RCP8.5-projected changes in German Bight storm surge characteristics from regionalized ensemble simulations for the end of the twenty-first century

This study investigates climate-induced changes in height, frequency and duration of storm surges in the German Bight. The regionally coupled climate model system MPIOM-REMO with a focus on the North Sea has been utilized to dynamically downscale 30 members of the global climate model system MPI-ESM1.1-LR for the historical period 1950–2005 and a continuation until 2099 with the RCP8.5 scenario. Results of all members have been collected into the historical (1970–1999) and the rcp85 (2070–2099) data pools amounting to 900 years of the corresponding climate state. The global mean sea level rise was not considered. Nevertheless, the mean ensemble German Bight SSH trend amounts to about 13 ± 1 cm/century (PI control: 3 cm/century) due to adaptation of the ocean circulation to the changing climatic conditions. Storm surges were defined as SSH above mean high tidal water plus 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 m for “regular”, heavy, extreme storm surges, and then clustered to events. Our simulated storm surge events show a clear location-dependent increase in frequency (6–11), median duration (4–24), and average duration (9–20) in the German Bight. Only along the central German Bight coast (Cuxhaven), longer lasting events gain more relevance. Heavy storm surge events show also a strong increase in frequency (7–34) and average duration (10–22). Maximum sea levels during storm events increase strongest and most significant along the northern German Bight and Danish coasts with more than 30 cm/century for the 60-year return period at Hörnum and 10–15 cm/century for shorter return periods. Levels of return periods shorter than a few years significantly increase everywhere along the southern German Bight coasts (around 5 cm/century for the 2-year return period). Highest SSH maxima do not change, and consequently, extreme storm surge events show hardly any response to climate change. Furthermore, our results indicate a shift of seasonality from the last to the first quarter of a year. As the main driver for the encountered alteration of German Bight storm surge characteristics, we identified a change in wind conditions with a pronounced increase of frequency of strong westerly winds

Structure and multiple conformations of the Kunitz-type domain from human type VI collagen alpha3(VI) chain in solution.

BACKGROUND: The Kunitz-type inhibitor motif is found at the C terminus of the human collagen alpha3(VI) chain. This 76-residue module (domain C5) was prepared in recombinant form and showed high stability against proteases; however, it lacked any inhibitory activity against trypsin, thrombin, kallikrein and several other proteases. We have undertaken the determination of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of domain C5 in solution, by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), in order to establish the structural basis for the properties of this protein. RESULTS: The 7 N-terminal and 12 C-terminal residues of domain C5 are disordered in the solution structure. The 55-residue core, which shows high homology to bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor, retains the characteristic fold of all members of the Kunitz-type inhibitor family. 24 residues of this main structural body show more than one resonance, symptomatic of multiple conformations slowly exchanging on the NMR time scale. In addition, significant proton chemical exchange line broadening is observed for residues in the vicinity of the disulfide bridge between residues 20 and 44: this indicates interconversion, on the micro- to millisecond time scale, between multiple conformations. CONCLUSION: The NMR study demonstrates that domain C5 is a highly dynamic molecule at temperatures studied (between 10 and 30 degrees C). Indeed, some 44% of the main body structure of C5 showed multiple conformations. The existence of multiple conformations was not necessarily expected in view of the conformational constraints imposed by the 3D structure of proteins as rigid as C5; it should therefore be considered in the interpretation of its structural and dynamical properties. The accessibility of the inhibitory binding loop (Gly18 [P4] to Leu25 [P4']) should be relatively unaffected by this conformational exchange and thus would not explain the unusual specificity of C5. Most serine proteinase inhibitors that, like C5, have an arginine at the P1 position inhibit trypsin; the lack of trypsin inhibition of C5 must therefore arise from the amino-acid side-chain composition of the adjoining positions in the binding loop

Conversion of the Kunitz-type module of collagen VI into a highly active trypsin inhibitor by site-directed mutagenesis.

The recombinant Kunitz protease inhibitor module (domain C5) of human collagen α3(VI) chain was previously shown to lack inhibitory activity for proteases with trypsin-like specificity and some other proteases. We have now prepared mutants in the binding loop region including the P1′ site (D2889 → A), the P2′ site (F2890 → R) and the P3 site (T2886 → P) and in a more remote region (W2907 → V) either as individual substitutions or combinations of them. These mutants were analyzed for their kinetics of binding to trypsin by surface plasmon resonance and for their capacity to inhibit various proteases. Single substitutions (D → A, T → P, W → V) showed an effect only for D → A which bound to trypsin with Kd= 0.25 μM. A 25–100-fold increase in affinity was observed for the double mutants T → P/D → A and F → R/D → A and approached the affinity of aprotinin (Kd≈0.01 nM) in two different triple mutants. These affinities correlated well with the inhibitory capacities of the mutants for trypsin in the cleavage of a large protein and a small peptide substrate. A similar but not completely identical improvement in inhibitory capacity was also observed for leucocyte elastase but not for thrombin. These data could be interpreted in terms of steric interferences or lack of hydrogen bonding of a few critical residues based on three-dimensional structures available for the C5 domain

Resonance contributions to HBT correlation radii

We study the effect of resonance decays on intensity interferometry for heavy ion collisions. Collective expansion of the source leads to a dependence of the two-particle correlation function on the pair momentum K. This opens the possibility to reconstruct the dynamics of the source from the K-dependence of the measured HBT radii. Here we address the question to what extent resonance decays can fake such a flow signal. Within a simple parametrization for the emission function we present a comprehensive analysis of the interplay of flow and resonance decays on the one- and two-particle spectra. We discuss in detail the non-Gaussian features of the correlation function introduced by long-lived resonances and the resulting problems in extracting meaningful HBT radii. We propose to define them in terms of the second order q-moments of the correlator C(q, K). We show that this yields a more reliable characterisation of the correlator in terms of its width and the correlation strength `lambda' than other commonly used fit procedures. The normalized fourth-order q-moments (kurtosis) provide a quantitative measure for the non-Gaussian features of the correlator. At least for the class of models studied here, the kurtosis helps separating effects from expansion flow and resonance decays, and provides the cleanest signal to distinguish between scenarios with and without transverse flow.Comment: 23 pages, twocolumn RevTeX, 12 eps-figures included, minor changes following referee comment

Driving factors of a vegetation shift from Scots pine to pubescent oak in dry Alpine forests

An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner-Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub-boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub-Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger-scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed-effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small-diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services

Status and Plans for the Array Control and Data Acquisition System of the Cherenkov Telescope Array

The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is the next-generation atmospheric Cherenkov gamma-ray observatory. CTA will consist of two installations, one in the northern, and the other in the southern hemisphere, containing tens of telescopes of different sizes. The CTA performance requirements and the inherent complexity associated with the operation, control and monitoring of such a large distributed multi-telescope array leads to new challenges in the field of the gamma-ray astronomy. The ACTL (array control and data acquisition) system will consist of the hardware and software that is necessary to control and monitor the CTA arrays, as well as to time-stamp, read-out, filter and store -at aggregated rates of few GB/s- the scientific data. The ACTL system must be flexible enough to permit the simultaneous automatic operation of multiple sub-arrays of telescopes with a minimum personnel effort on site. One of the challenges of the system is to provide a reliable integration of the control of a large and heterogeneous set of devices. Moreover, the system is required to be ready to adapt the observation schedule, on timescales of a few tens of seconds, to account for changing environmental conditions or to prioritize incoming scientific alerts from time-critical transient phenomena such as gamma ray bursts. This contribution provides a summary of the main design choices and plans for building the ACTL system.Comment: In Proceedings of the 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC2015), The Hague, The Netherlands. All CTA contributions at arXiv:1508.0589

Does rumination mediate the relationship between emotion regulation ability and posttraumatic stress disorder?

Background and objectives: Trauma-related rumination has been suggested to be involved in the maintenance of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This view has empirically been supported by extensive evidence using cross-sectional, prospective, and experimental designs. However, it is unclear why trauma survivors engage in rumination despite its negative consequences. The current study aimed to explore the hypothesis that low emotion regulation ability underlies trauma-related rumination. Methods: Emotion regulation ability and trauma-related rumination were assessed in 93 road traffic accident survivors 2 weeks post-trauma. In addition, symptom levels of PTSD were assessed at 2 weeks as well as 1, 3, and 6 months follow-up. Results: Emotion regulation ability was significantly related to trauma-related rumination as well as levels of PTSD symptoms. In addition, the association between low emotion regulation ability and PTSD was mediated by rumination. Conclusions: The findings support the view that rumination is used as a dysfunctional emotion regulation strategy by trauma survivors

Effects of S-wave thresholds

The opening of a new S-wave threshold is frequently accompanied by an abrupt dip in the magnitude of an amplitude for an already-open channel. One familiar example is the behavior of the I=0 S-wave $\pi \pi$ scattering amplitude at $K \bar K$ threshold. Numerous other examples of this phenomenon in recent data are noted, and a unified description of the underlying dynamics is sought.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures. Two additional references; typographic correction. To be published in Phys. Rev.