Agriculture is the main driver of deforestation in Tanzania

Reducing deforestation can generate multiple economic, social and ecological benefits by safeguarding the climate and other ecosystem services provided by forests. Understanding the relative contribution of different drivers of deforestation is needed to guide policies seeking to maintain natural forest cover. We assessed 119 randomly selected plots from areas deforested between 2010 and 2017, in Tanzania. Through ground surveys and stakeholder interviews we assessed the proximate deforestation drivers at each point. Crop cultivation was the most commonly observed driver occurring in 89% of plots, compared to livestock grazing (69%) and charcoal (35%). There was evidence of fire in 77% of plots. Most deforestation events involved multiple drivers, with 83% of plots showing signs of two or more drivers. Stakeholder interviews identified agriculture as the primary deforestation driver in 81% of plots, substantially more than charcoal production (12%), timber harvesting (1%) and livestock (1%). Policy-makers in Tanzania have sought to reduce deforestation by reducing demand for charcoal. However, our work demonstrates that agriculture, not charcoal, is the main driver of deforestation in Tanzania. Beyond protected areas, there is no clear policy limiting the conversion of forests to agricultural land. Reducing deforestation in Tanzania requires greater inter-sectoral coordination between the agriculture, livestock, land, energy and forest sectors

Phylogenetic relationships of African microhylid frogs inferred from DNA sequences of mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA genes

The phylogenetic relationships of microhylid frogs are poorly understood. The first molecular phylogeny for continental African microhylids is presented, including representatives of all subfamilies, six of the eight genera, and the enigmatic hemisotid Hemisus. Mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA sequence data were analysed using parsimony, likelihood and Bayesian methods. Analyses of the data are consistent with the monophyly of all sampled subfamilies and genera. Hemisus does not nest within either brevicipitines or non-brevicipitines. It is possibly the sister group to brevicipitines, in which case brevicipitines might not be microhylids. Phrynomantis and Hoplophryne potentially group with non-African, non-brevicipitine microhylids, in agreement with recent morphological and molecular data. Within brevicipitines, Breviceps is recovered as the sister group to a clade of Callulina+Spelaeophryne+Probreviceps. The relationships among the genera within this latter clade are unclear, being sensitive to the method of analysis. Optimal trees suggest the Probreviceps macrodactylus subspecies complex might be paraphyletic with respect to P. uluguruensis, corroborating preliminary morphological studies indicating that P. m. rungwensis may be a distinct species. P. m. loveridgei may be paraphyletic with respect to P. m. macrodactylus, though this is not strongly supported. Some biogeographic hypotheses are examined in light of these findings

Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot

Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the pre-satellite era. Here we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitised historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8 million ha) and 10% (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a five-fold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95% CI: 0.4-1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) . This is at least three-fold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8-5.7) Mg C ha(-1) , compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2-16.6) Mg C ha(-1) within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data is available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Detecting and predicting forest degradation: A comparison of ground surveys and remote sensing in Tanzanian forests

Summary • Tropical forest degradation is widely recognised as a driver of biodiversity loss and a major source of carbon emissions. However, in contrast to deforestation, the more gradual changes from degradation are challenging to detect, quantify, and monitor. Here we present a field protocol for rapid, area-standardised quantifications of forest condition, which can also be done by non-specialists. Using the example of threatened high-biodiversity forests in Tanzania, we analyse and predict degradation based on this method. We also compare the field data to optical and radar remote sensing datasets, thereby conducting a large-scale, independent test of the ability of these products to map degradation in East Africa from space. • Our field data consist of 551 ‘degradation’ transects collected between 1996 and 2010, covering >600 ha across 86 forests in the Eastern Arc Mountains and coastal forests. • Degradation was widespread, with over one third of the study forests – mostly protected areas – having more than 10% of their trees cut. Commonly-used optical remote-sensing maps of complete tree cover loss only detected severe impacts (≥25% of trees cut), i.e. a focus on remotely sensed deforestation would have significantly underestimated carbon emissions and declines in forest quality. Radar-based maps detected even low impacts (<5% of trees cut) in ~90% of cases. The field data additionally allowed to differentiate different types and drivers of harvesting, with spatial patterns suggesting that logging and charcoal production were mainly driven by demand from major cities. • Rapid degradation surveys and radar remote sensing can provide an early warning and guide appropriate conservation and policy responses. This is particularly important in areas where forest degradation is more widespread than deforestation, such as in east and southern Africa

Correction to: Quantifying and understanding carbon storage and sequestration within the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania, a tropical biodiversity hotspot

Abstract Upon publication of the original article [1], the authors noticed that the figure labelling for Fig. 4 in the online version was processed wrong. The top left panel should be panel a, with the panels to its right being b and c. d and e should be the panels on the lower row, and f is correct. The graphs themselves are all correct. It is simply the letter labels that are wrong

Detecting and predicting forest degradation: A comparison of ground surveys and remote sensing in Tanzanian forests

Funder: Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013724Funder: Global Environment Facility; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011150Funder: Danish International Development Agency; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011054Funder: Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services DivisionFunder: Finnish International Development AgencyFunder: Leverhulme Trust; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275Societal Impact Statement: Large areas of tropical forest are degraded. While global tree cover is being mapped with increasing accuracy from space, much less is known about the quality of that tree cover. Here we present a field protocol for rapid assessments of forest condition. Using extensive field data from Tanzania, we show that a focus on remotely‐sensed deforestation would not detect significant reductions in forest quality. Radar‐based remote sensing of degradation had good agreement with the ground data, but the ground surveys provided more insights into the nature and drivers of degradation. We recommend the combined use of rapid field assessments and remote sensing to provide an early warning, and to allow timely and appropriately targeted conservation and policy responses. Summary: Tropical forest degradation is widely recognised as a driver of biodiversity loss and a major source of carbon emissions. However, in contrast to deforestation, more gradual changes from degradation are challenging to detect, quantify and monitor. Here, we present a field protocol for rapid, area‐standardised quantifications of forest condition, which can also be implemented by non‐specialists. Using the example of threatened high‐biodiversity forests in Tanzania, we analyse and predict degradation based on this method. We also compare the field data to optical and radar remote‐sensing datasets, thereby conducting a large‐scale, independent test of the ability of these products to map degradation in East Africa from space. Our field data consist of 551 ‘degradation’ transects collected between 1996 and 2010, covering >600 ha across 86 forests in the Eastern Arc Mountains and coastal forests. Degradation was widespread, with over one‐third of the study forests—mostly protected areas—having more than 10% of their trees cut. Commonly used optical remote‐sensing maps of complete tree cover loss only detected severe impacts (≥25% of trees cut), that is, a focus on remotely‐sensed deforestation would have significantly underestimated carbon emissions and declines in forest quality. Radar‐based maps detected even low impacts (<5% of trees cut) in ~90% of cases. The field data additionally differentiated types and drivers of harvesting, with spatial patterns suggesting that logging and charcoal production were mainly driven by demand from major cities. Rapid degradation surveys and radar remote sensing can provide an early warning and guide appropriate conservation and policy responses. This is particularly important in areas where forest degradation is more widespread than deforestation, such as in eastern and southern Africa

Agricultural fallows are the main driver of natural forest regeneration in Tanzania

Rates and drivers of natural forest regeneration are areas of uncertainty for policy, forest management and climate change mitigation. In this study, the rate of deforestation and the rate and drivers of natural regeneration are described for 56 million hectares of village land in Tanzania, a country undergoing rapid deforestation. To determine the regeneration and deforestation rates, remote sensing (RS) data for 500 randomly selected points were reviewed for a 34 year period from 1987 to 2021 using Google Earth Engine. Over this period, regeneration, involving a transition from forest to non-forest and back to forest was detected on 4.8% of village land (95% CI: 3.1%–7.1%), while 0.8% of land transitioned from non-forest to forest (95% CI: 0.2%–2.04%). 22% of village land was deforested (95% CI: 18.6%–26.1%), equivalent to a mean annual net loss of 0.35 million hectares of forest. Using a combination of RS data, field plots and structured interviews, the land cover change trajectories of 180 regenerating plots, in 10 sampling clusters, were assessed to identify regeneration drivers and assess biomass and tree species accumulation rates. Agricultural fallows are the regeneration driver in 47% of plots (95% CI: 39.8%–54.8%). Other common regeneration drivers include abandonment of cultivated areas for reasons apart from fallowing, conservation and post wood-extraction abandonment in 19% (95% CI: 13.9%–26%), 18.3% (95% CI: 13%–24.8%) and 12.8% (95% CI: 8.3%–18.6%) of plots, respectively. The mean carbon sequestration rate was 1.4 Mg C ha−1 y−1, equivalent to 4.3 Tg C y−1 (95% CI: 3.9–4.7 Tg C y−1) across the 3.15 million hectares of regenerating village land forest. The mean species accumulation rate was 1.08 species y−1 (95% CI: 1.0–1.2). Regeneration time, location and precipitation have the greatest influence on biomass and species richness. The study highlights the potential for natural regeneration to contribute to global and national climate and biodiversity goals and to sustainable, productive forest management. The importance of cooperation and policy-alignment between the forest, agriculture and land sectors are under-scored

Towards regional, error-bounded landscape carbon storage estimates for data-deficient areas of the world

Monitoring landscape carbon storage is critical for supporting and validating climate change mitigation policies. These may be aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, or increasing terrestrial carbon storage at local, regional and global levels. However, due to data-deficiencies, default global carbon storage values for given land cover types such as ‘lowland tropical forest’ are often used, termed ‘Tier 1 type’ analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such estimates may be erroneous when used at regional scales. Furthermore uncertainty assessments are rarely provided leading to estimates of land cover change carbon fluxes of unknown precision which may undermine efforts to properly evaluate land cover policies aimed at altering land cover dynamics. Here, we present a repeatable method to estimate carbon storage values and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all five IPCC carbon pools (aboveground live carbon, litter, coarse woody debris, belowground live carbon and soil carbon) for data-deficient regions, using a combination of existing inventory data and systematic literature searches, weighted to ensure the final values are regionally specific. The method meets the IPCC ‘Tier 2’ reporting standard. We use this method to estimate carbon storage over an area of33.9 million hectares of eastern Tanzania, reporting values for 30 land cover types. We estimate that this area stored 6.33 (5.92–6.74) Pg C in the year 2000. Carbon storage estimates for the same study area extracted from five published Africa-wide or global studies show a mean carbon storage value of ~50% of that reported using our regional values, with four of the five studies reporting lower carbon storage values. This suggests that carbon storage may have been underestimated for this region of Africa. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining regionally appropriate carbon storage estimates, and shows how such values can be produced for a relatively low investment.<br/

The influence of energy policy on charcoal consumption in urban households in Tanzania

The sustainability of energy use in the residential sector has relevance for global initiatives to achieve sustainable development and limit climate change. Using the city of Dar es Salaam, in Tanzania, as a case study, we look at how national energy policy has influenced household cooking energy use between 1990 and 2018, and how energy policy could achieve further progress to realise national and global priorities. The study involved questionnaire surveys of households, retailers, transporters and producers of charcoal; semi-structured interviews with government officials and non-charcoal fuel suppliers; price data collection; a comparative analysis of prices and taxes for different cooking fuels; and policy and document review. Trends in energy policy and demand for different fuels, are compared. We find that Tanzania's national energy policies have focused on achieving an energy transition from biomass to electricity and fossil fuels, with an increasing focus on supply-side issues. Fiscal policy tools have been used effectively to reduce demand for kerosene, while increasing demand for liquefied petroleum gas. However, this has not resulted in a transition away from biomass, with most households using multiple fuels (fuel stacking). Charcoal remains the cheapest (excluding firewood) and most widely used fuel, reflecting the strong influence of price in consumer fuel choices. Energy policy needs to acknowledge the continued dominance of charcoal in urban energy use. In the context of rapid urbanisation and increased energy demand, there is a need for sustainable urban energy planning across a range of fuel types including charcoal, in ways that balance economic, social and environmental outcomes. Greater inter-sectoral coordination is needed to improve the sustainability of urban residential energy supplies