Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

Polynomial Growth Harmonic Functions on Finitely Generated Abelian Groups

In the present paper, we develop geometric analytic techniques on Cayley graphs of finitely generated abelian groups to study the polynomial growth harmonic functions. We develop a geometric analytic proof of the classical Heilbronn theorem and the recent Nayar theorem on polynomial growth harmonic functions on lattices \mathds{Z}^n that does not use a representation formula for harmonic functions. We also calculate the precise dimension of the space of polynomial growth harmonic functions on finitely generated abelian groups. While the Cayley graph not only depends on the abelian group, but also on the choice of a generating set, we find that this dimension depends only on the group itself.Comment: 15 pages, to appear in Ann. Global Anal. Geo

Statistics of selectively neutral genetic variation

Random models of evolution are instrumental in extracting rates of microscopic evolutionary mechanisms from empirical observations on genetic variation in genome sequences. In this context it is necessary to know the statistical properties of empirical observables (such as the local homozygosity for instance). Previous work relies on numerical results or assumes Gaussian approximations for the corresponding distributions. In this paper we give an analytical derivation of the statistical properties of the local homozygosity and other empirical observables assuming selective neutrality. We find that such distributions can be very non-Gaussian.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Spin-Momentum Correlations in Quasi-Elastic Electron Scattering from Deuterium

We report on a measurement of spin-momentum correlations in quasi-elastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons with an energy of 720 MeV from vector-polarized deuterium. The spin correlation parameter $A^V_{ed}$ was measured for the $^2 \vec{\rm H}(\vec e,e^\prime p)n$ reaction for missing momenta up to 350 MeV/$c$ at a four-momentum transfer squared of 0.21 (GeV/c)$^2$. The data give detailed information about the spin structure of the deuteron, and are in good agreement with the predictions of microscopic calculations based on realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials and including various spin-dependent reaction mechanism effects. The experiment demonstrates in a most direct manner the effects of the D-state in the deuteron ground-state wave function and shows the importance of isobar configurations for this reaction.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. for publicatio

Anatomy of the Epidemiological Literature on the 2003 SARS Outbreaks in Hong Kong and Toronto: A Time-Stratified Review

Weijia Xing and colleagues reviewed the published epidemiological literature on SARS and show that less than a quarter of papers were published during the epidemic itself, suggesting that the research published lagged substantially behind the need for it

QTL linkage analysis of connected populations using ancestral marker and pedigree information

The common assumption in quantitative trait locus (QTL) linkage mapping studies that parents of multiple connected populations are unrelated is unrealistic for many plant breeding programs. We remove this assumption and propose a Bayesian approach that clusters the alleles of the parents of the current mapping populations from locus-specific identity by descent (IBD) matrices that capture ancestral marker and pedigree information. Moreover, we demonstrate how the parental IBD data can be incorporated into a QTL linkage analysis framework by using two approaches: a Threshold IBD model (TIBD) and a Latent Ancestral Allele Model (LAAM). The TIBD and LAAM models are empirically tested via numerical simulation based on the structure of a commercial maize breeding program. The simulations included a pilot dataset with closely linked QTL on a single linkage group and 100 replicated datasets with five linkage groups harboring four unlinked QTL. The simulation results show that including parental IBD data (similarly for TIBD and LAAM) significantly improves the power and particularly accuracy of QTL mapping, e.g., position, effect size and individuals’ genotype probability without significantly increasing computational demand

Search for heavy neutrinos mixing with tau neutrinos

We report on a search for heavy neutrinos (\nus) produced in the decay D_s\to \tau \nus at the SPS proton target followed by the decay \nudecay in the NOMAD detector. Both decays are expected to occur if \nus is a component of $\nu_{\tau}$.\ From the analysis of the data collected during the 1996-1998 runs with $4.1\times10^{19}$ protons on target, a single candidate event consistent with background expectations was found. This allows to derive an upper limit on the mixing strength between the heavy neutrino and the tau neutrino in the \nus mass range from 10 to 190 $\rm MeV$. Windows between the SN1987a and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis lower limits and our result are still open for future experimental searches. The results obtained are used to constrain an interpretation of the time anomaly observed in the KARMEN1 detector.\Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, a few comments adde

Reaction rates and transport in neutron stars

Understanding signals from neutron stars requires knowledge about the transport inside the star. We review the transport properties and the underlying reaction rates of dense hadronic and quark matter in the crust and the core of neutron stars and point out open problems and future directions.Comment: 74 pages; commissioned for the book "Physics and Astrophysics of Neutron Stars", NewCompStar COST Action MP1304; version 3: minor changes, references updated, overview graphic added in the introduction, improvements in Sec IV.A.