Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming

The existence of fine‐grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed ‘microrefugia’. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine‐grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977–2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long‐term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north‐east‐facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost‐free season varied from +11 to −54 days and the increase in annual growing degree‐days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west‐facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change

Microclimate affects landscape level persistence in the British Lepidoptera

Microclimate has been known to drive variation in the distribution and abundance of insects for some time. Until recently however, quantification of microclimatic effects has been limited by computing constraints and the availability of fine-scale biological data. Here, we tested fine-scale patterns of persistence/extinction in butterflies and moths against two computed indices of microclimate derived from Digital Elevation Models: a summer solar index, representing fine-scale variation in temperature, and a topographic wetness index, representing fine-scale variation in moisture availability. We found evidence of microclimate effects on persistence in each of four 20 × 20 km British landscapes selected for study (the Brecks, the Broads, Dartmoor, and Exmoor). Broadly, local extinctions occurred more frequently in areas with higher minimum or maximum solar radiation input, while responses to wetness varied with landscape context. This negative response to solar radiation is consistent with a response to climatic warming, wherein grid squares with particularly high minimum or maximum insolation values provided an increasingly adverse microclimate as the climate warmed. The variable response to wetness in different landscapes may have reflected spatially variable trends in precipitation. We suggest that locations in the landscape featuring cooler minimum and/or maximum temperatures could act as refugia from climatic warming, and may therefore have a valuable role in adapting conservation to climatic change

Climate change refugia for the flora and fauna of England

A variety of evidence suggests that species have, in the past, been able to withstand the effects of climatic change in localised environments known as refugia, where specific environmental conditions acted as a buffer against broader-scale climatic changes. Therefore, an important question for conservation is whether refugia might exist under current and future anthropogenic climate change. If there are areas that are likely to remain relatively climatically stable and so enable species to persist despite climate change making surrounding areas unsuitable, identifying and protecting these places will be an important part of future conservation strategies. This report is part of a project that is investigating this question. The report was commissioned to identify the characteristics of potential refugia, to investigate evidence for the existence of contemporary refugia by analysing patterns of local persistence and disappearance of over 1000 species across a range of taxa, and to identify sites in England with the potential to function as refugia for different taxonomic groups at a range of spatial scales

Conducting robust ecological analyses with climate data

Although the number of studies discerning the impact of climate change on ecological systems continues to increase, there has been relatively little sharing of the lessons learnt when accumulating this evidence. At a recent workshop entitled ‘Using climate data in ecological research’ held at the UK Met Office, ecologists and climate scientists came together to discuss the robust analysis of climate data in ecology. The discussions identified three common pitfalls encountered by ecologists: 1) selection of inappropriate spatial resolutions for analysis; 2) improper use of publically available data or code; and 3) insufficient representation of the uncertainties behind the adopted approach. Here, we discuss how these pitfalls can be avoided, before suggesting ways that both ecology and climate science can move forward. Our main recommendation is that ecologists and climate scientists collaborate more closely, on grant proposals and scientific publications, and informally through online media and workshops. More sharing of data and code (e.g. via online repositories), lessons and guidance would help to reconcile differing approaches to the robust handling of data. We call on ecologists to think critically about which aspects of the climate are relevant to their study system, and to acknowledge and actively explore uncertainty in all types of climate data. And we call on climate scientists to make simple estimates of uncertainty available to the wider research community. Through steps such as these, we will improve our ability to robustly attribute observed ecological changes to climate or other factors, while providing the sort of influential, comprehensive analyses that efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change so urgently require

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins may constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution

Research priorities for maintaining biodiversity’s contributions to people in Latin America

Maintaining biodiversity is crucial for ensuring human well-being. The authors participated in a workshop held in Palenque, Mexico, in August 2018, that brought together 30 mostly early-career scientists working in different disciplines (natural, social and economic sciences) with the aim of identifying research priorities for studying the contributions of biodiversity to people and how these contributions might be impacted by environmental change. Five main groups of questions emerged: (1) Enhancing the quantity, quality, and availability of biodiversity data; (2) Integrating different knowledge systems; (3) Improved methods for integrating diverse data; (4) Fundamental questions in ecology and evolution; and (5) Multi-level governance across boundaries. We discuss the need for increased capacity building and investment in research programmes to address these challenges

Xenograft models of head and neck cancers

Head and neck cancers are among the most prevalent tumors in the world. Despite advances in the treatment of head and neck tumors, the survival of patients with these cancers has not markedly improved over the past several decades because of our inability to control and our poor understanding of the regional and distant spread of this disease. One of the factors contributing to our poor understanding may be the lack of reliable animal models of head and neck cancer metastasis. The earliest xenograft models in which human tumor cells were grown in immunosuppressed mice involved subcutaneous implantation of human head and neck cancer cell lines. Subcutaneous xenograft models have been popular because they are easy to establish, easy to manage, and lend themselves to ready quantitation of the tumor burden. More recently, orthotopic xenograft models, in which the tumor cells are implanted in the tumor site of origin, have been used with greater frequency in animal studies of head and neck cancers. Orthotopic xenograft models are advantageous for their ability to mimic local tumor growth and recapitulate the pathways of metastasis seen in human head and neck cancers. In addition, recent innovations in cell labeling techniques and small-animal imaging have enabled investigators to monitor the metastatic process and quantitate the growth and spread of orthopically implanted tumors. This review summarizes the progress in the development of murine xenograft models of head and neck cancers. We then discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each type of xenograft model. We also discuss the potential for these models to help elucidate the mechanisms of regional and distant metastasis, which could improve our ability to treat head and neck cancers

A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion, that climate change could pose for over 3,000 plants and animals that occur in England. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors, was applied to 402 species, of which 35 % were at risk of range loss and 42 % may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit. The balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and increasing uncertainty of the future

Spheroid-plug model as a tool to study tumor development, angiogenesis, and heterogeneity in vivo

Subcutaneous injection of the tumor cell suspension is a simple and commonly used tool for studying tumor development in vivo. However, subcutaneous models poorly resemble tumor complexity due to the fast growth not reflecting the natural course. Here, we describe an application of the new spheroid-plug model to combine the simplicity of subcutaneous injection with improved resemblance to natural tumor progression. Spheroid-plug model relies on in vitro formation of tumor spheroids, followed by injection of single tumor spheroid subcutaneously in Matrigel matrix. In spheroid-plug model, tumors grow slower in comparison to tumors formed by injection of cell suspension as assessed by 3D ultrasonography (USG) and in vivo bioluminescence measurements. The slower tumor growth rate in spheroid-plug model is accompanied by reduced necrosis. The spheroid-plug model ensures increased and more stable vascularization of tumor than classical subcutaneous tumor model as demonstrated by 3D USG Power Doppler examination. Flow cytometry analysis showed that tumors formed from spheroids have enhanced infiltration of endothelial cells as well as hematopoietic and progenitor cells with stem cell phenotype (c-Kit+ and Sca-1+). They also contain more tumor cells expressing cancer stem cell marker CXCR4. Here, we show that spheroid-plug model allows investigating efficiency of anticancer drugs. Treatment of spheroid-plug tumors with known antiangiogenic agent axitinib decreased their size and viability. The antiangiogenic activity of axitinib was higher in spheroid-plug model than in classical model. Our results indicate that spheroid-plug model imitates natural tumor growth and can become a valuable tool for cancer research