Quantifying the impact of community quarantine on SARS transmission in Ontario: estimation of secondary case count difference and number needed to quarantine

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Community quarantine is controversial, and the decision to use and prepare for it should be informed by specific quantitative evidence of benefit. Case-study reports on 2002-2004 SARS outbreaks have discussed the role of quarantine in the community in transmission. However, this literature has not yielded quantitative estimates of the reduction in secondary cases attributable to quarantine as would be seen in other areas of health policy and cost-effectiveness analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from the 2003 Ontario, Canada, SARS outbreak, two novel expressions for the impact of quarantine are presented. Secondary Case Count Difference (SCCD) reflects reduction in the average number of transmissions arising from a SARS case in quarantine, relative to not in quarantine, at onset of symptoms. SCCD was estimated using Poisson and negative binomial regression models (with identity link function) comparing the number of secondary cases to each index case for quarantine relative to non-quarantined index cases. The inverse of this statistic is proposed as the number needed to quarantine (NNQ) to prevent one additional secondary transmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our estimated SCCD was 0.133 fewer secondary cases per quarantined versus non-quarantined index case; and a NNQ of 7.5 exposed individuals to be placed in community quarantine to prevent one additional case of transmission in the community. This analysis suggests quarantine can be an effective preventive measure, although these estimates lack statistical precision.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Relative to other health policy areas, literature on quarantine tends to lack in quantitative expressions of effectiveness, or agreement on how best to report differences in outcomes attributable to control measure. We hope to further this discussion through presentation of means to calculate and express the impact of population control measures. The study of quarantine effectiveness presents several methodological and statistical challenges. Further research and discussion are needed to understand the costs and benefits of enacting quarantine, and this includes a discussion of how quantitative benefit should be communicated to decision-makers and the public, and evaluated.</p

Moderate to severe gambling problems and traumatic brain injury: A population-based study

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a common injury characterized by a change in brain function after an external blow to the head and is associated with substance abuse, psychological distress, risk-taking, and impulsivity. Convenience and clinical samples have also linked TBI to problem gambling, but have not ruled out confounding variables such as hazardous drinking and psychological distress. This study examines the relationship between TBI and moderate to severe problem gambling in a general population probability sample controlling for hazardous drinking and psychological distress. The data were obtained from a 2015–2016 cross-sectional general population telephone survey of adults ages 18+from Ontario, Canada (N = 3809). Logistic regression was used to estimate the association as adjusted odds ratios (AOR). Moderate to severe problem gambling was independently associated with a history of TBI after adjusting for potential confounders (AOR: 2.80), and had a statistically significant relationship with psychological distress (AOR = 2.74), hazardous drinking (AOR = 2.69), and lower educational levels (AOR = 0.37). This study provides further data to suggest a link between TBI and moderate to severe problem gambling; however, more research is needed to determine if there is a causal relationship or the potential implications for prevention and treatment

Moderate to severe gambling problems and traumatic brain injury: A population-based study

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a common injury characterized by a change in brain function after an external blow to the head and is associated with substance abuse, psychological distress, risk-taking, and impulsivity. Convenience and clinical samples have also linked TBI to problem gambling, but have not ruled out confounding variables such as hazardous drinking and psychological distress. This study examines the relationship between TBI and moderate to severe problem gambling in a general population probability sample controlling for hazardous drinking and psychological distress. The data were obtained from a 2015–2016 cross-sectional general population telephone survey of adults ages 18+from Ontario, Canada (N = 3809). Logistic regression was used to estimate the association as adjusted odds ratios (AOR). Moderate to severe problem gambling was independently associated with a history of TBI after adjusting for potential confounders (AOR: 2.80), and had a statistically significant relationship with psychological distress (AOR = 2.74), hazardous drinking (AOR = 2.69), and lower educational levels (AOR = 0.37). This study provides further data to suggest a link between TBI and moderate to severe problem gambling; however, more research is needed to determine if there is a causal relationship or the potential implications for prevention and treatment

Inherited variation in immune genes and pathways and glioblastoma risk

To determine whether inherited variations in immune function single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), genes or pathways affect glioblastoma risk, we analyzed data from recent genome-wide association studies in conjunction with predefined immune function genes and pathways. Gene and pathway analyses were conducted on two independent data sets using 6629 SNPs in 911 genes on 17 immune pathways from 525 glioblastoma cases and 602 controls from the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) and a subset of 6029 SNPs in 893 genes from 531 cases and 1782 controls from MD Anderson (MDA). To further assess consistency of SNP-level associations, we also compared data from the UK (266 cases and 2482 controls) and the Mayo Clinic (114 cases and 111 controls). Although three correlated epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) SNPs were consistently associated with glioblastoma in all four data sets (Mantel–Haenzel P values = 1 × 10−5 to 4 × 10−3), independent replication is required as genome-wide significance was not attained. In gene-level analyses, eight immune function genes were significantly (minP < 0.05) associated with glioblastoma; the IL-2RA (CD25) cytokine gene had the smallest minP values in both UCSF (minP = 0.01) and MDA (minP = 0.001) data sets. The IL-2RA receptor is found on the surface of regulatory T cells potentially contributing to immunosuppression characteristic of the glioblastoma microenvironment. In pathway correlation analyses, cytokine signaling and adhesion–extravasation–migration pathways showed similar associations with glioblastoma risk in both MDA and UCSF data sets. Our findings represent the first systematic description of immune genes and pathways that characterize glioblastoma risk

Evaluation of vitamin D biosynthesis and pathway target genes reveals UGT2A1/2 and EGFR polymorphisms associated with epithelial ovarian cancer in African American Women.

An association between genetic variants in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) was previously reported in women of African ancestry (AA). We sought to examine associations between genetic variants in VDR and additional genes from vitamin D biosynthesis and pathway targets (EGFR, UGT1A, UGT2A1/2, UGT2B, CYP3A4/5, CYP2R1, CYP27B1, CYP24A1, CYP11A1, and GC). Genotyping was performed using the custom-designed 533,631 SNP Illumina OncoArray with imputation to the 1,000 Genomes Phase 3 v5 reference set in 755 EOC cases, including 537 high-grade serous (HGSOC), and 1,235 controls. All subjects are of African ancestry (AA). Logistic regression was performed to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We further evaluated statistical significance of selected SNPs using the Bayesian False Discovery Probability (BFDP). A significant association with EOC was identified in the UGT2A1/2 region for the SNP rs10017134 (per allele OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.2-1.7, P = 1.2 × 10-6 , BFDP = 0.02); and an association with HGSOC was identified in the EGFR region for the SNP rs114972508 (per allele OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.6-3.4, P = 1.6 × 10-5 , BFDP = 0.29) and in the UGT2A1/2 region again for rs1017134 (per allele OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.2-1.7, P = 2.3 × 10-5 , BFDP = 0.23). Genetic variants in the EGFR and UGT2A1/2 may increase susceptibility of EOC in AA women. Future studies to validate these findings are warranted. Alterations in EGFR and UGT2A1/2 could perturb enzyme efficacy, proliferation in ovaries, impact and mark susceptibility to EOC.Includes NIHR and CRUK

Assessment of polygenic architecture and risk prediction based on common variants across fourteen cancers

Abstract: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence

Editorial Comment: A Population-Based Case-Control Study Chiropractic Manipulation and Stroke : A Population-Based Case-Control Study Chiropractic Manipulation and Stroke A Population-Based Case-Control Study

Background and Purpose-Several reports have linked chiropractic manipulation of the neck to dissection or occlusion of the vertebral artery. However, previous studies linking such strokes to neck manipulation consist primarily of uncontrolled case series. We designed a population-based nested case-control study to test the association. Methods-Hospitalization records were used to identify vertebrobasilar accidents (VBAs) in Ontario, Canada, during 1993Canada, during -1998. Each of 582 cases was age and sex matched to 4 controls from the Ontario population with no history of stroke at the event date. Public health insurance billing records were used to document use of chiropractic services before the event date. Results-Results for those aged Ͻ45 years showed VBA cases to be 5 times more likely than controls to have visited a chiropractor within 1 week of the VBA (95% CI from bootstrapping, 1.32 to 43.87). Additionally, in the younger age group, cases were 5 times as likely to have had Ն3 visits with a cervical diagnosis in the month before the case&apos;s VBA date (95% CI from bootstrapping, 1.34 to 18.57). No significant associations were found for those aged Ն45 years. Conclusions-While our analysis is consistent with a positive association in young adults, potential sources of bias are also discussed. The rarity of VBAs makes this association difficult to study despite high volumes of chiropractic treatment. Because of the popularity of spinal manipulation, high-quality research on both its risks and benefits is recommended