycerol) and cord inflammation (increased IL1β, IL8, IL4, IL10, MCP, MIP1α). The study was terminated because three patients developed delayed wound infections. At 18-months, two patients improved and three stayed the same. We conclude that, after TSCI, hypothermia is potentially beneficial by reducing cord inflammation, though after rewarming these benefits are lost due to increases in cord swelling, ischemia and inflammation. We thus urge caution when using hypothermia-rewarming therapeutically in TSCI

Estimands: bringing clarity and focus to research questions in clinical trials

Precise specification of the research question and associated treatment effect of interest is essential in clinical research, yet recent work shows that they are often incompletely specified. The ICH E9 (R1) Addendum on Estimands and Sensitivity Analysis in Clinical Trials introduces a framework that supports researchers in precisely and transparently specifying the treatment effect they aim to estimate in their clinical trial. In this paper, we present practical examples to demonstrate to all researchers involved in clinical trials how estimands can help them to specify the research question, lead to a better understanding of the treatment effect to be estimated and hence increase the probability of success of the trial

"An Impediment to Living Life": Why and How Should We Measure Stiffness in Polymyalgia Rheumatica?

Objectives: To explore patients’ concepts of stiffness in polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR), and how they think stiffness should be measured. Methods: Eight focus groups were held at three centres involving 50 patients with current/previous PMR. Each group had at least one facilitator and one rapporteur making field notes. An interview schedule was used to stimulate discussion. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed using an inductive thematic approach. Results: Major themes identified were: symptoms: pain, stiffness and fatigue; functional impact; impact on daily schedule; and approaches to measurement. The common subtheme for the experience of stiffness was “difficulty in moving”, and usually considered as distinct from the experience of pain, albeit with a variable overlap. Some participants felt stiffness was the “overwhelming” symptom, in that it prevented them carrying out “fundamental activities” and “generally living life”. Diurnal variation in stiffness was generally described in relation to the daily schedule but was not the same as stiffness severity. Some participants suggested measuring stiffness using a numeric rating scale or a Likert scale, while others felt that it was more relevant and straightforward to measure difficulty in performing everyday activities rather than about stiffness itself. Conclusions: A conceptual model of stiffness in PMR is presented where stiffness is an important part of the patient experience and impacts on their ability to live their lives. Stiffness is closely related to function and often regarded as interchangeable with pain. From the patients’ perspective, visual analogue scales measuring pain and stiffness were not the most useful method for reporting stiffness; participants preferred numerical rating scales, or assessments of function to reflect how stiffness impacts on their daily lives. Assessing function may be a pragmatic solution to difficulties in quantifying stiffness

What we talk about when we talk about "global mindset": managerial cognition in multinational corporations

Recent developments in the global economy and in multinational corporations have placed significant emphasis on the cognitive orientations of managers, giving rise to a number of concepts such as “global mindset” that are presumed to be associated with the effective management of multinational corporations (MNCs). This paper reviews the literature on global mindset and clarifies some of the conceptual confusion surrounding the construct. We identify common themes across writers, suggesting that the majority of studies fall into one of three research perspectives: cultural, strategic, and multidimensional. We also identify two constructs from the social sciences that underlie the perspectives found in the literature: cosmopolitanism and cognitive complexity and use these two constructs to develop an integrative theoretical framework of global mindset. We then provide a critical assessment of the field of global mindset and suggest directions for future theoretical and empirical research

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified

Reference based sensitivity analysis for longitudinal trials with protocol deviation via multiple imputation

Randomised controlled trials provide essential evidence for the evaluation of new and existing medical treatments. Unfortunately the statistical analysis is often complicated by the occurrence of protocol deviations, which mean we cannot always measure the intended outcomes for individuals who deviate, resulting in a missing data problem. In such settings, however one approaches the analysis, an untestable assumption about the distribution of the unobserved data must be made. To understand how far the results depend on these assumptions, the primary analysis should be supplemented by a range of sensitivity analyses, which explore how the conclusions vary over a range of different credible assumptions for the missing data. In this article we describe a new command, mimix, that can be used to perform reference based sensitivity analyses for randomised controlled trials with longitudinal quantitative outcome data, using the approach proposed by Carpenter, Roger, and Kenward (2013). Under this approach, we make qualitative assumptions about how individuals' missing outcomes relate to those observed in relevant groups in the trial, based on plausible clinical scenarios. Statistical analysis then proceeds using the method of multiple imputation

The mismeasure of ape social cognition

In his classic analysis, The Mismeasure of Man, Gould (1981) demolished the idea that intelligence was an inherent, genetic trait of different human groups by emphasizing, among other things, (a) its sensitivity to environmental input, (b) the incommensurate pre-test preparation of different human groups, and (c) the inadequacy of the testing contexts, in many cases. According to Gould, the root cause of these oversights was confirmation bias by psychometricians, an unwarranted commitment to the idea that intelligence was a fixed, immutable quality of people. By virtue of a similar, systemic interpretive bias, in the last two decades, numerous contemporary researchers in comparative psychology have claimed human superiority over apes in social intelligence, based on two-group comparisons between postindustrial, Western Europeans and captive apes, where the apes have been isolated from European styles of social interaction, and tested with radically different procedures. Moreover, direct comparisons of humans with apes suffer from pervasive lapses in argumentation: Research designs in wide contemporary use are inherently mute about the underlying psychological causes of overt behavior. Here we analyze these problems and offer a more fruitful approach to the comparative study of social intelligence, which focuses on specific individual learning histories in specific ecological circumstances