Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming

The existence of fine‐grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed ‘microrefugia’. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine‐grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977–2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long‐term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north‐east‐facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost‐free season varied from +11 to −54 days and the increase in annual growing degree‐days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west‐facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change

Microclimate affects landscape level persistence in the British Lepidoptera

Microclimate has been known to drive variation in the distribution and abundance of insects for some time. Until recently however, quantification of microclimatic effects has been limited by computing constraints and the availability of fine-scale biological data. Here, we tested fine-scale patterns of persistence/extinction in butterflies and moths against two computed indices of microclimate derived from Digital Elevation Models: a summer solar index, representing fine-scale variation in temperature, and a topographic wetness index, representing fine-scale variation in moisture availability. We found evidence of microclimate effects on persistence in each of four 20 × 20 km British landscapes selected for study (the Brecks, the Broads, Dartmoor, and Exmoor). Broadly, local extinctions occurred more frequently in areas with higher minimum or maximum solar radiation input, while responses to wetness varied with landscape context. This negative response to solar radiation is consistent with a response to climatic warming, wherein grid squares with particularly high minimum or maximum insolation values provided an increasingly adverse microclimate as the climate warmed. The variable response to wetness in different landscapes may have reflected spatially variable trends in precipitation. We suggest that locations in the landscape featuring cooler minimum and/or maximum temperatures could act as refugia from climatic warming, and may therefore have a valuable role in adapting conservation to climatic change

Climate, landscape, habitat, and woodland management associations with hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius population status

Although strictly protected, populations of the hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius in the UK declined by 72% from 1993 to 2014. Using National Dormouse Monitoring Programme data from 300 sites throughout England and Wales, we investigated variation in hazel dormouse population status (expressed as Indices of Abundance, Breeding, and population Trend) in relation to climate, landscape, habitat, and woodland management. Dormice were more abundant and produced more litters on sites with warmer, sunnier springs, summers, and autumns. Dormouse abundance was also higher on sites with consistently cold local climate in winter. Habitat connectivity, woodland species composition, and active site management were all correlated with greater dormouse abundance and breeding. Abundances were also higher on sites with successional habitats, whereas the abundance of early successional bramble Rubus fruticosus habitat, woodland area, and landscape connectivity were important for population stability. Diversity in the structure of woodlands in Europe has decreased over the last 100 years, and the habitats we found to be associated with more favourable dormouse status have also been in decline. The conservation status of the hazel dormouse, and that of woodland birds and butterflies, may benefit from reinstatement or increased frequency of management practices, such as coppicing and glade management, that maintain successional and diverse habitats within woodland

Climate change refugia for the flora and fauna of England

A variety of evidence suggests that species have, in the past, been able to withstand the effects of climatic change in localised environments known as refugia, where specific environmental conditions acted as a buffer against broader-scale climatic changes. Therefore, an important question for conservation is whether refugia might exist under current and future anthropogenic climate change. If there are areas that are likely to remain relatively climatically stable and so enable species to persist despite climate change making surrounding areas unsuitable, identifying and protecting these places will be an important part of future conservation strategies. This report is part of a project that is investigating this question. The report was commissioned to identify the characteristics of potential refugia, to investigate evidence for the existence of contemporary refugia by analysing patterns of local persistence and disappearance of over 1000 species across a range of taxa, and to identify sites in England with the potential to function as refugia for different taxonomic groups at a range of spatial scales

Conducting robust ecological analyses with climate data

Although the number of studies discerning the impact of climate change on ecological systems continues to increase, there has been relatively little sharing of the lessons learnt when accumulating this evidence. At a recent workshop entitled ‘Using climate data in ecological research’ held at the UK Met Office, ecologists and climate scientists came together to discuss the robust analysis of climate data in ecology. The discussions identified three common pitfalls encountered by ecologists: 1) selection of inappropriate spatial resolutions for analysis; 2) improper use of publically available data or code; and 3) insufficient representation of the uncertainties behind the adopted approach. Here, we discuss how these pitfalls can be avoided, before suggesting ways that both ecology and climate science can move forward. Our main recommendation is that ecologists and climate scientists collaborate more closely, on grant proposals and scientific publications, and informally through online media and workshops. More sharing of data and code (e.g. via online repositories), lessons and guidance would help to reconcile differing approaches to the robust handling of data. We call on ecologists to think critically about which aspects of the climate are relevant to their study system, and to acknowledge and actively explore uncertainty in all types of climate data. And we call on climate scientists to make simple estimates of uncertainty available to the wider research community. Through steps such as these, we will improve our ability to robustly attribute observed ecological changes to climate or other factors, while providing the sort of influential, comprehensive analyses that efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change so urgently require

Linguistic measures of chemical diversity and the "keywords" of molecular collections

Computerized linguistic analyses have proven of immense value in comparing and searching through large text collections ("corpora"), including those deposited on the Internet-indeed, it would nowadays be hard to imagine browsing the Web without, for instance, search algorithms extracting most appropriate keywords from documents. This paper describes how such corpus-linguistic concepts can be extended to chemistry based on characteristic "chemical words" that span more than traditional functional groups and, instead, look at common structural fragments molecules share. Using these words, it is possible to quantify the diversity of chemical collections/databases in new ways and to define molecular "keywords" by which such collections are best characterized and annotated

The performance of Protected Areas for biodiversity under climate change

Global environmental changes have been driving large-scale shifts in the distributions of species and in the composition of biological communities. This has thrown the continuing value of Protected Areas (PAs) into question, given that PAs remain static, whereas species move, and they are predicted to continue to move under future climate scenarios. We consider empirical evidence on the observed performance of PAs during the last 40 years of anthropogenic climate change. Despite some losses of populations and species, PAs have continued to accommodate many species, which have shifted to higher elevations, to polewards-facing aspects, and into cooler microhabitats within PAs as the climate has warmed. Even when species have declined in some PAs, they often remain more abundant inside than outside PAs. Furthermore, losses from some PAs are offset by increases in others. As species expand their ranges polewards across fragmented landscapes in response to climate warming, the majority are disproportionately colonizing PAs as they go. Hence, PA networks are acting as stepping-stones of suitable breeding conditions and facilitating range shifts, with many species remaining protected across PA networks as a whole. Finally, there is some evidence that appropriate management of PAs may be able to slow climate-related declines and accelerate expansions. The 40-year track record of species responding to environmental change in PAs suggests that networks of PAs have been essential to biodiversity conservation and are likely to continue to fulfil this role in the future. The challenge for managers will be to consider the balance between retaining current species and encouraging colonization by new species

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins may constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution