State of the California current 2013-14: El niño looming

In 2013, the California current was dominated by strong coastal upwelling and high productivity. Indices of total cumulative upwelling for particular coastal locations reached some of the highest values on record. Chlorophyll a levels were high throughout spring and summer. Catches of upwelling-related fish species were also high. After a moderate drop in upwelling during fall 2013, the California current system underwent a major change in phase. Three major basin-scale indicators, the PDO, the NPGO, and the ENSO-MEI, all changed phase at some point during the winter of 2013/14. The PDO changed to positive values, indicative of warmer waters in the North Pacific; the NPGO to negative values, indicative of lower productivity along the coast; and the MEI to positive values, indicative of an oncoming El Niño. Whereas the majority of the California Current system appears to have transitioned to an El Niño state by August 2014, based on decreases in upwelling and chlorophyll a concentration, and increases in SST, there still remained pockets of moderate upwelling, cold water, and high chlorophyll a biomass at various central coast locations, unlike patterns seen during the more major El Niños (e.g., the 97-98 event). Catches of rockfish, market squid, euphausiids, and juvenile sanddab remained high along the central coast, whereas catches of sardine and anchovy were low throughout the CCS. 2014 appears to be heading towards a moderate El Niño state, with some remaining patchy regions of upwellingdriven productivity along the coast. Superimposed on this pattern, three major regions have experienced possibly non-El Niño-related warming since winter: the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and offshore of southern California. It is unclear how this warming may interact with the predicted El Niño, but the result will likely be reduced growth or reproduction for many key fisheries species

State of the California current 2012-13: No such thing as an “average” year

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42°N, but regions to the south, especially 33° to 36°N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42°N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer

The Making of a Productivity Hotspot in the Coastal Ocean

Highly productive hotspots in the ocean often occur where complex physical forcing mechanisms lead to aggregation of primary and secondary producers. Understanding how hotspots persist, however, requires combining knowledge of the spatio-temporal linkages between geomorphology, physical forcing, and biological responses with the physiological requirements and movement of top predators.) off the Baja California peninsula, Mexico.We have identified the set of conditions that lead to a persistent top predator hotspot, which increases our understanding of how highly migratory species exploit productive regions of the ocean. These results will aid in the development of spatially and environmentally explicit management strategies for marine species of conservation concern

Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean - marine ecosystem services - are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures. Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives - such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes - are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Considerations for management strategy evaluation for small pelagic fishes

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is the state-of-the-art approach for testing and comparing management strategies in a way that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty (e.g. monitoring, estimation, and implementation). Management strategy evaluation can help identify management strategies that are robust to uncertainty about the life history of the target species and its relationship to other species in the food web. Small pelagic fish (e.g. anchovy, herring and sardine) fulfil an important ecological role in marine food webs and present challenges to the use of MSE and other simulation-based evaluation approaches. This is due to considerable stochastic variation in their ecology and life history, which leads to substantial observation and process uncertainty. Here, we summarize the current state of MSE for small pelagic fishes worldwide. We leverage expert input from ecologists and modellers to draw attention to sources of process and observation uncertainty for small pelagic species, providing examples from geographical regions where these species are ecologically, economically and culturally important. Temporal variation in recruitment and other life-history rates, spatial structure and movement, and species interactions are key considerations for small pelagic fishes. We discuss tools for building these into the MSE process, with examples from existing fisheries. We argue that model complexity should be informed by management priorities and whether ecosystem information will be used to generate dynamics or to inform reference points. We recommend that our list of considerations be used in the initial phases of the MSE process for small pelagic fishes or to build complexity on existing single-species models.publishedVersio

Maternal Antibody Transmission in Relation to Mother Fluctuating Asymmetry in a Long-Lived Colonial Seabird: The Yellow-Legged Gull Larus michahellis

Female birds transfer antibodies to their offspring via the egg yolk, thus possibly providing passive immunity against infectious diseases to which hatchlings may be exposed, thereby affecting their fitness. It is nonetheless unclear whether the amount of maternal antibodies transmitted into egg yolks varies with female quality and egg laying order. In this paper, we investigated the transfer of maternal antibodies against type A influenza viruses (anti-AIV antibodies) by a long-lived colonial seabird, the yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis), in relation to fluctuating asymmetry in females, i.e. the random deviation from perfect symmetry in bilaterally symmetric morphological and anatomical traits. In particular, we tested whether females with greater asymmetry transmitted fewer antibodies to their eggs, and whether within-clutch variation in yolk antibodies varied according to the maternal level of fluctuating asymmetry. We found that asymmetric females were in worse physical condition, produced fewer antibodies, and transmitted lower amounts of antibodies to their eggs. We also found that, within a given clutch, yolk antibody level decreased with egg laying order, but this laying order effect was more pronounced in clutches laid by the more asymmetric females. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that maternal quality interacts with egg laying order in determining the amount of maternal antibodies transmitted to the yolks. They also highlight the usefulness of fluctuating asymmetry as a sensitive indicator of female quality and immunocompetence in birds

Maternal Risk of Breeding Failure Remained Low throughout the Demographic Transitions in Fertility and Age at First Reproduction in Finland

Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s) to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood) underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero–even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies

The state of California current, 2001 – 2002 : will the Californa current system keep its cool, or is El Niño coming?

This report summarizes physical and biological conditions in the California Current System (CCS), from Oregon to Baja California, in 2001 and 2002. The principal sources of the observations described here are the CalCOFI (California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations), IMECOCAL (Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California), and U.S. GLOBECLTOP (Global Ecosystems Long-term Observation Program) programs. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Pacific point to a fourth consecutive La Niña-like year. This has contributed to generally stronger than normal upwelling and uncharacteristically cool waters in much of the CCS, a pattern that has persisted since late 1998. Biological productivity has been generally higher as well, particularly off Oregon. Within the observed interannual fluctuations of recent years, these conditions suggest a generally elevated production off California and Oregon, but cool conditions have led to lower than normal zooplankton biomass off Baja California. Although the tropical Pacific has exhibited some indications of a developing El Niño, it is not likely to impact the CCS during the productive upwelling season of 2002. These observations are continuing evidence that a regime shift may have occurred in 1998, resulting in substantial change in ecosystem structure in the CCS. Continued monitoring and analysis of the state of the CCS in this context is needed. We outline a plan for an integrated monitoring program for the entire region, through the creation of ACCEO (Alliance for California Current Ecosystem Observation)

State of the California Current 2014-15: Impacts of the Warm-Water "Blob"

In 2014, the California Current (~28˚–48˚N) saw average, or below average, coastal upwelling and relatively low productivity in most locations, except from 38˚–43˚N during June and July. Chlorophyll-a levels were low throughout spring and summer at most locations, except in a small region around 39˚N. Catches of juvenile rockfish (an indicator of upwelling-related fish species) remained high throughout the area surveyed (32˚–43˚N). In the fall of 2014, as upwelling ceased, many locations saw an unprecedented increase in sea surface temperatures (anomalies as large as 4˚C), particularly at 45˚N due to the coastal intrusion of an extremely anomalous pool of warm water. This warm surface anomaly had been building offshore in the Gulf of Alaska since the fall of 2013, and has been referred to as the “blob.” Values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) continued to climb during 2014, indicative of the increase in warm coastal surface waters, whereas the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index (NPGO) saw a slight rebound to more neutral values (indicative of average productivity levels) during 2014. During spring 2015, the upwelling index was slightly higher than average for locations in the central and northern region, but remained below average at latitudes south of 35˚N. Chlorophyll a levels were slightly higher than average in ~0.5˚ latitude patches north of 35˚N, whereas productivity and phytoplankton biomass were low south of Pt. Conception. Catches of rockfish remained high along most of the coast, however, market squid remained high only within the central coast (36˚–38˚N), and euphausiid abundance decreased everywhere, as compared to the previous year. Sardine and anchovy were nearly absent from the southern portion of the California Current system (CCS), whereas their larvae were found off the coast of Oregon and Washington during winter for the first time in many years. Waters warmed dramatically in the southern California region due to a change in wind patterns similar to that giving rise to the blob in the broader northeast Pacific. For most of the coast, there were intrusions of species never found before or found at much higher abundances than usual, including fish, crustaceans, tunicates and other gelatinous zooplankton, along with other species often indicative of an El Niño. Thus species richness was high in many areas given the close juxtaposition of coastal upwelling-related species with the offshore warm-water intrusive or El Niño-typical taxa. Thus the California Current by 2015 appears to have transitioned to a very different state than previous observations