Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of diferent alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)-e.g. quantile mapping-to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration (RC) methods- e.g. non-homogeneous Gaussian regression, which build on the temporal correspondence between the climate model and the corresponding observations to generate reliable predictions. To be as critical as possible, we validate the raw model and the calibrated forecasts in terms of a number of metrics which take into account diferent aspects of forecast quality (association, accuracy, discrimination and reliability). We focus on one-month lead forecasts of precipitation and temperature from four state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems, three of them included in the Copernicus Climate Change Service dataset (ECMWF-SEAS5, UK Met Ofce-GloSea5 and Météo France-System5) for boreal winter and summer over two illustrative regions with diferent skill characteristics (Europe and Southeast Asia). Our results indicate that both BA and RC methods efectively correct the large raw model biases, which is of paramount importance for users, particularly when directly using the climate model outputs to run impact models, or when computing climate indices depending on absolute values/thresholds. However, except for particular regions and/or seasons (typically with high skill), there is only marginal added value-with respect to the raw model outputs-beyond this bias removal. For those cases, RC methods can outperform BA ones, mostly due to an improvement in reliability. Finally, we also show that whereas an increase in the number of members only modestly afects the results obtained from calibration, longer hindcast periods lead to improved forecast quality, particularly for RC methods.This work has been funded by the C3S activity on Evaluation and Quality Control for seasonal forecasts. JMG was partially supported by the project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R, MINECO/FEDER). FJDR was partially funded by the H2020 EUCP project (GA 776613)

HuR is exported to the cytoplasm in oral cancer cells in a different manner from that of normal cells

HuR, a ubiquitously expressed member of the Hu protein family that binds and stabilizes an AU-rich element (ARE)-containing mRNAs, is known to shuttle between the nucleus and the cytoplasm via several export pathways. When normal cells were treated with heat shock, HuR was exported to the cytoplasm in a chromosome maintenance region 1 (CRM1)-dependent manner. However, in this study, we demonstrate that HuR is exported to the cytoplasm in oral cancer cells even if the cells were treated with the inhibitor of the CRM1-independent export pathway. Immunohistochemical and biochemical analyses showed that HuR existed in both the cytoplasm and the nucleus in oral cancer cells, such as HSC-3 and Ca9.22, but existed entirely inside the nucleus in normal cells. AU-rich element-mRNAs were also exported to the cytoplasm and stabilised in the oral cancer cells, which were inhibited by HuR knockdown. This export of HuR was not affected by at least 7 h of treatment of leptomycin B (LMB), which is an inhibitor of the CRM1-dependent export pathway. These findings suggest that HuR is exported to the cytoplasm in oral carcinoma cells in a different manner from that of normal cells, and is likely to occur through the perturbation of a normal export pathway

FOXM1 binds directly to non-consensus sequences in the human genome.

BACKGROUND: The Forkhead (FKH) transcription factor FOXM1 is a key regulator of the cell cycle and is overexpressed in most types of cancer. FOXM1, similar to other FKH factors, binds to a canonical FKH motif in vitro. However, genome-wide mapping studies in different cell lines have shown a lack of enrichment of the FKH motif, suggesting an alternative mode of chromatin recruitment. We have investigated the role of direct versus indirect DNA binding in FOXM1 recruitment by performing ChIP-seq with wild-type and DNA binding deficient FOXM1. RESULTS: An in vitro fluorescence polarization assay identified point mutations in the DNA binding domain of FOXM1 that inhibit binding to a FKH consensus sequence. Cell lines expressing either wild-type or DNA binding deficient GFP-tagged FOXM1 were used for genome-wide mapping studies comparing the distribution of the DNA binding deficient protein to the wild-type. This shows that interaction of the FOXM1 DNA binding domain with target DNA is essential for recruitment. Moreover, analysis of the protein interactome of wild-type versus DNA binding deficient FOXM1 shows that the reduced recruitment is not due to inhibition of protein-protein interactions. CONCLUSIONS: A functional DNA binding domain is essential for FOXM1 chromatin recruitment. Even in FOXM1 mutants with almost complete loss of binding, the protein-protein interactions and pattern of phosphorylation are largely unaffected. These results strongly support a model whereby FOXM1 is specifically recruited to chromatin through co-factor interactions by binding directly to non-canonical DNA sequences.We would like to acknowledge the Genomics and bioinformatics core at the CRUK Research Institute for the Illumina sequencing and the Proteomics core for the LC/MS-MS protein analysis for the RIME experiments. We acknowledge the support from The University of Cambridge and Cancer Research UK. The Balasubramanian Laboratory is supported by core funding from Cancer Research UK (C14303/A17197). SB is a Wellcome Trust Principle Investigator.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BioMed Central via http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13059-015-0696-

Chronic Cigarette Smoke Causes Oxidative Damage and Apoptosis to Retinal Pigmented Epithelial Cells in Mice

The purpose of this study was to determine whether mice exposed to chronic cigarette smoke develop features of early age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Two month old C57Bl6 mice were exposed to either filtered air or cigarette smoke in a smoking chamber for 5 h/day, 5 days/week for 6 months. Eyes were fixed in 2.5% glutaraldehyde/2% paraformaldehyde and examined for ultrastructural changes by transmission electron microscopy. The contralateral eye was fixed in 2% paraformaldehyde and examined for oxidative injury to the retinal pigmented epithelium (RPE) by 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) immunolabeling and apoptosis by TUNEL labeling. Mice exposed to cigarette smoke had immunolabeling for 8-OHdG in 85±3.7% of RPE cells counted compared to 9.5±3.9% in controls (p<0.00001). Bruch membrane was thicker in mice exposed to smoke (1086±332 nm) than those raised in air (543±132 nm; p = 0.0069). The two most pronounced ultrastructural changes (severity grading scale from 0–3) seen were a loss of basal infoldings (mean difference in grade = 1.98; p<0.0001), and an increase in intracellular vacuoles (mean difference in grade = 1.7; p<0.0001). Ultrastructural changes to Bruch membrane in cigarette-smoke exposed mice were smaller in magnitude but consistently demonstrated significantly higher grade injury in cigarette-exposed mice, including basal laminar deposits (mean difference in grade = 0.54; p<0.0001), increased outer collagenous layer deposits (mean difference in grade = 0.59; p = 0.002), and increased basal laminar deposit continuity (mean difference in grade = 0.4; p<0.0001). TUNEL assay showed a higher percentage of apoptotic RPE from mice exposed to cigarette smoke (average 8.0±1.1%) than room air (average 0±0%; p = 0.043). Mice exposed to chronic cigarette smoke develop evidence of oxidative damage with ultrastructural degeneration to the RPE and Bruch membrane, and RPE cell apoptosis. This model could be useful for studying the mechanism of smoke induced changes during early AMD

Natural Allelic Variation Defines a Role for ATMYC1: Trichome Cell Fate Determination

The molecular nature of biological variation is not well understood. Indeed, many questions persist regarding the types of molecular changes and the classes of genes that underlie morphological variation within and among species. Here we have taken a candidate gene approach based on previous mapping results to identify the gene and ultimately a polymorphism that underlies a trichome density QTL in Arabidopsis thaliana. Our results show that natural allelic variation in the transcription factor ATMYC1 alters trichome density in A. thaliana; this is the first reported function for ATMYC1. Using site-directed mutagenesis and yeast two-hybrid experiments, we demonstrate that a single amino acid replacement in ATMYC1, discovered in four ecotypes, eliminates known protein–protein interactions in the trichome initiation pathway. Additionally, in a broad screen for molecular variation at ATMYC1, including 72 A. thaliana ecotypes, a high-frequency block of variation was detected that results in >10% amino acid replacement within one of the eight exons of the gene. This sequence variation harbors a strong signal of divergent selection but has no measurable effect on trichome density. Homologs of ATMYC1 are pleiotropic, however, so this block of variation may be the result of natural selection having acted on another trait, while maintaining the trichome density role of the gene. These results show that ATMYC1 is an important source of variation for epidermal traits in A. thaliana and indicate that the transcription factors that make up the TTG1 genetic pathway generally may be important sources of epidermal variation in plants

Restriction associated DNA-genotyping at multiple spatial scales in Arabidopsis lyrata reveals signatures of pathogen-mediated selection

Background: Genome scans based on outlier analyses have revolutionized detection of genes involved in adaptive processes, but reports of some forms of selection, such as balancing selection, are still limited. It is unclear whether high throughput genotyping approaches for identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms have sufficient power to detect modes of selection expected to result in reduced genetic differentiation among populations. In this study, we used Arabidopsis lyrata to investigate whether signatures of balancing selection can be detected based on genomic smoothing of Restriction Associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) data. We compared how different sampling approaches (both within and between subspecies) and different background levels of polymorphism (inbreeding or outcrossing populations) affected the ability to detect genomic regions showing key signatures of balancing selection, specifically elevated polymorphism, reduced differentiation and shifts towards intermediate allele frequencies. We then tested whether candidate genes associated with disease resistance (R-gene analogs) were detected more frequently in these regions compared to other regions of the genome. Results: We found that genomic regions showing elevated polymorphism contained a significantly higher density of R-gene analogs predicted to be under pathogen-mediated selection than regions of non-elevated polymorphism, and that many of these also showed evidence for an intermediate site-frequency spectrum based on Tajima’s D. However, we found few genomic regions that showed both elevated polymorphism and reduced FST among populations, despite strong background levels of genetic differentiation among populations. This suggests either insufficient power to detect the reduced population structure predicted for genes under balancing selection using sparsely distributed RAD markers, or that other forms of diversifying selection are more common for the R-gene analogs tested. Conclusions: Genome scans based on a small number of individuals sampled from a wide range of populations were sufficient to confirm the relative scarcity of signatures of balancing selection across the genome, but also identified new potential disease resistance candidates within genomic regions showing signatures of balancing selection that would be strong candidates for further sequencing efforts

Early infant HIV-1 diagnosis programs in resource-limited settings: opportunities for improved outcomes and more cost-effective interventions

Early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV-1 infection confers substantial benefits to HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected infants, to their families, and to programs providing prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services, but has been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings. In order to correctly inform parents/caregivers of infant infection status and link HIV-infected infants to care and treatment, a 'cascade' of events must successfully occur. A frequently cited barrier to expansion of EID programs is the cost of the required laboratory assays. However, substantial implementation barriers, as well as personnel and infrastructure requirements, exist at each step in the cascade. In this update, we review challenges to uptake at each step in the EID cascade, highlighting that even with the highest reported levels of uptake, nearly half of HIV-infected infants may not complete the cascade successfully. We next synthesize the available literature about the costs and cost effectiveness of EID programs; identify areas for future research; and place these findings within the context of the benefits and challenges to EID implementation in resource-limited settings

Promotoras as Mental Health Practitioners in Primary Care: A Multi-Method Study of an Intervention to Address Contextual Sources of Depression

We assessed the role of promotoras—briefly trained community health workers—in depression care at community health centers. The intervention focused on four contextual sources of depression in underserved, low-income communities: underemployment, inadequate housing, food insecurity, and violence. A multi-method design included quantitative and ethnographic techniques to study predictors of depression and the intervention’s impact. After a structured training program, primary care practitioners (PCPs) and promotoras collaboratively followed a clinical algorithm in which PCPs prescribed medications and/or arranged consultations by mental health professionals and promotoras addressed the contextual sources of depression. Based on an intake interview with 464 randomly recruited patients, 120 patients with depression were randomized to enhanced care plus the promotora contextual intervention, or to enhanced care alone. All four contextual problems emerged as strong predictors of depression (chi square, p < .05); logistic regression revealed housing and food insecurity as the most important predictors (odds ratios both 2.40, p < .05). Unexpected challenges arose in the intervention’s implementation, involving infrastructure at the health centers, boundaries of the promotoras’ roles, and “turf” issues with medical assistants. In the quantitative assessment, the intervention did not lead to statistically significant improvements in depression (odds ratio 4.33, confidence interval overlapping 1). Ethnographic research demonstrated a predominantly positive response to the intervention among stakeholders, including patients, promotoras, PCPs, non-professional staff workers, administrators, and community advisory board members. Due to continuing unmet mental health needs, we favor further assessment of innovative roles for community health workers