Stalking

Stalking is a term commonly used to refer to unwanted or obsessive attention by an individual or group toward another person. Stalking behaviors are related to harassment and intimidation and may include following the victim in person or monitoring them. According to a 2002 report by the National Center for Victims of Crime “Virtually any unwanted contact between two people [that intends] to directly or indirectly communicates a threat or places the victim in fear can be considered stalking" although in practice the legal standard is usually somewhat stricter.The effects of stalkers on their victims are immense and can result in significant psychiatric morbidity. Only recently, however, has the behaviour become the subject of scientific study, and research remains in its infancy

Determination of forecasts errors arising from different components of model physics and dynamics

This paper addresses a procedure to extract error estimates for the physical and dynamical components of a forecast model. This is a two-step process in which contributions to the forecast tendencies from individual terms of the model equations are first determined using an elaborate bookkeeping of the forecast. The second step regresses these estimates of tendencies from individual terms of the model equations against the observed total tendencies. This process is executed separately for the entire horizontal and vertical transform grid points of a global model. The summary of results based on the corrections to the physics and dynamics provided by the regression coefficients highlights the component errors of the model arising from its formulation. This study provides information on geographical and vertical distribution of forecast errors contributed by features such as nonlinear advective dynamics, the rest of the dynamics, deep cumulus convection, large-scale condensation physics, radiative processes, and the rest of physics. Several future possibilities from this work are also discussed in this paper

Removal of hexavalent chromium using chitosan prepared from shrimp shells

Contamination of the aqueous environment by heavy metals and due to the discharge of metal containing effluents into the water bodies is one of the environmental issues of the century. Thus, in this work, the main concern has been the preparation of chitin and chitosan from the raw materials of shrimp shells and the characterization of the prepared chitosan by field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The work was then shifted to investigate the potentiality of Cr+6 adsorption with the prepared chitosan. The controlled parameters of adsorption process were studied. The percentage of Cr+6 removal using the shrimp chitosan was 64.29%.Keywords: Shrimp shells, chitosan, adsorption, chiti

On the weakening of Hurricane Lili, October 2002

This paper addresses the weakening of Hurricane Lili of October 2002 just before it made landfall in Louisiana. This hurricane weakened from a category 4 storm on October 3, 2002 at 0000 UTC to a category 1 storm on October 3, 2002 at 1300 UTC. This sudden drop in intensity has been a subject of considerable interest. In this paper we explore a forecast model diagnostic approach that explores the contribution to the hurricane intensity changes arising from a number of dynamical and physical possibilities. Running several versions of a global model at very high resolution, the relative contribution to the intensity drop of Lili arising from cooler sea surface temperatures, dry air advection into the storm, advective non-linear dynamics, non-advective dynamics, and shallow and deep cumulus convection was examined. This line of inquiry led to the conclusion that dry air advection from the north into the storm and the slightly cold sea surface temperatures were not the primary contribution to the observed pressure rise by 22 hPa. The primary contribution to the pressure rise was found to be the 'rest of dynamics' (the non-advective dynamics). The shallow convection contributed slightly to an overall cooling, i.e. a weakening of the warm core of Lili. The effects of deep cumulus convection appeared to be opposite, i.e. towards maintaining a strong storm. A primary term in the 'rest of dynamics', the advection of Earth's angular momentum into the storm, is identified as a major contributor for the intensity change in the analysis. This feature resembles an intrusion of dry air into the core of the storm. This intrusion contributes to a reduction of spin and an overall rapid weakening of the hurricane. The angular momentum partitioning appears quite revealing on the sudden demise of Lili

Seasonal climate forecasts of the South Asian monsoon using multiple coupled models

This study addresses seasonal climate forecasts using coupled atmosphere-ocean multimodels. Using as many as 67 different seasonal-forecast runs per season from a variety of coupled (atmosphere-ocean) models consensus seasonal forecasts have been prepared from about 4500 experiments. These include the European Center's DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction) database and a suite of Florida State University (FSU) models (based on different combinations of physical parametrizations). This is one of the largest databases on coupled models. The monsoon region was selected to examine the predictability issue. The methodology involves construction of seasonal anomalies of all model forecasts for a number of variables including precipitation, 850 hPa winds, 2-m/surface temperatures, and sea surface temperatures. This study explores the skills of the ensemble mean and the FSU multimodel superensemble. The metrics for forecast evaluation include computation of hindcast and verification anomalies from model/ observed climatology, time-series of specific climate indices, and standard deterministic ensemble mean scores such as anomaly correlation coefficient and root mean square error. The results were deliberately prepared to match the metrics used by European DEMETER models. Invariably in all modes of evaluation, the results from the FSU multimodel superensemble demonstrate greater skill for most of the variables tested here than those obtained in earlier studies. The specific inquiry of this study was on this question: is it going to be wetter or drier, warmer or colder than the long-term recent climatology of the monsoon; and where and when during the next season?These results are most encouraging, and they suggest that this vast database and the superensemble methodology are able to provide some useful answers to the seasonal monsoon forecast issue compared to the use of single climate models or from the conventional ensemble averaging

A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts

In this paper, a multi-model ensemble approach with statistical correction for seasonal precipitation forecasts using a coupled DEMETER model data set is presented. Despite the continuous improvement of coupled models, they have serious systematic errors in terms of the mean, the annual cycle and the interannual variability; consequently, the predictive skill of extended forecasts remains quite low. One of the approaches to the improvement of seasonal prediction is the empirical weighted multi-model ensemble, or superensemble, combination. In the superensemble approach, the different model forecasts are statistically combined during the training phase using multiple linear regression, with the skill of each ensemble member implicitly factored into the superensemble forecast. The skill of a superensemble relies strongly on the past performance of the individual member models used in its construction. The algorithm proposed here involves empirical orthogonal function (EOF) filtering of the actual data set prior to the construction of a multi-model ensemble or superensemble as an alternative solution for seasonal prediction. This algorithm generates a new data set from the input multi-model data set by finding a consistent spatial pattern between the observed analysis and the individual model forecast. This procedure is a multiple linear regression problem in the EOF space. The newly generated EOF-filtered data set is then used as an input data set for the construction of a multi-model ensemble and superensemble. The skill of forecast anomalies is assessed using statistics of categorical forecast, spatial anomaly correlation and root mean square (RMS) errors. The various verifications show that the unbiased multi-model ensemble of DEMETER forecasts improves the prediction of spatial patterns (i.e. the anomaly correlation), but it shows poor skill in categorical forecast. Due to the removal of seasonal mean biases of the different models, the forecast errors of the bias-corrected multi-model ensemble and superensemble are already quite small. Based on the anomaly correlation and RMS measures, the forecasts produced by the proposed method slightly outperform the other conventional forecasts

Hurricane Forecasts with a Mesoscale Suite of Models

A suite of mesoscale models are being used in the present study to examine experimental forecast performance for tracks and intensity of hurricanes covering the years 2004, 2005 and 2006. Fifty-eight storm cases are being considered in the present study. Most of the mesoscale models are being run at a horizontal resolution at around 9 km. This includes the WRF (two versions), MM5, HWRF, GFDL and DSHP. The performances of forecasts are evaluated using absolute errors for storm track and intensity. Our consensus forecasts utilize ensemble mean and a bias corrected ensemble mean for these member models on the mesoscale and the large-scale model suites. Comparing the forecast statistics for the mesoscale suite, the large-scale suite and the combined suite we find that the mesoscale suite provided the best track forecasts for 60 and 72 h. However, the forecast from the combined suite of model were also very close to the track errors of the mesoscale at 60 and 72 h. Overall track forecast errors were least for the combined suite. The intensity forecasts of the bias corrected ensemble mean of the mesoscale suite were comparable to DSHP and GFDL at the later part of the forecast periods

Finding the microfoundations of organizational ambidexterity - Demystifying the role of top management behavioural integration

Organizational ambidexterity in a firm is significantly influenced by the behavioural integration of the Top Management Team (TMT). Researchers observe that ambidextrous firms are associated with two dimensions of dexterity, namely, balanced and combined dimensions. However, studies do not explain the varied effects of behaviourally integrated TMTs on the different dimensions of ambidexterity. A clear understanding of this relationship will help firms choose the specific TMT processes needed to facilitate specific dimensions of ambidexterity. We address this research gap and test our research model with structural equation analyses on data collected from 78 SMEs. We observe that behavioural integration processes mostly enhance a firm's combined ambidexterity. Further, we find that combined ambidexterity completely mediates the relationship between behavioural integration and firm performance. Our study adds to the literature on ambidexterity, micro-foundations, and the theory of behavioural integration, and guides small firms in their choices of behavioural and innovation practices

Оценивание финансово-экономической безопасности предприятий молокоперерабатывающей отрасли

The essence of the concept “financial and economic security of the enterprise” is covered. Methodological approaches to the enterprise financial and economic security evaluation are considered, enabling the method of index numberrating score of the enterprise financial and economic security to be found. Dynamics of milk anddairy production in Ukraine has been studied. Ukrainian regions leading in liquid processed milk production have been identified. Dynamics of milk and dairy production per man has been analyzed which allowed to find out the annual increase in demand per man. Integrated index of the dairy enterprise financial and economic security has been evaluated. As a result, the ways to increase the managerial efficiency of financial and economic security of the following enterprises:PJSC "Dubnomoloko", PJSC "Kupyans'ki milk canning plant", PJSC the "Yagotyns'ki creamery", PJSC the "Pervomais'ki milk canning plant" are offered.У статті розкрито сутність поняття фінансово-економічної безпеки підприємства. Розглянуто методичні підходи щодо оцінювання фінансово-економічної безпеки підприємства, що дозволило виявити підхід рейтингової оцінки показника фінансово-економічної безпеки підприємства. Досліджено динаміку виробництва молока та молочних продуктів України. Виявити області України, які є лідерами з виробництва молока рідкого обробленого. Проаналізовано динаміку виробництва молока та молочних продуктів на одну особу, що дозволило встановити щорічне зростання попиту на одну особу. Визначено підприємства молокопереробної галузі. Проведено оцінку інтегрального показника фінансово-економічної безпеки підприємств молокопереробної галузі. За результатами оцінки запропоновано шляхи підвищення ефективності управління фінансово-економічної безпеки таких підприємств, як: ПАТ «Дубномолоко», ПАТ «Куп’янський молочноконсервний комбінат», ПАТ «Яготинський маслозавод», ПАТ «Первомайський молочноконсервний комбінат».В статье раскрыто сущность понятия финансово-экономическая безопасность предприятия. Рассмотрено методические подходы относительно оценивания финансово-экономической безопасности предприятия, что позволило выявить поход рейтинговой оценки показателя финансово-экономической безопасности предприятия. Исследовано динамику производства молока и молочных продуктов Украины. Выявлены области Украины, которые являются лидерами по производству молока жидкого обработанного. Проанализировано динамику производства молока и молочных продуктов на одного человека, что позволило установить ежегодный рост спроса на одного человека. Определены предприятия молокоперерабатывающей отрасли. Проведена оценка интегрального показателя финансово-экономической безопасности предприятий молокоперерабатывающей отрасли. По результатам оценки предложены пути повышения эффективности управления финансово-экономической безопасности таких предприятий, как: ПАО «Дубномолоко», ПАО «Купянский молочноконсервный комбинат», ПАО «Яготинский маслозавод», ПАО «Первомайский молочноконсервный комбинат»

On the effects of magnetic bonding in rare earth transition metal intermetallics

Neutron diffraction experiments on rare-earth transition metal magnetic alloys Er{sub 2}Fe{sub 14}B and Er{sub 2}Fe{sub 17} have been carried out at temperature above and below the ordering temperature ({Tc}). An anomalously large magnetic moment is observed at the crystallographic j{sub 2} site in Er{sub 2}Fe{sub 14}B which is the intersection point of the major ligand lines in the crystal structure. The interatomic Fe-Fe distances are in the range of strong ferromagnetic bonds ({ge} 2.66 {angstrom}). The analogous f site in Er{sub 2}Fe{sub 17} does not develop as large a magnetic moment. In addition, the same sites show strong preference for Fe atoms in the respective substituted compounds. Due to poor phase stability of Er{sub 2} (Co{sub x}Fe{sub 1 {minus}x}){sub 14}B compounds, iron substitution has been studied in detail in Er{sub 2}(Co{sub x}Fe{sub 1 {minus}x}){sub 17} alloys for site specific order an lattice distortion effects. However, a nonlinear change in the c lattice parameter observed in the neutron diffraction results cannot be explained on the basis of site preference alone. The neutron refinement results indicate iron rich compositions in Er{sub 2}(Co{sub x}Fe{sub 1 {minus}x}){sub 17} materials, which is related to random substitution of Fe dumbbell pairs in the rare earth sites in the lattice. However, extensive electron microscopy (selected area electron diffraction and high resolution imaging) of Er{sub 2}Fe{sub 17} and Er{sub 2}(Co{sub .40}Fe{sub .60}) {sub 17} failed to reveal any microscopic inhomogeneity. 12 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs