FIRE PROTECTION ALTERNATIVES FOR RURAL AREAS

Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Interest Rates and Information Geometry

The space of probability distributions on a given sample space possesses natural geometric properties. For example, in the case of a smooth parametric family of probability distributions on the real line, the parameter space has a Riemannian structure induced by the embedding of the family into the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions, and is characterised by the Fisher-Rao metric. In the nonparametric case the relevant geometry is determined by the spherical distance function of Bhattacharyya. In the context of term structure modelling, we show that minus the derivative of the discount function with respect to the maturity date gives rise to a probability density. This follows as a consequence of the positivity of interest rates. Therefore, by mapping the density functions associated with a given family of term structures to Hilbert space, the resulting metrical geometry can be used to analyse the relationship of yield curves to one another. We show that the general arbitrage-free yield curve dynamics can be represented as a process taking values in the convex space of smooth density functions on the positive real line. It follows that the theory of interest rate dynamics can be represented by a class of processes in Hilbert space. We also derive the dynamics for the central moments associated with the distribution determined by the yield curve.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figure

Power Utility Maximization in Discrete-Time and Continuous-Time Exponential Levy Models

Consider power utility maximization of terminal wealth in a 1-dimensional continuous-time exponential Levy model with finite time horizon. We discretize the model by restricting portfolio adjustments to an equidistant discrete time grid. Under minimal assumptions we prove convergence of the optimal discrete-time strategies to the continuous-time counterpart. In addition, we provide and compare qualitative properties of the discrete-time and continuous-time optimizers.Comment: 18 pages, to appear in Mathematical Methods of Operations Research. The final publication is available at springerlink.co

A dynamic and multifunctional account of middle‐range theories

This article develops a novel account of middle‐range theories for combining theoretical and empirical analysis in explanatory sociology. I first revisit Robert K. Merton’s original ideas on middle‐range theories and identify a tension between his developmental approach to middle‐range theorizing that recognizes multiple functions of theories in sociological research and his static definition of the concept of middle‐range theory that focuses only on empirical testing of theories. Drawing on Merton's ideas on theorizing and recent discussions on mechanism‐based explanations, I argue that this tension can be resolved by decomposing a middle‐range theory into three interrelated and evolving components that perform different functions in sociological research: (i) a conceptual framework about social phenomena that is a set of interrelated concepts that evolve in close connection with empirical analysis; (ii) a mechanism schema that is an abstract and incomplete description of a social mechanism; and (iii) a cluster of all mechanism‐based explanations of social phenomena that are based on the particular mechanism schema. I show how these components develop over time and how they serve different functions in sociological theorizing and research. Finally, I illustrate these ideas by discussing Merton’s theory of the Matthew effect in science and its more recent applications in sociology.This article develops a novel account of middle‐range theories for combining theoretical and empirical analysis in explanatory sociology. I first revisit Robert K. Merton’s original ideas on middle‐range theories and identify a tension between his developmental approach to middle‐range theorizing that recognizes multiple functions of theories in sociological research and his static definition of the concept of middle‐range theory that focuses only on empirical testing of theories. Drawing on Merton's ideas on theorizing and recent discussions on mechanism‐based explanations, I argue that this tension can be resolved by decomposing a middle‐range theory into three interrelated and evolving components that perform different functions in sociological research: (i) a conceptual framework about social phenomena that is a set of interrelated concepts that evolve in close connection with empirical analysis; (ii) a mechanism schema that is an abstract and incomplete description of a social mechanism; and (iii) a cluster of all mechanism‐based explanations of social phenomena that are based on the particular mechanism schema. I show how these components develop over time and how they serve different functions in sociological theorizing and research. Finally, I illustrate these ideas by discussing Merton’s theory of the Matthew effect in science and its more recent applications in sociology.Peer reviewe

Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments

We contrast Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), the theoretical basis for the development of financial instruments, with a dynamical picture of an interacting market, in a simple setting. The proliferation of financial instruments apparently provides more means for risk diversification, making the market more efficient and complete. In the simple market of interacting traders discussed here, the proliferation of financial instruments erodes systemic stability and it drives the market to a critical state characterized by large susceptibility, strong fluctuations and enhanced correlations among risks. This suggests that the hypothesis of APT may not be compatible with a stable market dynamics. In this perspective, market stability acquires the properties of a common good, which suggests that appropriate measures should be introduced in derivative markets, to preserve stability.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figure

In vitro production of bovine embryos derived from individual donors in the Corral® dish

Background: Since the identity of the embryo is of outmost importance during commercial in vitro embryo production, bovine oocytes and embryos have to be cultured strictly per donor. Due to the rather low yield of oocytes collected after ovum pick-up (OPU) per individual cow, oocyte maturation and embryo culture take place in small groups, which is often associated with inferior embryo development. The objective of this study was to improve embryonic development in small donor groups by using the Corral (R) dish. This commercial dish is designed for human embryo production. It contains two central wells that are divided into quadrants by a semi-permeable wall. In human embryo culture, one embryo is placed per quadrant, allowing individual follow-up while embryos are exposed to a common medium. In our study, small groups of oocytes and subsequently embryos of different bovine donors were placed in the Corral (R) dish, each donor group in a separate quadrant. Results: In two experiments, the Corral (R) dish was evaluated during in vitro maturation (IVM) and/or in vitro culture (IVC) by grouping oocytes and embryos of individual bovine donors per quadrant. At day 7, a significantly higher blastocyst rate was noted in the Corral (R) dish used during IVM and IVC than when only used during IVM (12.9% +/- 2.10 versus 22.8% +/- 2.67) (P < 0.05). However, no significant differences in blastocyst yield were observed anymore between treatment groups at day 8 post insemination. Conclusions: In the present study, the Corral (R) dish was used for in vitro embryo production (IVP) in cattle; allowing to allocate oocytes and/or embryos per donor. As fresh embryo transfers on day 7 have higher pregnancy outcomes, the Corral (R) dish offers an added value for commercial OPU/IVP, since a higher blastocyst development at day 7 is obtained when the Corral (R) dish is used during IVM and IVC

An Optimal Execution Problem with Market Impact

We study an optimal execution problem in a continuous-time market model that considers market impact. We formulate the problem as a stochastic control problem and investigate properties of the corresponding value function. We find that right-continuity at the time origin is associated with the strength of market impact for large sales, otherwise the value function is continuous. Moreover, we show the semi-group property (Bellman principle) and characterise the value function as a viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We introduce some examples where the forms of the optimal strategies change completely, depending on the amount of the trader's security holdings and where optimal strategies in the Black-Scholes type market with nonlinear market impact are not block liquidation but gradual liquidation, even when the trader is risk-neutral.Comment: 36 pages, 8 figures, a modified version of the article "An optimal execution problem with market impact" in Finance and Stochastics (2014

Prospects for radical emissions reduction through behaviour and lifestyle change

Over the past two decades, scholars and practitioners across the social sciences, in policy and beyond have proposed, trialled and developed a wide range of theoretical and practical approaches designed to bring about changes in behaviours and lifestyles that contribute to climate change. With the exception of the establishment of a small number of iconic behaviours such as recycling, it has however proved extremely difficult to bring about meaningful transformations in personal greenhouse gas emissions at either the individual or societal level, with multiple reviews now pointing to the limited efficacy of current approaches. We argue that the majority of approaches designed to achieve mitigation have been constrained by the need to operate within prevailing social scientific, economic and political orthodoxies which have precluded the possibility of non-marginal change. In this paper we ask what a truly radical approach to reducing personal emissions would look like from social science perspectives which challenge the unstated assumptions severely limiting action to date, and which explore new alternatives for change. We emphasise the difficulties likely to impede the instituting of genuinely radical societal change regarding climate change mitigation, whilst proposing ways that the ground could be prepared for such a transformation to take place

A Delayed Black and Scholes Formula I

In this article we develop an explicit formula for pricing European options when the underlying stock price follows a non-linear stochastic differential delay equation (sdde). We believe that the proposed model is sufficiently flexible to fit real market data, and is yet simple enough to allow for a closed-form representation of the option price. Furthermore, the model maintains the no-arbitrage property and the completeness of the market. The derivation of the option-pricing formula is based on an equivalent martingale measure

Quadratic BSDEs driven by a continuous martingale and application to utility maximization problem

In this paper, we study a class of quadratic Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) which arises naturally when studying the problem of utility maximization with portfolio constraints. We first establish existence and uniqueness results for such BSDEs and then, we give an application to the utility maximization problem. Three cases of utility functions will be discussed: the exponential, power and logarithmic ones