Anticipating the species jump: surveillance for emerging viral threats.

Zoonotic disease surveillance is typically triggered after animal pathogens have already infected humans. Are there ways to identify high-risk viruses before they emerge in humans? If so, then how and where can identifications be made and by what methods? These were the fundamental questions driving a workshop to examine the future of predictive surveillance for viruses that might jump from animals to infect humans. Virologists, ecologists and computational biologists from academia, federal government and non-governmental organizations discussed opportunities as well as obstacles to the prediction of species jumps using genetic and ecological data from viruses and their hosts, vectors and reservoirs. This workshop marked an important first step towards envisioning both scientific and organizational frameworks for this future capability. Canine parvoviruses as well as seasonal H3N2 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses are discussed as exemplars that suggest what to look for in anticipating species jumps. To answer the question of where to look, prospects for discovering emerging viruses among wildlife, bats, rodents, arthropod vectors and occupationally exposed humans are discussed. Finally, opportunities and obstacles are identified and accompanied by suggestions for how to look for species jumps. Taken together, these findings constitute the beginnings of a conceptual framework for achieving a virus surveillance capability that could predict future species jumps

Measuring Coverage in MNCH:A Validation Study Linking Population Survey Derived Coverage to Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Care Records in Rural China

Accurate data on coverage of key maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) interventions are crucial for monitoring progress toward the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. Coverage estimates are primarily obtained from routine population surveys through self-reporting, the validity of which is not well understood. We aimed to examine the validity of the coverage of selected MNCH interventions in Gongcheng County, China.We conducted a validation study by comparing women's self-reported coverage of MNCH interventions relating to antenatal and postnatal care, mode of delivery, and child vaccinations in a community survey with their paper- and electronic-based health care records, treating the health care records as the reference standard. Of 936 women recruited, 914 (97.6%) completed the survey. Results show that self-reported coverage of these interventions had moderate to high sensitivity (0.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50-0.63] to 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98-1.00]) and low to high specificity (0 to 0.83 [95% CI: 0.80-0.86]). Despite varying overall validity, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging between 0.49 [95% CI: 0.39-0.57] and 0.90 [95% CI: 0.88-0.92], bias in the coverage estimates at the population level was small to moderate, with the test to actual positive (TAP) ratio ranging between 0.8 and 1.5 for 24 of the 28 indicators examined. Our ability to accurately estimate validity was affected by several caveats associated with the reference standard. Caution should be exercised when generalizing the results to other settings.The overall validity of self-reported coverage was moderate across selected MNCH indicators. However, at the population level, self-reported coverage appears to have small to moderate degree of bias. Accuracy of the coverage was particularly high for indicators with high recorded coverage or low recorded coverage but high specificity. The study provides insights into the accuracy of self-reports based on a population survey in low- and middle-income countries. Similar studies applying an improved reference standard are warranted in the future

Interleukin-1 regulates multiple atherogenic mechanisms in response to fat feeding

Background: Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory process that develops in individuals with known risk factors that include hypertension and hyperlipidaemia, influenced by diet. However, the interplay between diet, inflammatory mechanisms and vascular risk factors requires further research. We hypothesised that interleukin-1 (IL-1) signaling in the vessel wall would raise arterial blood pressure and promote atheroma. Methodology/Principal Findings: Apoe(-/-) and Apoe(-/-)/IL-1R1(-/-) mice were fed high fat diets for 8 weeks, and their blood pressure and atherosclerosis development measured. Apoe(-/-)/IL-R1(-/-) mice had a reduced blood pressure and significantly less atheroma than Apoe(-/-) mice. Selective loss of IL-1 signaling in the vessel wall by bone marrow transplantation also reduced plaque burden (p<0.05). This was associated with an IL-1 mediated loss of endothelium-dependent relaxation and an increase in vessel wall Nox 4. Inhibition of IL-1 restored endothelium-dependent vasodilatation and reduced levels of arterial oxidative stress. Conclusions/Significance: The IL-1 cytokine system links atherogenic environmental stimuli with arterial inflammation, oxidative stress, increased blood pressure and atherosclerosis. This is the first demonstration that inhibition of a single cytokine can block the rise in blood pressure in response to an environmental stimulus. IL-1 inhibition may have profound beneficial effects on atherogenesis in man

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year(1,2). Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity(2-4). Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain ( El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods ( over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods ( under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Nino Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62876/1/nature03820.pd

Cotrimoxazole reduces systemic inflammation in HIV infection by altering the gut microbiome and immune activation

Wellcome TrustCanadian Institutes of Health ResearchMedical Research CouncilDepartment for International Development under MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and EDCTP2 programme supported by the European UnionMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UC

Brake response time before and after total knee arthroplasty: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although the numbers of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasing, there is only a small number of studies investigating driving safety after TKA. The parameter 'Brake Response Time (BRT)' is one of the most important criteria for driving safety and was therefore chosen for investigation.</p> <p>The present study was conducted to test the hypotheses that patients with right- or left-sided TKA show a significant increase in BRT from pre-operative (pre-op, 1 day before surgery) to post-operative (post-op, 2 weeks post surgery), and a significant decrease in BRT from post-op to the follow-up investigation (FU, 8 weeks post surgery). Additionally, it was hypothesized that the BRT of patients after TKA is significantly higher than that of healthy controls.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>31 of 70 consecutive patients (mean age 65.7 +/- 10.2 years) receiving TKA were tested for their BRT pre-op, post-op and at FU. BRT was assessed using a custom-made driving simulator. We used normative BRT data from 31 healthy controls for comparison.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were no significant increases between pre-op and post-op BRT values for patients who had undergone left- or right-sided TKA. Even the proportion of patients above a BRT threshold of 700 ms was not significantly increased postop. Controls had a BRT which was significantly better than the BRT of patients with right- or left-sided TKA at all three time points.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study showed a small and insignificant postoperative increase in the BRT of patients who had undergone right- or left-sided TKA. Therefore, we believe it is not justified to impair the patient's quality of social and occupational life post-surgery by imposing restrictions on driving motor vehicles beyond an interval of two weeks after surgery.</p

Modulations of the Chicken Cecal Microbiome and Metagenome in Response to Anticoccidial and Growth Promoter Treatment

With increasing pressures to reduce or eliminate the use of antimicrobials for growth promotion purposes in production animals, there is a growing need to better understand the effects elicited by these agents in order to identify alternative approaches that might be used to maintain animal health. Antibiotic usage at subtherapeutic levels is postulated to confer a number of modulations in the microbes within the gut that ultimately result in growth promotion and reduced occurrence of disease. This study examined the effects of the coccidiostat monensin and the growth promoters virginiamycin and tylosin on the broiler chicken cecal microbiome and metagenome. Using a longitudinal design, cecal contents of commercial chickens were extracted and examined using 16S rRNA and total DNA shotgun metagenomic pyrosequencing. A number of genus-level enrichments and depletions were observed in response to monensin alone, or monensin in combination with virginiamycin or tylosin. Of note, monensin effects included depletions of Roseburia, Lactobacillus and Enterococcus, and enrichments in Coprococcus and Anaerofilum. The most notable effect observed in the monensin/virginiamycin and monensin/tylosin treatments, but not in the monensin-alone treatments, was enrichments in Escherichia coli. Analysis of the metagenomic dataset identified enrichments in transport system genes, type I fimbrial genes, and type IV conjugative secretion system genes. No significant differences were observed with regard to antimicrobial resistance gene counts. Overall, this study provides a more comprehensive glimpse of the chicken cecum microbial community, the modulations of this community in response to growth promoters, and targets for future efforts to mimic these effects using alternative approaches

The influence of cardiovascular morbidity on the prognosis in prostate cancer. Experience from a 12-year nationwide Danish population-based cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine the impact of preexisting ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke on overall survival in prostate cancer patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a cohort study of patients with incident prostate cancer registered in the Danish Cancer Registry from 1997 through 2008. We identified patients diagnosed with IHD or stroke prior to the date of prostate cancer diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry. We constructed Kaplan-Meier curves to analyze time to death and Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) to compare mortality rates by preexisting IHD or stroke status, adjusting for age, stage, comorbidity, and calendar period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 30,721 prostate cancer patients, 4,276 (14%) had preexisting IHD and 1,331 (4%) preexisting stroke. Crude 1- and 5-year survival rates were 85% and 44% in men without preexisting IHD or stroke, 81% and 36% in men with preexisting IHD, and 78% and 27% in men with preexisting stroke. Adjusted HRs were 1.05 (95% CI 1.00-1.10) for patients with IHD and 1.20 (95% CI 1.12-1.30) for patients with stroke compared with patients without preexisting IHD or stroke.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Preexisting IHD had minimal impact on mortality in prostate cancer patients, whereas overall mortality was 20% higher in prostate cancer patients with preexisting stroke compared to those without IHD or stroke. These results highlight the importance of differentiating between various comorbidities.</p

Real-time algorithm for changes detection in depth of anesthesia signals

This paper presents a real-time algorithm for changes detection in depth of anesthesia signals. A Page-Hinkley test (PHT) with a forgetting mechanism (PHT-FM) was developed. The samples are weighted according to their "age" so that more importance is given to recent samples. This enables the detection of the changes with less time delay than if no forgetting factor was used. The performance of the PHT-FM was evaluated in a two-fold approach. First, the algorithm was run offline in depth of anesthesia (DoA) signals previously collected during general anesthesia, allowing the adjustment of the forgetting mechanism. Second, the PHT-FM was embedded in a real-time software and its performance was validated online in the surgery room. This was performed by asking the clinician to classify in real-time the changes as true positives, false positives or false negatives. The results show that 69 % of the changes were classified as true positives, 26 % as false positives, and 5 % as false negatives. The true positives were also synchronized with changes in the hypnotic or analgesic rates made by the clinician. The contribution of this work has a high impact in the clinical practice since the PHT-FM alerts the clinician for changes in the anesthetic state of the patient, allowing a more prompt action. The results encourage the inclusion of the proposed PHT-FM in a real-time decision support system for routine use in the clinical practice. © 2012 Springer-Verlag