Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches

ABSTRACT:Global mean sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal adaptation. Projections of shoreline retreat are highly uncertain, however, namely due to deeply uncertain mean sea level projections and the absence of consensus on a coastal impact model. An improved understanding and a better quantification of these sources of deep uncertainty are hence required to improve coastal risk management and inform adaptation decisions. In this work we present and apply a new extraprobabilistic framework to develop shoreline change projections of sandy coasts that allows consideration of intrinsic (or aleatory) and knowledge-based (or epistemic) uncertainties exhaustively and transparently. This framework builds upon an empirical shoreline change model to which we ascribe possibility functions to represent deeply uncertain variables. The model is applied to two local sites in Aquitaine (France) and Castellón (Spain). First, we validate the framework against historical shoreline observations and then develop shoreline change projections that account for possible (although unlikely) low-end and high-end mean sea level scenarios. Our high-end projections show for instance that shoreline retreats of up to 200m in Aquitaine and 130m in Castellón are plausible by 2100, while low-end projections revealed that 58 and 37m modest shoreline retreats, respectively, are also plausible. Such extended intervals of possible future shoreline changes reflect an ambiguity in the probabilistic description of shoreline change projections, which could be substantially reduced by better constraining sea level rise (SLR) projections and improving coastal impact models. We found for instance that if mean sea level by 2100 does not exceed 1m, the ambiguity can be reduced by more than 50%. This could be achieved through an ambitious climate mitigation policy and improved knowledge on ice sheets.This research has been supported by the BRGM, IHCantabria and the ERA4CS-ECLISEA project (grant no. 690462)

INTRUSION OF RECENT AIR IN POLAR STRATOSPHERE DURING SUMMER 2009 REVEALED BY BALLOON-BORNE IN SITU CO MEASUREMENTS

International audienceThe SPIRALE (Spectroscopie Infa-Rouge par Absorption de Lasers Embarqués) balloon-borne instrument has been launched twice within 17 days in the polar region (Kiruna, Sweden, 67.9°N-21.1°E) during summer, at the beginning and at the end of August 2009. In situ measurements of several trace gases have been performed including CO and O 3 between 10 and 34 km height, with very high vertical resolution (~5 m). The both flight results are compared and the CO stratospheric profile of the first flight presents specific structures associated with mid-latitude intrusion in the lowest stratospheric levels. Their interpretation is made with the help of results from several modeling tools (MIMOSA and FLEXTRA) and available satellite data (IASI). We also used the O 3 profile correlated with CO to calculate the proportion of recent air in the polar stratosphere. The results indicate the impact of East Asia urban pollution on the chemistry of polar stratosphere in summer

Chronic flooding events due to sea-level rise in French Guiana

As sea levels are rising, the number of chronic flooding events at high tide is increasing across the world coastlines. Yet, many events reported so far either lack observational evidence of flooding, or relate to coastal areas where ground subsidence or oceanic processes often enhance climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR). Here we present observational and modelling evidence of high-tide flooding events that are unlikely to occur without SLR in French Guiana, where sea-level rise rates are close to the global average and where there is no significant ground subsidence. In particular, on 16 October 2020, a well-documented flooding event happened in Cayenne under calm weather conditions. Our probabilistic assessment of daily maximum water levels superimposed on SLR shows that this event can be modelled and is a consequence of SLR. As sea levels will continue to rise, we show that the number, severity and extent of such high-tide flooding events will increase across several urban areas of French Guiana, with an evolution depending on the topography. As concerns are growing regarding the economic impacts and adaptation challenges of high-tide chronic events across the world, our study provides new evidence that this early impact of SLR is emerging now

Predictability of variable solar-terrestrial coupling

In October 2017, the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) Bureau established a committee for the design of SCOSTEP's Next Scientific Programme (NSP). The NSP committee members and authors of this paper decided from the very beginning of their deliberations that the predictability of the Sun-Earth System from a few hours to centuries is a timely scientific topic, combining the interests of different topical communities in a relevant way. Accordingly, the NSP was christened PRESTO -PREdictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial cOupling. This paper presents a detailed account of PRESTO; we show the key milestones of the PRESTO roadmap for the next 5 years, review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar-terrestrial physics.Fil: Daglis, Ioannis A.. Hellenic Space Center; Grecia. Universidad Nacional y Kapodistriaca de Atenas; GreciaFil: Chang, Loren C.. National Central University; ChinaFil: Dasso, Sergio Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: Gopalswamy, Nat. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Estados UnidosFil: Khabarova, Olga V.. Russian Academy Of Sciences; RusiaFil: Kilpua, Emilia. University of Helsinki; FinlandiaFil: Lopez, Ramon. University of Texas; Estados UnidosFil: Marsh, Daniel. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos. University of Leeds; Reino UnidoFil: Matthes, Katja. Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel; Alemania. Christian Albrechts Universitat Zu Kiel; AlemaniaFil: Nandy, Dibyendu. Indian Institute Of Science Education And Research Kolkata; IndiaFil: Seppälä, Annika. University of Otago; Nueva ZelandaFil: Shiokawa, Kazuo. Nagoya University; JapónFil: Thiéblemont, Rémi. Université Pierre et Marie Curie; FranciaFil: Zong, Qiugang. Peking University; Chin

Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies

Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain exposed to flooding and erosion enhanced by SLR. Here, we quantify the exposure of the coastal land heritage portfolio of the French Conservatoire du littoral (Cdl). We find that 30% (~40%) of the Cdl lands owned (projected to be owned) are located below the contemporary highest tide level. Nearly 10% additional surface exposure is projected by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 2150 for the moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The increase in exposure is largest along the West Mediterranean coast of France. We also find that Cdl land exposure increases more rapidly for SLR in the range of 0–1 m than for SLR in the range 2–4 m. Thus, near-future uncertainty on SLR has the largest impact on Cdl land exposure evolution and related land acquisition planning. Concerning erosion, we find that nearly 1% of Cdl land could be lost in 2100 if observed historical trends continue. Adding the SLR effect could lead to more than 3% land loss. Our study confirms previous findings that Cdl needs to consider land losses due to SLR in its land acquisition strategy and start acquiring land farther from the coast

Dynamique de la stratosphère au printemps et en été : étude des couplages tropiques/pôles

The stratosphere dynamics remains largely unexplored in summer and spring. In the context of the ozone layer recovery and the increasing of greenhouse gases emissions, efforts must be provided to improve our knowledge of the dynamical processes driving the stratosphere. Such improvements would lead to better future climate trends estimates. Recently, spring and summer satellites observations revealed occurrences of irreversible air masses transport from the tropics to the Arctic region. However, the associated mechanisms are poorly understood. The present work consists of dynamical and climatological analyses of these events in order to identify their causes and their occurrence frequency. In particular, we focused on the sporadic events, where the intrusion signal persists several months in the polar region, trapped within an anticyclonic anomaly before disappearing in summer. We used MLS/Aura and MIPAS/ENVISAT satellites data, the SPIRALE balloon borne data and the results of the advection model MIMOSA to identify, characterize and quantify these events. Stratospheric dynamical conditions are investigated using the reanalyses data of the ECMWF. Finally, a systematic algorithm to detect low-latitude intrusions has been developed and applied on MIMOSA results to perform a climatology between 1980 and 2011 The results suggest that the frequency of these events, driven by the planetary wave activity, is increasing since the 21st century. Furthermore, their occurrence in spring appears to depend on the stratospheric dynamical evolution during winter and on the tropical region dynamical regime.La dynamique de la stratosphère au printemps et en été reste à ce jour largement inexplorée. Or dans les contextes actuels du recouvrement de la couche d’ozone et de l’augmentation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, une amélioration de la compréhension des processus dynamiques contrôlant la stratosphère s’avère nécessaire, afin de mieux appréhender l’évolution du climat dans le futur. Des observations satellitaires récentes du printemps/été arctique ont montré l’existence de phénomènes de transport irréversibles depuis les régions tropicales vers la région arctique. Cependant, les mécanismes associés à ces évènements restent mal connus. Ce travail de thèse consiste en l’analyse dynamique et climatologique de ces phénomènes, afin d’évaluer les mécanismes responsables de leur développement et de leur fréquence d’apparition. Une attention particulière est donnée aux rares évènements, où la signature de l’intrusion persiste dans une anomalie anticyclonique jusqu’en été, soit plusieurs mois après son établissement en région polaire. Les données des instruments satellitaires MLS/Aura et MIPAS/ENVISAT, de l’instrument ballon SPIRALE, et le modèle d’advection MIMOSA ont permis d’identifier, caractériser et quantifier ces évènements. L’analyse des conditions dynamiques a été faite à partir des données météorologiques réanalysées de L’ECMWF. Enfin, le développement d’un algorithme de détection systématique de ces intrusions a permis d’en établir une climatologie entre les années 1980 et 2011. Parmi les résultats majeurs de cette étude, il apparaît que la fréquence de ces évènements, contrôlés par l’activité ondulatoire, a fortement augmenté depuis les années 2000. Nous montrons aussi que leur développement au printemps est fortement lié à l’évolution dynamique de la stratosphère durant l’hiver et au régime de circulation intertropicale

On the stratospheric dynamics in spring and summer : a tropics/poles coupling study

La dynamique de la stratosphère au printemps et en été reste à ce jour largement inexplorée. Or dans les contextes actuels du recouvrement de la couche d’ozone et de l’augmentation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, une amélioration de la compréhension des processus dynamiques contrôlant la stratosphère s’avère nécessaire, afin de mieux appréhender l’évolution du climat dans le futur. Des observations satellitaires récentes du printemps/été arctique ont montré l’existence de phénomènes de transport irréversibles depuis les régions tropicales vers la région arctique. Cependant, les mécanismes associés à ces évènements restent mal connus. Ce travail de thèse consiste en l’analyse dynamique et climatologique de ces phénomènes, afin d’évaluer les mécanismes responsables de leur développement et de leur fréquence d’apparition. Une attention particulière est donnée aux rares évènements, où la signature de l’intrusion persiste dans une anomalie anticyclonique jusqu’en été, soit plusieurs mois après son établissement en région polaire. Les données des instruments satellitaires MLS/Aura et MIPAS/ENVISAT, de l’instrument ballon SPIRALE, et le modèle d’advection MIMOSA ont permis d’identifier, caractériser et quantifier ces évènements. L’analyse des conditions dynamiques a été faite à partir des données météorologiques réanalysées de L’ECMWF. Enfin, le développement d’un algorithme de détection systématique de ces intrusions a permis d’en établir une climatologie entre les années 1980 et 2011. Parmi les résultats majeurs de cette étude, il apparaît que la fréquence de ces évènements, contrôlés par l’activité ondulatoire, a fortement augmenté depuis les années 2000. Nous montrons aussi que leur développement au printemps est fortement lié à l’évolution dynamique de la stratosphère durant l’hiver et au régime de circulation intertropicale.The stratosphere dynamics remains largely unexplored in summer and spring. In the context of the ozone layer recovery and the increasing of greenhouse gases emissions, efforts must be provided to improve our knowledge of the dynamical processes driving the stratosphere. Such improvements would lead to better future climate trends estimates. Recently, spring and summer satellites observations revealed occurrences of irreversible air masses transport from the tropics to the Arctic region. However, the associated mechanisms are poorly understood. The present work consists of dynamical and climatological analyses of these events in order to identify their causes and their occurrence frequency. In particular, we focused on the sporadic events, where the intrusion signal persists several months in the polar region, trapped within an anticyclonic anomaly before disappearing in summer. We used MLS/Aura and MIPAS/ENVISAT satellites data, the SPIRALE balloon borne data and the results of the advection model MIMOSA to identify, characterize and quantify these events. Stratospheric dynamical conditions are investigated using the reanalyses data of the ECMWF. Finally, a systematic algorithm to detect low-latitude intrusions has been developed and applied on MIMOSA results to perform a climatology between 1980 and 2011 The results suggest that the frequency of these events, driven by the planetary wave activity, is increasing since the 21st century. Furthermore, their occurrence in spring appears to depend on the stratospheric dynamical evolution during winter and on the tropical region dynamical regime

Likely and High-End Impacts of Regional Sea-Level Rise on the Shoreline Change of European Sandy Coasts Under a High Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario

Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major concern for coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion in the decades to come. Lately, the value of high-end sea-level scenarios (HESs) to inform stakeholders with low-uncertainty tolerance has been increasingly recognized. Here, we provide high-end projections of SLR-induced sandy shoreline retreats for Europe by the end of the 21st century based on the conservative Bruun rule. Our HESs rely on the upper bound of the RCP8.5 scenario “likely-range” and on high-end estimates of the different components of sea-level projections provided in recent literature. For both HESs, SLR is projected to be higher than 1 m by 2100 for most European coasts. For the strongest HES, the maximum coastal sea-level change of 1.9 m is projected in the North Sea and Mediterranean areas. This translates into a median pan-European coastline retreat of 140 m for the moderate HES and into more than 200 m for the strongest HES. The magnitude and regional distribution of SLR-induced shoreline change projections, however, utterly depend on the local nearshore slope characteristics and the regional distribution of sea-level changes. For some countries, especially in Northern Europe, the impacts of high-end sea-level scenarios are disproportionally high compared to those of likely scenarios

Solar influence on Earth's climate

International audienceUnderstanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth’s climate requires knowledgeof solar variability, solar-terrestrial interactions and observations, as well as mechanismsdetermining the response of the Earth’s climate system. A summary of our current understandingfrom observational and modeling studies is presented with special focus on the “top-down”stratospheric UV and the “bottom-up” air-sea coupling mechanisms linking solar forcing andnatural climate variability