Influence of Air Quality Model Resolution on Uncertainty Associated With Health Impacts

http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Rpt208.pdfWe evaluate the uncertainty associated with regional air quality modeling grid resolution when calculating the health benefits of proposed air quality regulations. Using a regional photochemical model (CAMx), we ran two modeling episodes (a 2006 basecase and a 2018 attainment demonstration, both for Houston, Texas) at 36, 12, 4 and 2 km resolution. The basecase model performance was evaluated for each resolution for both monitor-based and population-weighted calculations of daily maximum 8-hour averaged ozone. Results from each resolution were more similar to each other than they are to actual measured values. However, the model performance improved when population weighted ozone concentration was used as the metric versus the standard daily maximum ozone concentrations at monitor site locations. Then population-weighted ozone concentrations were used to calculate the estimated health impacts of modeled ozone reduction from the basecase to the attainment demonstration including the 95% confidence intervals associated with each impact from concentrationresponse functions. We found that estimated avoided mortalities were not significantly different using coarse resolution, although 36 km resolution may over predict some potential health impacts. Given the cost/benefit analyses requirements of the Clean Air Act, the uncertainty associated with human health impacts and therefore the results reported in this study, we conclude that population weighted ozone concentrations obtained using regional photochemical models at 36 km resolution are meaningful relative to values obtained using fine (12 km or finer) resolution modeling. This result opens up the possibility for uncertainty analyses on 36 km resolution air quality modeling results, which are on average 10 times more computationally efficient. ContentsU.S. Environmental Protection Agency's STAR program through grant R83427

A Self-Consistent Method to Assess Air Quality Co-Benefits from US Climate Policies

Air quality co-benefits can potentially reduce the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation. However, while many studies of the cost of greenhouse gas mitigation model the full macroeconomic welfare impacts, most studies of air quality co-benefits do not. We employ a US computable general equilibrium economic model previously linked to an air quality modeling system, and enhance it to represent the economy-wide welfare impacts of fine particulate matter. We present a first application of this method to explore the efficiency and the distributional implications of a clean energy standard (CES) and a cap–and–trade (CAT) program that both reduce CO2 emission by 10% in 2030 relative to 2006. We find that co-benefits from fine particulate matter reduction completely offset policy costs by 110% (40% to 190%), transforming the net welfare impact of the CAT into a gain of $1 (-$5 to $7) billion 2005 US$. For the CES, the corresponding co-benefit (median $8;$3 to $14)/tCO2 is a smaller fraction (median 5%; 2% to 9%) of its higher policy cost. The eastern US garners 78% and 71% of co-benefits for the CES and CAT, respectively. By representing the effects of pollution-related morbidities and mortalities as an impact to labor and the demand for health services, we find that the welfare impact per unit of reduced pollution varies by region. These interregional differences can enhance the preference of some regions, like Texas, for a CAT over a CES, or switch the calculation of which policy yields higher co-benefits, compared to an approach that uses one valuation for all regions. This framework could be applied to quantify consistent air quality impacts of other pricing instruments, subnational trading programs, or green tax swaps.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants. Additionally, the authors acknowledge support from: the US EPA under the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program (#R834279); MIT's Leading Technology and Policy Initiative; US Department of Energy Office of Science grant DE-FG02-94ER61937; the MIT Energy Initiative Total Energy Fellowship (Saari); and a MIT Martin Family Society Fellowship (Saari)

Accounting for the foreground contribution to the dust emission towards Kepler's supernova remnant

‘The definitive version is available at www3.interscience.wiley.com '. Copyright Royal Astronomical Society. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2009.15061.xWhether or not supernovae contribute significantly to the overall dust budget is a controversial subject. Submillimetre (sub-mm) observations, sensitive to cold dust, have shown an excess at 450 and 850 μm in young remnants Cassiopeia A (Cas A) and Kepler. Some of the sub-mm emission from Cas A has been shown to be contaminated by unrelated material along the line of sight. In this paper, we explore the emission from material towards Kepler using sub-mm continuum imaging and spectroscopic observations of atomic and molecular gas, via H i, 12CO(J= 2–1) and 13CO(J= 2–1). We detect weak CO emission (peak T*A = 0.2–1 K, 1–2 km s−1 full width at half-maximum) from diffuse, optically thin gas at the locations of some of the sub-mm clumps. The contribution to the sub-mm emission from foreground molecular and atomic clouds is negligible. The revised dust mass for Kepler's remnant is 0.1–1.2 M⊙ , about half of the quoted values in the original study by Morgan et al., but still sufficient to explain the origin of dust at high redshifts.Peer reviewe

The thermal regime around buried submarine high voltage cables

The expansion of offshore renewable energy infrastructure and the need for trans-continental shelf power transmission require the use of submarine High Voltage (HV) cables. These cables have maximum operating surface temperatures of up to 70°C and are typically buried 1–2 m beneath the seabed, within the wide range of substrates found on the continental shelf. However, the heat flow pattern and potential effects on the sedimentary environments around such anomalously high heat sources in the near surface sediments are poorly understood. We present temperature measurements from a 2D laboratory experiment representing a buried submarine HV cable, and identify the thermal regimes generated within typical unconsolidated shelf sediments—coarse silt, fine sand and very coarse sand. We used a large (2 × 2.5 m) tank filled with water-saturated spherical glass beads (ballotini) and instrumented with a buried heat source and 120 thermocouples, to measure the time-dependent 2D temperature distributions. The observed and corresponding Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations of the steady state heat flow regimes, and normalised radial temperature distributions were assessed. Our results show that the heat transfer and thus temperature fields generated from submarine HV cables buried within a range of sediments are highly variable. Coarse silts are shown to be purely conductive, producing temperature increases of >10°C up to 40 cm from the source of 60°C above ambient; fine sands demonstrate a transition from conductive to convective heat transfer between c. 20°C and 36°C above ambient, with >10°C heat increases occurring over a metre from the source of 55°C above ambient; and very coarse sands exhibit dominantly convective heat transfer even at very low (c. 7°C) operating temperatures and reaching temperatures of up to 18°C above ambient at a metre from the source at surface temperatures of only 18°C. These findings are important for the surrounding near surface environments experiencing such high temperatures and may have significant implications for chemical and physical processes operating at the grain and sub-grain scale; biological activity at both micro-faunal and macro-faunal levels; and indeed the operational performance of the cables themselves, as convective heat transport would increase cable current ratings, something neglected in existing standards

A Quantum Bousso Bound

The Bousso bound requires that one quarter the area of a closed codimension two spacelike surface exceeds the entropy flux across a certain lightsheet terminating on the surface. The bound can be violated by quantum effects such as Hawking radiation. It is proposed that at the quantum level the bound be modified by adding to the area the quantum entanglement entropy across the surface. The validity of this quantum Bousso bound is proven in a two-dimensional large N dilaton gravity theory.Comment: 17 page

Solving Non-Stationary Bandit Problems by Random Sampling from Sibling Kalman Filters

The multi-armed bandit problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of multiple arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting in a random reward. The reward distributions are unknown, and thus, one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. Dynamically changing (non-stationary) bandit problems are particularly challenging because each change of the reward distributions may progressively degrade the performance of any fixed strategy. Although computationally intractable in many cases, Bayesian methods provide a standard for optimal decision making. This paper proposes a novel solution scheme for bandit problems with non-stationary normally distributed rewards. The scheme is inherently Bayesian in nature, yet avoids computational intractability by relying simply on updating the hyper parameters of sibling Kalman Filters, and on random sampling from these posteriors. Furthermore, it is able to track the better actions, thus supporting non-stationary bandit problems. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our scheme outperforms recently proposed bandit playing algorithms, not only in non-stationary environments, but in stationary environments also. Furthermore, our scheme is robust to inexact parameter settings. We thus believe that our methodology opens avenues for obtaining improved novel solutions

Distinctive diets of eutherian predators in Australia

Introduction of the domestic cat and red fox has devastated Australian native fauna. We synthesized Australian diet analyses to identify traits of prey species in cat, fox and dingo diets, which prey were more frequent or distinctive to the diet of each predator, and quantified dietary overlap. Nearly half (45%) of all Australian terrestrial mammal, bird and reptile species occurred in the diets of one or more predators. Cat and dingo diets overlapped least (0.64 ± 0.27, n = 24 location/time points) and cat diet changed little over 55 years of study. Cats were more likely to have eaten birds, reptiles and small mammals than foxes or dingoes. Dingo diet remained constant over 53 years and constituted the largest mammal, bird and reptile prey species, including more macropods/potoroids, wombats, monotremes and bandicoots/bilbies than cats or foxes. Fox diet had greater overlap with both cats (0.79 ± 0.20, n = 37) and dingoes (0.73 ± 0.21, n = 42), fewer distinctive items (plant material, possums/gliders) and significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity over 69 years, suggesting the opportunity for prey switching (especially of mammal prey) to mitigate competition. Our study reinforced concerns about mesopredator impacts upon scarce/threatened species and the need to control foxes and cats for fauna conservation. However, extensive dietary overlap and opportunism, as well as low incidence of mesopredators in dingo diets, precluded resolution of the debate about possible dingo suppression of foxes and cats

Manageable creativity

This article notes a perception in mainstream management theory and practice that creativity has shifted from being disruptive or destructive to 'manageable'. This concept of manageable creativity in business is reflected in a similar rhetoric in cultural policy, especially towards the creative industries. The article argues that the idea of 'manageable creativity' can be traced back to a 'heroic' and a 'structural' model of creativity. It is argued that the 'heroic' model of creativity is being subsumed within a 'structural' model which emphasises the systems and infrastructure around individual creativity rather than focusing on raw talent and pure content. Yet this structured approach carries problems of its own, in particular a tendency to overlook the unpredictability of creative processes, people and products. Ironically, it may be that some confusion in our policies towards creativity is inevitable, reflecting the paradoxes and transitions which characterise the creative process

Multi-stimulus linear negative expansion of a breathing M(O2CR)4-node MOF

The metal–organic framework (Me2NH2)2[Cd(NO2BDC)2] (SHF-81) comprises flattened tetrahedral Cd(O2CR)42− nodes, in which Cd(II) centres are linked via NO2BDC2− ligands (2-nitrobenzene-1,4-dicarboxylate) to give a doubly interpenetrated anionic network, with charge balanced by two Me2NH2+ cations per Cd centre resident in the pores. The study establishes that this is a twinned α-quartz-type structure (trigonal, space group P3x21, x = 1 or 2), although very close to the higher symmetry β-quartz arrangement (hexagonal, P6x22, x = 2 or 4) in its as-synthesised solvated form [Cd(NO2BDC)2]·2DMF·0.5H2O (SHF-81-DMF). The activated MOF exhibits very little N2 uptake at 77 K, but shows significant CO2 uptake at 273–298 K with an isosteric enthalpy of adsorption (ΔHads) at zero coverage of −27.4 kJ mol−1 determined for the MOF directly activated from SHF-81-DMF. A series of in situ diffraction experiments, both single-crystal X-ray diffraction (SCXRD) and powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), reveal that the MOF is flexible and exhibits breathing behaviour with observed changes as large as 12% in the a- and b-axes (|Δa|, |Δb| 0; Δc 0). The largest change in dimensions is observed during activation/desolvation from SHF-81-DMF to SHF-81 (Δa, Δb 0; ΔV < 0). Collectively the nine in situ diffraction experiments conducted suggest the breathing behaviour is continuous, although individual desolvation and adsorption experiments do not rule out the possibility of a gating or step at intermediate geometries that is coupled with continuous dynamic behaviour towards the extremities of the breathing amplitude