Estimating Temporal Trend in the Presence of Spatial Complexity: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for a Wetland Plant Population Undergoing Restoration

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations (“zones”) with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity—a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach

Ocean acidification and temperature rise: effects on calcification during early development of the cuttlefish Sepia officinalis

This study investigated the effects of seawater pH (i.e., 8.10, 7.85 and 7.60) and temperature (16 and 19 °C) on (a) the abiotic conditions in the fluid surrounding the embryo (viz. the perivitelline fluid), (b) growth, development and (c) cuttlebone calcification of embryonic and juvenile stages of the cephalopod Sepia officinalis. Egg swelling increased in response to acidification or warming, leading to an increase in egg surface while the interactive effects suggested a limited plasticity of the swelling modulation. Embryos experienced elevated pCO2 conditions in the perivitelline fluid (>3-fold higher pCO2 than that of ambient seawater), rendering the medium under-saturated even under ambient conditions. The growth of both embryos and juveniles was unaffected by pH, whereas 45Ca incorporation in cuttlebone increased significantly with decreasing pH at both temperatures. This phenomenon of hypercalcification is limited to only a number of animals but does not guarantee functional performance and calls for better mechanistic understanding of calcification processes

The first global deep-sea stable isotope assessment reveals the unique trophic ecology of Vampire Squid Vampyroteuthis infernalis (Cephalopoda)

Vampyroteuthis infernalis Chun, 1903, is a widely distributed deepwater cephalopod with unique morphology and phylogenetic position. We assessed its habitat and trophic ecology on a global scale via stable isotope analyses of a unique collection of beaks from 104 specimens from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Cephalopods typically are active predators occupying a high trophic level (TL) and exhibit an ontogenetic increase in δ15N and TL. Our results, presenting the first global comparison for a deep-sea invertebrate, demonstrate that V. infernalis has an ontogenetic decrease in δ15N and TL, coupled with niche broadening. Juveniles are mobile zooplanktivores, while larger Vampyroteuthis are slow-swimming opportunistic consumers and ingest particulate organic matter. Vampyroteuthis infernalis occupies the same TL (3.0–4.3) over its global range and has a unique niche in deep-sea ecosystems. These traits have enabled the success and abundance of this relict species inhabiting the largest ecological realm on the planet.Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The attached file is the published pdf

Contrasting Responses to Harvesting and Environmental Drivers of Fast and Slow Life History Species

According to their main life history traits, organisms can be arranged in a continuum from fast (species with small body size, short lifespan and high fecundity) to slow (species with opposite characteristics). Life history determines the responses of organisms to natural and anthropogenic factors, as slow species are expected to be more sensitive than fast species to perturbations. Owing to their contrasting traits, cephalopods and elasmobranchs are typical examples of fast and slow strategies, respectively. We investigated the responses of these two contrasting strategies to fishing exploitation and environmental conditions (temperature, productivity and depth) using generalized additive models. Our results confirmed the foreseen contrasting responses of cephalopods and elasmobranchs to natural (environment) and anthropogenic (harvesting) influences. Even though a priori foreseen, we did expect neither the clear-cut differential responses between groups nor the homogeneous sensitivity to the same factors within the two taxonomic groups. Apart from depth, which affected both groups equally, cephalopods and elasmobranchs were exclusively affected by environmental conditions and fishing exploitation, respectively. Owing to its short, annual cycle, cephalopods do not have overlapping generations and consequently lack the buffering effects conferred by different age classes observed in multi-aged species such as elasmobranchs. We suggest that cephalopods are sensitive to short-term perturbations, such as seasonal environmental changes, because they lack this buffering effect but they are in turn not influenced by continuous, long-term moderate disturbances such as fishing because of its high population growth and turnover. The contrary would apply to elasmobranchs, whose multi-aged population structure would buffer the seasonal environmental effects, but they would display strong responses to uninterrupted harvesting due to its low population resilience. Besides providing empirical evidence to the theoretically predicted contrasting responses of cephalopods and elasmobranchs to disturbances, our results are useful for the sustainable exploitation of these resourcesVersión del editor4,411

The effects of spatially heterogeneous prey distributions on detection patterns in foraging seabirds

Many attempts to relate animal foraging patterns to landscape heterogeneity are focused on the analysis of foragers movements. Resource detection patterns in space and time are not commonly studied, yet they are tightly coupled to landscape properties and add relevant information on foraging behavior. By exploring simple foraging models in unpredictable environments we show that the distribution of intervals between detected prey (detection statistics)is mostly determined by the spatial structure of the prey field and essentially distinct from predator displacement statistics. Detections are expected to be Poissonian in uniform random environments for markedly different foraging movements (e.g. L\'evy and ballistic). This prediction is supported by data on the time intervals between diving events on short-range foraging seabirds such as the thick-billed murre ({\it Uria lomvia}). However, Poissonian detection statistics is not observed in long-range seabirds such as the wandering albatross ({\it Diomedea exulans}) due to the fractal nature of the prey field, covering a wide range of spatial scales. For this scenario, models of fractal prey fields induce non-Poissonian patterns of detection in good agreement with two albatross data sets. We find that the specific shape of the distribution of time intervals between prey detection is mainly driven by meso and submeso-scale landscape structures and depends little on the forager strategy or behavioral responses.Comment: Submitted first to PLoS-ONE on 26/9/2011. Final version published on 14/04/201

Effects of Hydrographic Variability on the Spatial, Seasonal and Diel Diving Patterns of Southern Elephant Seals in the Eastern Weddell Sea

Weddell Sea hydrography and circulation is driven by influx of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) at its eastern margin. Entrainment and upwelling of this high-nutrient, oxygen-depleted water mass within the Weddell Gyre also supports the mesopelagic ecosystem within the gyre and the rich benthic community along the Antarctic shelf. We used Conductivity-Temperature-Depth Satellite Relay Data Loggers (CTD-SRDLs) to examine the importance of hydrographic variability, ice cover and season on the movements and diving behavior of southern elephant seals in the eastern Weddell Sea region during their overwinter feeding trips from Bouvetøya. We developed a model describing diving depth as a function of local time of day to account for diel variation in diving behavior. Seals feeding in pelagic ice-free waters during the summer months displayed clear diel variation, with daytime dives reaching 500-1500 m and night-time targeting of the subsurface temperature and salinity maxima characteristic of CDW around 150–300 meters. This pattern was especially clear in the Weddell Cold and Warm Regimes within the gyre, occurred in the ACC, but was absent at the Dronning Maud Land shelf region where seals fed benthically. Diel variation was almost absent in pelagic feeding areas covered by winter sea ice, where seals targeted deep layers around 500–700 meters. Thus, elephant seals appear to switch between feeding strategies when moving between oceanic regimes or in response to seasonal environmental conditions. While they are on the shelf, they exploit the locally-rich benthic ecosystem, while diel patterns in pelagic waters in summer are probably a response to strong vertical migration patterns within the copepod-based pelagic food web. Behavioral flexibility that permits such switching between different feeding strategies may have important consequences regarding the potential for southern elephant seals to adapt to variability or systematic changes in their environment resulting from climate change