Using multi-resolution remote sensing to monitor disturbance and climate change impacts on Northern forests

Global forests are experiencing a variety of stresses in response to climate change and human activities. The broad objective of this dissertation is to improve understanding of how temperate and boreal forests are changing by using remote sensing to develop new techniques for detecting change in forest ecosystems and to use these techniques to investigate patterns of change in North American forests. First, I developed and applied a temporal segmentation algorithm to an 11-year time series of MODIS data for a region in the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Through comparison with an existing forest disturbance map, I characterized how the severity and spatial scale of disturbances affect the ability of MODIS to detect these events. Results from these analyses showed that most disturbances occupying more than one-third of a MODIS pixel can be detected but that prior disturbance history and gridding artifacts complicate the signature of forest disturbance events in MODIS data. Second, I focused on boreal forests of Canada, where recent studies have used remote sensing to infer decreases in forest productivity. To investigate these trends, I collected 28 years of Landsat TM and ETM+ data for 11 sites spanning Canada's boreal forests. Using these data, I analyzed how sensor geometry and intra- and inter-sensor calibration influence detection of trends from Landsat time series. Results showed systematic patterns in Landsat time series that reflect sensor geometry and subtle issues related to inter-sensor calibration, including consistently higher red band reflectance values from TM data relative to ETM+ data. In the final chapter, I extended the analyses from my second chapter to explore patterns of change in Landsat time series at an expanded set of 46 sites. Trends in peak-summer values of vegetation indices from Landsat were summarized at the scale of MODIS pixels. Results showed that the magnitude and slope of observed trends reflect patterns in disturbance and land cover and that undisturbed forests in eastern sites showed subtle, but detectable, differences from patterns observed in western sites. Drier forests in western Canada show declining trends, while mostly increasing trends are observed for wetter eastern forests

A new urban landscape in East–Southeast Asia, 2000–2010

East–Southeast Asia is currently one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, with countries such as China climbing from 20 to 50% urbanized in just a few decades. By 2050, these countries are projected to add 1 billion people, with 90% of that growth occurring in cities. This population shift parallels an equally astounding amount of built-up land expansion. However, spatially-and temporally-detailed information on regional-scale changes in urban land or population distribution do not exist; previous efforts have been either sample-based, focused on one country, or drawn conclusions from datasets with substantial temporal/spatial mismatch and variability in urban definitions. Using consistent methodology, satellite imagery and census data for >1000 agglomerations in the East–Southeast Asian region, we show that urban land increased >22% between 2000 and 2010 (from 155 000 to 189 000 km2), an amount equivalent to the area of Taiwan, while urban populations climbed >31% (from 738 to 969 million). Although urban land expanded at unprecedented rates, urban populations grew more rapidly, resulting in increasing densities for the majority of urban agglomerations, including those in both more developed (Japan, South Korea) and industrializing nations (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). This result contrasts previous sample-based studies, which conclude that cities are universally declining in density. The patterns and rates of change uncovered by these datasets provide a unique record of the massive urban transition currently underway in East–Southeast Asia that is impacting local-regional climate, pollution levels, water quality/availability, arable land, as well as the livelihoods and vulnerability of populations in the regio

Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome

Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades

Canadian boreal forest greening and browning trends: an analysis of biogeographic patterns and the relative roles of disturbance versus climate drivers

Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher quality and spatial resolution than imagery used in most previous studies, to characterize biogeographic patterns in greening and browning across Canada's boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada's boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. By examining covariance between changes in NDVI and temperature and precipitation in locations not affected by disturbance, our results isolate and characterize the nature and magnitude of greening and browning directly associated with climate change. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observed greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where forests are more prone to moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada's boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones

Detecting change in urban areas at continental scales with MODIS data

Urbanization is one of the most important components of global environmental change, yet most of what we know about urban areas is at the local scale. Remote sensing of urban expansion across large areas provides information on the spatial and temporal patterns of growth that are essential for understanding differences in socioeconomic and political factors that spur different forms of development, as well the social, environmental, and climatic impacts that result. However, mapping urban expansion globally is challenging: urban areas have a small footprint compared to other land cover types, their features are small, they are heterogeneous in both material composition and configuration, and the form and rates of new development are often highly variable across locations. Here we demonstrate a methodology for monitoring urban land expansion at continental to global scales using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The new method focuses on resolving the spectral and temporal ambiguities between urban/non-urban land and stable/changed areas by: (1) spatially constraining the study extent to known locations of urban land; (2) integrating multi-temporal data from multiple satellite data sources to classify c. 2010 urban extent; and (3) mapping newly built areas (2000–2010) within the 2010 urban land extent using a multi-temporal composite change detection approach based on MODIS 250 m annual maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We test the method in 15 countries in East–Southeast Asia experiencing different rates and manifestations of urban expansion. A two-tiered accuracy assessment shows that the approach characterizes urban change across a variety of socioeconomic/political and ecological/climatic conditions with good accuracy (70–91% overall accuracy by country, 69–89% by biome). The 250 m EVI data not only improve the classification results, but are capable of distinguishing between change and no-change areas in urban areas. Over 80% of the error in the change detection can be related to definitional issues or error propagation, rather than algorithm error. As such, these methods hold great potential for routine monitoring of urban change, as well as for providing a consistent and up-to-date dataset on urban extent and expansion for a rapidly evolving region

A global land cover validation dataset, I: Fundamental design principles

A number of land-cover products, both global and regional, have been produced and more are forthcoming. Assessing their accuracy would be greatly facilitated by a global validation database of reference sites that allows for comparative assessments of uncertainty for multiple land-cover data sets. We propose a stratified random sampling design for collecting reference data. Because the global validation database is intended to be applicable to a variety of land-cover products, the stratification should be implemented independently of any specific map to facilitate general utility of the data. The stratification implemented is based on the Köppen climate/vegetation classification and population density. A map of the Köppen classification was manually edited and intersected by two layers of population density and a land water mask. A total of 21 strata were defined and an initial global sample of 500 reference sites was selected, with each site being a 5¿×¿5 km block. The decision of how to allocate the sample size to strata was informed by examining the distribution of the sample area of land cover for two global products resulting from different sample size allocations to the 21 strata. The initial global sample of 500 sites selected from the Köppen-based stratification indicates that these strata can be used effectively to distribute sample sites among rarer land-cover classes of the two global maps examined, although the strata were not constructed using these maps. This is the first article of two, with the second paper presenting details of how the sampling design can be readily augmented to increase the sample size in targeted strata for the purpose of increasing the sample sizes for rare classes of a particular map being evaluated