Stochastic and epistemic uncertainty propagation in LCA

Purpose: When performing uncertainty propagation, most LCA practitioners choose to represent uncertainties by single probability distributions and to propagate them using stochastic methods. However the selection of single probability distributions appears often arbitrary when faced with scarce information or expert judgement (epistemic uncertainty). Possibility theory has been developed over the last decades to address this problem. The objective of this study is to present a methodology that combines probability and possibility theories to represent stochastic and epistemic uncertainties in a consistent manner and apply it to LCA. A case study is used to show the uncertainty propagation performed with the proposed method and compare it to propagation performed using probability and possibility theories alone. Methods: Basic knowledge on the probability theory is first recalled, followed by a detailed description of hal-00811827, version 1- 11 Apr 2013 epistemic uncertainty representation using fuzzy intervals. The propagation methods used are the Monte Carlo analysis for probability distribution and an optimisation on alpha-cuts for fuzzy intervals. The proposed method (noted IRS) generalizes the process of random sampling to probability distributions as well as fuzzy intervals, thus making the simultaneous use of both representations possible

Effects of attention and perceptual uncertainty on cerebellar activity during visual motion perception

Recent clinical and neuroimaging studies have revealed that the human cerebellum plays a role in visual motion perception, but the nature of its contribution to this function is not understood. Some reports suggest that the cerebellum might facilitate motion perception by aiding attentive tracking of visual objects. Others have identified a particular role for the cerebellum in discriminating motion signals in perceptually uncertain conditions. Here, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine the degree to which cerebellar involvement in visual motion perception can be explained by a role in sustained attentive tracking of moving stimuli in contrast to a role in visual motion discrimination. While holding the visual displays constant, we manipulated attention by having participants attend covertly to a field of random-dot motion or a colored spot at fixation. Perceptual uncertainty was manipulated by varying the percentage of signal dots contained within the random-dot arrays. We found that attention to motion under high perceptual uncertainty was associated with strong activity in left cerebellar lobules VI and VII. By contrast, attending to motion under low perceptual uncertainty did not cause differential activation in the cerebellum. We found no evidence to support the suggestion that the cerebellum is involved in simple attentive tracking of salient moving objects. Instead, our results indicate that specific subregions of the cerebellum are involved in facilitating the detection and discrimination of task-relevant moving objects under conditions of high perceptual uncertainty. We conclude that the cerebellum aids motion perception under conditions of high perceptual demand

Understanding the Interplay Among Regulatory Self-Efficacy, Moral Disengagement, and Academic Cheating Behaviour During Vocational Education: A Three-Wave Study

The literature has suggested that to understand the diffusion of unethical conduct in the workplace, it is important to investigate the underlying processes sustaining engagement in misbehaviour and to study what occurs during vocational education. Drawing on social-cognitive theory, in this study, we longitudinally examined the role of two opposite dimensions of the self-regulatory moral system, regulatory self-efficacy and moral disengagement, in influencing academic cheating behaviour. In addition, in line with the theories highlighting the bidirectional relationship between cognitive processes and behaviour, we aimed to also examine the reciprocal influence of behaviour on these dimensions over time. Overall, no previous studies have examined the longitudinal interplay between these variables. The sample included 866 (62.8% female) nursing students who were assessed three times annually from the beginning of their vocational education. The findings from a cross-lagged model confirmed that regulatory self-efficacy and moral disengagement have opposite influences on cheating behaviour, that regulatory self-efficacy negatively influences not only the engagement in misconduct but also the justification mechanisms that allow the divorce between moral standards and action, and that moral disengagement and cheating behaviour reciprocally support each other over time. Specifically, not only did moral disengagement influence cheating behaviour even when controlling for its prior levels, but also cheating behaviour affected moral disengagement one year later, controlling for its prior levels. These findings suggest that recourse to wrongdoing could gradually lead to further normalising this kind of behaviour and morally desensitising individuals to misconduct

The Overlap of Small Molecule and Protein Binding Sites within Families of Protein Structures

Protein–protein interactions are challenging targets for modulation by small molecules. Here, we propose an approach that harnesses the increasing structural coverage of protein complexes to identify small molecules that may target protein interactions. Specifically, we identify ligand and protein binding sites that overlap upon alignment of homologous proteins. Of the 2,619 protein structure families observed to bind proteins, 1,028 also bind small molecules (250–1000 Da), and 197 exhibit a statistically significant (p<0.01) overlap between ligand and protein binding positions. These “bi-functional positions”, which bind both ligands and proteins, are particularly enriched in tyrosine and tryptophan residues, similar to “energetic hotspots” described previously, and are significantly less conserved than mono-functional and solvent exposed positions. Homology transfer identifies ligands whose binding sites overlap at least 20% of the protein interface for 35% of domain–domain and 45% of domain–peptide mediated interactions. The analysis recovered known small-molecule modulators of protein interactions as well as predicted new interaction targets based on the sequence similarity of ligand binding sites. We illustrate the predictive utility of the method by suggesting structural mechanisms for the effects of sanglifehrin A on HIV virion production, bepridil on the cellular entry of anthrax edema factor, and fusicoccin on vertebrate developmental pathways. The results, available at http://pibase.janelia.org, represent a comprehensive collection of structurally characterized modulators of protein interactions, and suggest that homologous structures are a useful resource for the rational design of interaction modulators

Natural course of behavioral addictions: A 5-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Resolving the theoretical controversy on the labeling of an increasing number of excessive behaviors as behavioral addictions may also be facilitated by more empirical data on these behavioral problems. For instance, an essential issue to the classification of psychiatric disorders is information on their natural course. However, longitudinal research on the chronic vs. episodic nature of behavioral addictions is scarce. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to provide data on prevalence, substance use comorbidity, and five-year trajectories of six excessive behaviors—namely exercising, sexual behavior, shopping, online chatting, video gaming, and eating. METHODS: Analyses were based on the data of the Quinte Longitudinal Study, where a cohort of 4,121 adults from Ontario, Canada was followed for 5 years (2006 to 2011). The response rate was 21.3%, while retention rate was 93.9%. To assess the occurrence of each problem behavior, a single self-diagnostic question asked people whether their over-involvement in the behavior had caused significant problems for them in the past 12 months. To assess the severity of each problem behavior reported, the Behavioral Addiction Measure was administered. A mixed design ANOVA was used to investigate symptom trajectories over time for each problem behavior and whether these symptom trajectories varied as a function of sex. RESULTS: The large majority of people reported having problematic over-involvement for just one of these behaviors and just in a single time period. A main effect of time was found for each problem behavior, indicating a moderately strong decrease in symptom severity across time. The time x sex interaction was insignificant in each model indicating that the decreasing trend is similar for males and females. The data also showed that help seeking was very low in the case of excessive sexual behavior, shopping, online chatting, and video gaming but substantially more prevalent in the case of excessive eating and exercising. CONCLUSIONS: The present results indicate that self-identified excessive exercising, sexual behavior, shopping, online chatting, video gaming, and/or eating tend to be fairly transient for most people. This aspect of the results is inconsistent with conceptualizations of addictions as progressive in nature, unless treated. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12888-015-0383-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Placental Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection: Operational accuracy of HRP2 rapid diagnostic tests in a malaria endemic setting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria has a negative effect on the outcome of pregnancy. Pregnant women are at high risk of severe malaria and severe haemolytic anaemia, which contribute 60-70% of foetal and perinatal losses. Peripheral blood smear microscopy under-estimates sequestered placental infections, therefore malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detecting histidine rich protein-2 antigen (HRP-2) in peripheral blood are a potential alternative.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HRP-2 RDTs accuracy in detecting malaria in pregnancy (MIP >28 weeks gestation) and placental <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria (after childbirth) were conducted using Giemsa microscopy and placental histopathology respectively as the reference standard. The study was conducted in Mbale Hospital, using the midwives to perform and interpret the RDT results. Discordant results samples were spot checked using PCR techniques.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 433 febrile women tested, RDTs had a sensitivity of 96.8% (95% CI 92-98.8), specificity of 73.5% (95% CI 67.8-78.6), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 68.0% (95% CI 61.4-73.9), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.5% (95% CI 94.0-99.0) in detecting peripheral <it>P. falciparum </it>malaria during pregnancy. At delivery, in non-symptomatic women, RDTs had a 80.9% sensitivity (95% CI 57.4-93.7) and a 87.5% specificity (95%CI 80.9-92.1), PPV of 47.2% (95% CI 30.7-64.2) and NPV of 97.1% (95% CI 92.2-99.1) in detecting placental <it>P. falciparum </it>infections among 173 samples. At delivery, 41% of peripheral infections were detected by microscopy without concurrent placental infection. The combination of RDTs and microscopy improved the sensitivity to 90.5% and the specificity to 98.4% for detecting placental malaria infection (McNemar's <it>X </it>²> 3.84). RDTs were not superior to microscopy in detecting placental infection (McNemar's <it>X </it>²< 3.84). Presence of malaria in pregnancy and active placental malaria infection were 38% and 12% respectively. Placental infections were associated with poor pregnancy outcome [pre-term, still birth and low birth weight] (aOR = 37.9) and late pregnancy malaria infection (aOR = 20.9). Mosquito net use (aOR 2.1) and increasing parity (aOR 2.7) were associated with lower risk for malaria in pregnancy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Use of HRP-2 RDTs to detect malaria in pregnancy in symptomatic women was accurate when performed by midwives. A combination of RDTs and microscopy provided the best means of detecting placental malaria. RDTs were not superior to microscopy in detecting placental infection. With a high sensitivity and specificity, RDTs could be a useful tool for assessing malaria in pregnancy, with further (cost-) effectiveness studies.</p

The Toll→NFκB Signaling Pathway Mediates the Neuropathological Effects of the Human Alzheimer's Aβ42 Polypeptide in Drosophila

Alzheimer's (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that afflicts a significant fraction of older individuals. Although a proteolytic product of the Amyloid precursor protein, the Αβ42 polypeptide, has been directly implicated in the disease, the genes and biological pathways that are deployed during the process of Αβ42 induced neurodegeneration are not well understood and remain controversial. To identify genes and pathways that mediated Αβ42 induced neurodegeneration we took advantage of a Drosophila model for AD disease in which ectopically expressed human Αβ42 polypeptide induces cell death and tissue degeneration in the compound eye. One of the genes identified in our genetic screen is Toll (Tl). It encodes the receptor for the highly conserved Tl→NFkB innate immunity/inflammatory pathway and is a fly homolog of the mammalian Interleukin-1 (Ilk-1) receptor. We found that Tl loss-of-function mutations dominantly suppress the neuropathological effects of the Αβ42 polypeptide while gain-of-function mutations that increase receptor activity dominantly enhance them. Furthermore, we present evidence demonstrating that Tl and key downstream components of the innate immunity/inflammatory pathway play a central role in mediating the neuropathological activities of Αβ42. We show that the deleterious effects of Αβ42 can be suppressed by genetic manipulations of the Tl→NFkB pathway that downregulate signal transduction. Conversely, manipulations that upregulate signal transduction exacerbate the deleterious effects of Aβ42. Since postmortem studies have shown that the Ilk-1→NFkB innate immunity pathway is substantially upregulated in the brains of AD patients, the demonstration that the Tl→NFkB signaling actively promotes the process of Αβ42 induced cell death and tissue degeneration in flies points to possible therapeutic targets and strategies

Targeting of PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway to inhibit T cell activation and prevent graft-versus-host disease development

Producción CientíficaBackground: Graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) remains the major obstacle to successful allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, despite of the immunosuppressive regimens administered to control T cell alloreactivity. PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway is crucial in T cell activation and function and, therefore, represents an attractive therapeutic target to prevent GvHD development. Recently, numerous PI3K inhibitors have been developed for cancer therapy. However, few studies have explored their immunosuppressive effect. Methods: The effects of a selective PI3K inhibitor (BKM120) and a dual PI3K/mTOR inhibitor (BEZ235) on human T cell proliferation, expression of activation-related molecules, and phosphorylation of PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway proteins were analyzed. Besides, the ability of BEZ235 to prevent GvHD development in mice was evaluated. Results: Simultaneous inhibition of PI3K and mTOR was efficient at lower concentrations than PI3K specific targeting. Importantly, BEZ235 prevented naïve T cell activation and induced tolerance of alloreactive T cells, while maintaining an adequate response against cytomegalovirus, more efficiently than BKM120. Finally, BEZ235 treatment significantly improved the survival and decreased the GvHD development in mice. Conclusions: These results support the use of PI3K inhibitors to control T cell responses and show the potential utility of the dual PI3K/mTOR inhibitor BEZ235 in GvHD prophylaxis.Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (Proyecto AIOA110296BLAN).Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (Proyecto GRS 726/A13

The neural substrate of positive bias in spontaneous emotional processing

Even in the presence of negative information, healthy human beings display an optimistic tendency when thinking of past success and future chances, giving a positive bias to everyday's cognition. The tendency to actively select positive thoughts suggests the existence of a mechanism to exclude negative content, raising the issue of its dependence on mechanisms like those of effortful control. Using perfusion imaging, we examined how brain activations differed according to whether participants were left to prefer positive thoughts spontaneously, or followed an explicit instruction to the same effect, finding a widespread dissociation of brain perfusion patterns. Under spontaneous processing of emotional material, recruitment of areas associated with effortful attention, such as the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was reduced relative to instructed avoidance of negative material (F(1,58) = 26.24, p = 0.047, corrected). Under spontaneous avoidance perfusion increments were observed in several areas that were deactivated by the task, including the perigenual medial prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, individual differences in executive capacity were not associated with positive bias. These findings suggest that spontaneous positive cognitive emotion regulation in health may result from processes that, while actively suppressing emotionally salient information, differ from those associated with effortful and directed control

The Transcription Factor Ultraspiracle Influences Honey Bee Social Behavior and Behavior-Related Gene Expression

Behavior is among the most dynamic animal phenotypes, modulated by a variety of internal and external stimuli. Behavioral differences are associated with large-scale changes in gene expression, but little is known about how these changes are regulated. Here we show how a transcription factor (TF), ultraspiracle (usp; the insect homolog of the Retinoid X Receptor), working in complex transcriptional networks, can regulate behavioral plasticity and associated changes in gene expression. We first show that RNAi knockdown of USP in honey bee abdominal fat bodies delayed the transition from working in the hive (primarily “nursing” brood) to foraging outside. We then demonstrate through transcriptomics experiments that USP induced many maturation-related transcriptional changes in the fat bodies by mediating transcriptional responses to juvenile hormone. These maturation-related transcriptional responses to USP occurred without changes in USP's genomic binding sites, as revealed by ChIP–chip. Instead, behaviorally related gene expression is likely determined by combinatorial interactions between USP and other TFs whose cis-regulatory motifs were enriched at USP's binding sites. Many modules of JH– and maturation-related genes were co-regulated in both the fat body and brain, predicting that usp and cofactors influence shared transcriptional networks in both of these maturation-related tissues. Our findings demonstrate how “single gene effects” on behavioral plasticity can involve complex transcriptional networks, in both brain and peripheral tissues