Regulations on conflict of interest for higher civil servants and public officials - Enhancing a state’s legitimacy or just a pretty illusion?

OECD and other organizations argues in favor of the implementation of regulations on conflict of interest for higher civil servants and public officials, often including quarantine time for these employees when changing jobs. They do this with the argument that it will increase the population’s confidence in their governments, which again is claimed to be a cornerstone of the functioning of the states. The goal of this study is to investigate the connection between regulations on conflict of interest and state legitimacy. It is done so through a quantitative study on the OECD-countries, where it is almost even divided between the countries that have and do not have these regulations. The result of the quantitative study implies that regulations on conflict of interest do not have an impact on state legitimacy. Different explanations are presented, varying from the actual need of the regulations as a whole to the need of formalizing a normative concept

Norway's 2022 national population projections: Results, methods and assumptions

This report presents results from the 2022 national population projections, along with a detailed account of the underlying assumptions. It also describes how Statistics Norway produces the Norwegian national population projections, using the BEFINN model. The national population projections are published biennially.publishedVersio

Can the use of road safety measures on national roads in Norway be interpreted as an informal application of the ALARP principle?

The ALARP principle, stating that risks should be reduced to a level “As Low As Reasonably Practicable”, is widely known and discussed in risk management. The principle is flexible, as the interpretation of the key concepts of reasonable and practicable can be adapted to different contexts. This paper discusses whether the use of road safety measures on national roads in Norway can be interpreted as an informal application of the ALARP-principle. According to official guidelines, priority setting for major road investments should be based on cost-benefit analysis. Most road safety measures are low-cost projects that have traditionally not been subject to cost-benefit analysis. A use of these measures regarded as reasonable in the ALARP sense may include considerations of cost, efficiency and fair distribution. Data on 328 road safety measures implemented around 2000 is used to evaluate factors influencing their use. It is argued that the use of these measures is consistent with an informal application of the ALARP-principle.publishedVersio

Hvordan vurderer barnevernsansatte ambisjonen om økt bruk av slekt og nettverk som fosterforeldre?

Master i samfunnsvitenskap med fordypning i Human Resource Management - 201

On the use of criteria based on the SMART acronym to assess quality of performance indicators for safety management in process industries

Management of safety, and barriers in particular, includes using information expressing performance, i.e. use of safety performance indicators. For this information to be useful, the indicators should demonstrate adequate quality. In other words, they should satisfy some predefined set of quality criteria. Without showing adequate quality, the indicators are generally unable to provide sufficient support for barrier management, which could result in poor decisions. In this article, the use of the SMART criteria is considered to assess the quality of safety performance indicators in process industries. SMART being an acronym for ‘specificity’, ‘measurability’ or ‘manageability’, ‘achievability’, ‘relevancy’ and ‘time-based’, covering five key aspects and criteria for assessing the quality of an indicator. A discussion on whether the indicators are able to demonstrate adequate quality by satisfying these criteria has been conducted. The finding is that all of the SMART criteria should be satisfied for a safety performance indicator to demonstrate acceptable quality and to be regarded as useful to support barrier management decision-making. However, it has also been observed that including the ‘M’ criterion in the assessment of quality is not needed. When all the other criteria are satisfied there is no way the conclusions could be misleading as a result of measurability or manageability aspects. Hence, for safety performance indicator quality, only four of the criteria are assessed and suggested for such situations to shorten the acronym to ‘STAR’. A key safety indicator used in downstream process facilities, i.e. ‘dangerous fluid overfilling events’, motivated from the 2005 Texas City refinery accident, is used to illustrate the situation. The indicator is also applied to another incident, the Buncefield oil storage depot's accident in 2005, to provide a broader context for using it. The findings in this article could also be applied beyond the context studied. This means that, despite focusing on safety indicators in the process industries, the findings are considered as relevant and applicable to other types of performance indicators and to other energy industries.publishedVersio

Evaluation of guidance provided by international standards on metrics and timelines for run-life estimation of oil and gas equipment

Run-life is a concept used in the oil and gas industry to express time to failure for running equipment. When estimating this as part of reliability engineering activities, different metrics and time periods are considered. One metric is the traditional ‘mean time to failure’ (MTTF), but alternatives such as ‘average run-time’ or ‘average run-life’ can also be considered. For calculating these metrics, different time periods can be used. For example, when estimating the MTTF of well completion equipment, operating times or running times are normally used. However, the periods can also include idle time, where the item is technically available, but associated parts of the production facility might not be. For consistency across the industry, on how to interpret the metrics and what to include in calculating them when performing estimations, ISO 14224 (2016) and IEC 60050-192 (2015) in tandem provide guidance to ensure quality in reliability data collection and analysis. While MTTF is defined and a theoretical basis is given, guidance on when to use the different timelines for the estimation is sparse. Neither ‘run-time’ nor ‘run-life’ is explicitly defined in these standards. They provide no guidance on how to interpret and use the metrics ‘average run-time’ and ‘average run-life’, despite these sometimes replacing the MTTF in reliability analyses. In this article, we discuss the variation in metrics and associated timeline definitions. A main purpose is to identify improvement potentials in the international standards and suggest how to achieve appropriate guidance for consistent interpretation and use of time-to-failure metrics in the oil and gas industry. An additional purpose is to clarify whether all these metrics are really needed. There is particularly confusion around ‘run-time’, which some interpret as a reliability metric and some as an item’s cumulative running time. One suggestion is that the standards focus more on ‘running time’, by adding a formal definition, and clarify how it compares with operating time and run-time, and when to use it. We also suggest introducing ‘running time to failure’ and ‘operating time to failure’, which would be consistent with existing terminology, while clarifying the timeline being referred to. We use examples from well drilling and completion systems, to show the reliability implications for modeling and calculations.publishedVersio

Att vända kappan efter vinden - En uppsats om partistrategi hos Miljöpartiet de Gröna

Ur infallsvinkeln att partier antar precisa strategier för att tillskansa sig makt syftar denna uppsats till att besvara varför Miljöpartiet de Gröna förändrat sin inställning till en mer positiv hållning, gällande ett svenskt medlemskap i den Europeiska Unionen. Två teoretiska utgångspunkter ligger till grund för uppsatsen som möjliga förklaringsmodeller; att partiet följt en förändring hos väljarskaran i enlighet med Anthony Downs (1985) eller att partiet förändrats i önskan att ingå i en koalitionsbildning i enlighet med Gunnar Sjöblom (1968). De empiriska resultaten visar att både väljarna – genom statistisk analys av information från SOM-institutet, och Miljöpartiet – genom granskande av partiprogram och valmanifest, har blivit mer positivt inställda till EU. Av resultaten dras slutsatsen att förändringen hos partiet, till en mer positiv attityd gentemot den Europeiska Unionen, bottnar i både en rörelse efter partiets väljare samt en rörelse närmare Socialdemokraterna med synen på dessa som en potentiell samarbetspartner

Will horizontal trade promotes cost awareness

Erfaringsbasert master, 90 studiepoeng.Denne masteroppgaven tar for seg produktivitet og effektivitet i offentlige organisasjoner. Formålet med oppgaven er å få større innsikt og forståelse for det systemet Forsvaret benytter ved kjøp og salg av interne tjenester. Vi har sett nærmere på de ønskede effektene Forsvaret skal oppnå, ved bruk av horisontal samhandel og om arbeidsformer hentet fra privat sektor fremmer effektivitet og produktivitet i Forsvaret. Horisontal samhandel er et internt marked og er en form for konkurranseutsetting, som er et av de mest brukte virkemiddelene innenfor New Public Management. New Public Management er en reformbølge som har preget offentlig sektor med hyppig omstrukturering og fornyelse. Dette har ført til et nedtonet skille mellom offentlig- og privat sektor. For å øke organisasjonens effektivitet og produktivitet har Forsvaret implementert horisontal samhandel. Økt kostnadsbevissthet samt bevisste og krevende kunder er noen av effektene som skal oppnås gjennom virkemidlet og derav øke effektiviteten. Gjennom en kvantitativ spørreundersøkelse har vi fått svar på om de ansatte i Ingeniørbataljonen opplever at de er kostnadsbevisste samt krevende og bevisste kunder. Teorier som presenteres i oppgaven viser at det er noe mer utfordrende å måle effektivitet og produktivitet i offentlige organisasjoner sammenlignet med private organisasjoner. Resultatene fra spørreundersøkelsen viser at det ikke er horisontal samhandel som er årsaken til kostnadsbevissthet, men en bakenforliggende variabel. Med bakgrunn i resultatene og de teoretiske eksemplene kan vi påstå at arbeidsformer fra privat sektor ikke egner seg i like stor grad for å øke effektiviteten og produktiviteten i offentlig sektor.Engelsk sammendrag (abstract) This master thesis addresses productivity and efficiency in public organizations. The purpose of this assignment is to gain insight and understanding of the system the Norwegian Defence utilizes for purchase and sale of internal services. We have looked into the Norwegian Defence’s desired effects through the use of Horizontal Trade, and if methods used within the private sector, can promote efficiency and productivity within the Norwegian Defence. Horizontal trade is an internal market and a way of making internal flow of money and goods subject to competition, which is one of the most commonly, used tools within New Public Management. New Public Management has been a reform that has put its mark on the public sector with frequent restructuring and renewal. This has led to a dimmed distinction between the public and private sectors. The Norwegian Defence has implemented horizontal Trade to increase the organization's efficiency and productivity. Increased cost awareness, as well as vigilant and demanding customers are some desired effects in order to increase efficiency. Through a quantitative survey we have asked if the employees in the Engineer Battalion experience that they are cost aware, demanding and attentive customers. Theories presented in the thesis show that it is somewhat more challenging to measure efficiency and productivity within public organizations compared to private organizations. Based on the results of the survey and the theory, we can say that methods created for, and used within, private sector is not equally suitable for increasing efficiency and productivity in the public sector

Nasjonale befolkningsframskrivinger 2024. Sammendrag av forutsetninger og resultater

I de kommende tiårene viser de nasjonale befolkningsframskrivingene 2024 lavere befolkningsvekst, sterk aldring av befolkningen og en større, mer etablert og eldre innvandrerbefolkning enn i dag. Ifølge hovedalternativet vil den norske befolkningen øke fra rundt 5,55 millioner i dag til 6 millioner i 2040 og til over 6,2 millioner i 2100. Vi forventer flere fødsler enn dødsfall frem til 2045, hvor situasjonen snur, og befolkningsveksten blir drevet av innvandring alene. Andelen innvandrere i befolkningen forventes å øke fra litt under 17 prosent i dag til omtrent 22 prosent innen 2050. Samtidig vil den fremtidige innvandrerbefolkningen være mer etablert, med mange som har lang botid. Vi forventer også sterk vekst i eldre aldersgrupper i innvandrerbefolkningen. Dette samsvarer med en bredere trend med aldring av befolkningen i Norge. I løpet av det neste tiåret vil befolkningen bestå av flere eldre personer (65+ år) enn barn og unge (0-19 år). Befolkningen over 80 år, en gruppe som i dag er store brukere av helse- og omsorgstjenester, forventes å mer enn doble seg innen 2050 og utgjøre nesten én million individer innen 2100. Resultatene av befolkningsframskrivingene avhenger av forutsetningene som brukes for de under liggende demografiske komponentene. Vi bruker ulike forutsetninger for fremtidig endring innen fruktbarhet, forventet levealder og innvandring: Hovedalternativet (M); høy (H); lav (L); konstant (C); null nettoinnvandring (E); og ingen innvandring (0). Vi framskriver befolkningen i 15 kombinasjoner av disse forutsetningene. Hvert framskrivingsalternativ beskrives ved hjelp av tre bokstaver i følgende rekkefølge: Fruktbarhet, forventet levealder og innvandring. Begrepet ‘hovedalternativ’ brukes for å referere til MMM-alternativet, som indikerer bruk av forutsetningene i hovedalternativet for alle tre komponentene. Ifølge de nasjonale befolkningsframskrivingene er det forventet at fruktbarheten gradvis vil øke fra dagens historisk lave nivå (1,40 barn per kvinne) til 1,44 i 2025 og 1,57 i 2030. På lengre sikt antar vi at fruktbarheten vil stabilisere seg rundt 1,66 (lav 1,21, høy 1,91). Forventet levealder forventes å øke gjennom hele århundret. For menn antas den gjennomsnittlige forventede levealderen å øke fra 81,4 år i 2023 til 86,0 (lav 83,3, høy 88,4) år i 2050 og 92,1 (lav 87,3, høy 96,3) år i 2100. For kvinner forventes en økning fra 84,6 år i 2023 til 88,3 (lav 85,9, høy 90,5) år i 2050 og 93,4 (lav 89,0, høy 97,3) år i 2100. Innvandringen på kort sikt forventes å være lavere enn i 2022 og 2023, men likevel høy fra et historisk perspektiv, på grunn av den forventede ankomsten av ukrainske flyktninger. I det hovedalternativet antar vi at innvandringen til Norge vil avta fra 85 000 i 2023 til 76 000 i 2024 (lav 53 000, høy 94 000). Deretter stabiliserer innvandringen seg på mer stabile, langsiktig trend, med antatt innvandring rundt 64 000 (lav 45 000, høy 88 000) i 2025, 49 000 (lav 39 000, høy 59 000) i 2030, 44 000 (lav 30 000, høy 66 000) i 2050 og 40 000 (lav 15 000, høy 88 000) i 2100. De framskrevne utvandringene avhenger delvis av innvandringen, fordi innvandrere (særlig med kort botid) har høyere sannsynlighet for å utvandre. I hovedalternativet forventer vi en nedgang i nettoinnvandring fra omtrent 41 000 (lav 19 000, høy 59 000) i 2024 til omtrent 16 000 (lav 9 000, høy 24 000) i 2030. Fra 2050 forventer hovedalternativet årlig nettoinnvandring på rundt 13 000. Befolkningen framskrives etter alder og kjønn frem til år 2100. Innvandrere fra tre landgrupper, norskfødte med to innvandrerforeldre og resten av befolkningen, framskrives som separate grupper. Rapporten gir først en oversikt over hovedresultatene, etterfulgt av en mer detaljert presentasjon og diskusjon av fruktbarhets-, dødelighets- og migrasjonsforutsetningene. Befolkningsframskrivinger er i seg selv usikre. Fremtidig innvandring er gjenstand for den sterkeste graden av usikkerhet, men trender innen fruktbarhet, dødelighet og utvandring kan også ende opp ganske annerledes enn forventet. Den pågående krigen i Ukraina betyr at usikkerheten, i det minste på kort sikt, er mer uttalt enn vanlig

Evaluation of the Medical Student Research Programme in Norwegian medical schools. A survey of students and supervisors

Background: The Medical Student Research Programme is a national education and grant scheme for medical students who wish to carry out research in parallel with their studies. The purpose of the programme is to increase recruitment of people with a standard medical degree to medical research. The Research Programme was established in 2002 and underwent a thorough evaluation during the spring of 2007. The evaluation should investigate if the programme had fulfilled its objectives of increased recruitment to medical research, in addition to the students' and supervisors' satisfaction of the programme, and unwanted differences between the universities. Methods: Data was collected from students, supervisors and administrative staff via web-based questionnaires. Information about admission, implementation, results achieved and satisfaction was analysed and compared between the four Norwegian medical schools. In addition, the position of the scheme in relation to the national Quality Reform of Higher Education was analysed. Results: At the end of 2006, the Medical Student Research Programme had recruited 265 medical students to research. These consisted of 214 active students, 35 who had completed their studies and only 17 who had dropped out. Both students and supervisors were generally very satisfied with the scheme, including the curriculum, the results achieved and the administrative service. The majority of students wanted to continue their research towards a PhD and, of those who had completed the Medical Student Research Programme, practically all had published one or several scientific papers. The survey showed only small differences between the four medical schools, despite their choice of somewhat different solutions in terms of administration and organisation. The Medical Student Research Programme satisfies the majority of the demands of the Quality Reform, however as an integrated research programme aimed at a PhD it presupposes access to PhD courses before the completion of medical studies, as well as the ability to include undergraduate scientific work in a PhD thesis. Conclusion: The Medical Student Research Programme has led to an increase in the recruitment of graduated physicians to medical research in Norway. It will only be possible to evaluate whether this in turn will result in a larger number of PhDs in 3–5 years; this will also depend on the access to grants and fellowships.publishedVersio