114 research outputs found
Demand forecasting for a commodity product using system dynamics:modelling trader behaviour, price dynamics, and supply chain dynamics
A Palaeoenvironmental Investigation of Two Prehistoric Burnt Mound Sites in Northern Ireland
Funded by Road services Northern Ireland, Jacobs and Headland ArchaeologyPeer reviewedPostprin
Long-term disturbance dynamics and resilience of tropical peat swamp forests
Summary 1.The coastal peat swamp forests of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, are undergoing rapid conversion, predominantly into oil palm plantations. This wetland ecosystem is assumed to have experienced insignificant disturbance in the past, persisting under a single ecologically-stable regime. However, there is limited knowledge of the past disturbance regime, long-term functioning and fundamentally the resilience of this ecosystem to changing natural and anthropogenic perturbations through time. 2. In this study, long-term ecological data sets from three degraded peatlands in Sarawak were collected to shed light on peat swamp forest dynamics. Fossil pollen and charcoal were counted in each sedimentary sequence to reconstruct vegetation and investigate responses to past environmental disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic. 3. Results demonstrate that peat swamp forest taxa have dominated these vegetation profiles throughout the last c. 2000-year period despite the presence of various drivers of disturbance. Evidence for episodes of climatic variability, predominantly linked to ENSO events, and wildfires is present throughout. However, in the last c. 500 years, burning and indicators of human disturbance have elevated beyond past levels at these sites, concurrent with a reduction in peat swamp forest pollen. 4. Two key insights have been gained through this palaeoecological analysis: (i) peat swamp forest vegetation has demonstrated resilience to disturbance caused by burning and climatic variability in Sarawak in the late Holocene, however (ii) coincident with increased fire combined with human impact c. 500 years ago, these communities started to decline. 5. Synthesis. Sarawak's coastal peat swamps have demonstrated resilience to past natural disturbances, with forest vegetation persisting through episodes of fire and climatic variability. However, palaeoecological data presented here suggest that recent, anthropogenic disturbances are of a greater magnitude, causing the observed decline in the peat swamp forest communities in the last c. 500 years and challenging the ecosystem's persistence. This study greatly extends our knowledge of the ecological functioning of these understudied ecosystems, providing baseline information on the past vegetation and its response to disturbance. This understanding is central to developing management strategies that foster resilience in the remaining peat swamp forests and ensure continued provision of services, namely carbon storage, from this globally important ecosystem.</p
South China Sea surface water evolution over the last 12 Myr: A south-north comparison from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1143 and 1146
Planktonic foraminifera (PF) from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 1143 and 1146 in the southern and northern South China Sea (SCS), respectively, were quantitatively analyzed in order to reconstruct the sea-surface environment over the last 12 Myr. The observed decrease in deep-dwelling PF species after ∼10 Ma at both sites is interpreted to reflect a depression of the upper water thermocline, corresponding to the closure of the Indonesian Seaway around 11-9 Ma. This upper water column structure implies the intensification of equatorial Pacific warm currents and the initial formation of the western Pacific "warm pool" (WPWP) during the early Late Miocene. The consistent pattern of south-north thermocline evolution and the synchronous disappearance of Globoquadrina dehiscens (9.8 Ma) at both Sites 1143 and 1146 together imply that the entire SCS was likely under the influence of the newly developed WPWP at ∼10 Ma. After ∼8 Ma, sea-surface temperatures and thermocline variations evolved differently between the southern and northern SCS. The total deep-dwelling PF fauna at Site 1143 decreased gradually in abundance from 6.6 to 2 Ma, indicating a deepening of the thermocline in the southern SCS. In contrast, deep-dwelling PF species increased in abundance from 3.1 to 2 Ma at Site 1146, reflecting a shoaling of the thermocline in the northern SCS. This south-north contrast reflects two major environmental regimes: (1) the southern SCS, which has mainly been under the influence of the WPWP since the late Late Miocene, and (2) the northern SCS, where effects of the east Asian winter monsoon have prevailed, especially since the Late Pliocene. Estimate of past sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) at Site 1143 suggests a relatively stable and warm environment in the southern SCS since about 2.5 Ma, with an increased influence of warm subsurface waters after the mid-Pleistocene transition (1.2-0.9 Ma). In the northern SCS, however, a gradual decrease in winter SST recorded at Site 1146 over the last 4 Myr records east Asian monsoon evolution, especially the enhancement of the east Asian winter monsoon between 3.1 and 2 Ma. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.Baohua Li, Jiliang Wang, Baoqi Huang, Qianyu Li, Zhimin Jian, Quanhong Zhao, Xin Su and Pinxian Wan
Archaeometric evidence for the earliest exploitation of lignite from the bronze age Eastern Mediterranean
This paper presents the earliest evidence for the exploitation of lignite (brown coal) in Europe and sheds new light on the use of combustion fuel sources in the 2nd millennium BCE Eastern Mediterranean. We applied Thermal Desorption/Pyrolysis-Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry and Polarizing Microscopy to the dental calculus of 67 individuals and we identified clear evidence for combustion markers embedded within this calculus. In contrast to the scant evidence for combustion markers within the calculus samples from Egypt, all other individuals show the inhalation of smoke from fires burning wood identified as Pinaceae, in addition to hardwood, such as oak and olive, and/ or dung. Importantly, individuals from the Palatial Period at the Mycenaean citadel of Tiryns and the Cretan harbour site of Chania also show the inhalation of fire-smoke from lignite, consistent with the chemical signature of sources in the northwestern Peloponnese and Western Crete respectively. This first evidence for lignite exploitation was likely connected to and at the same time enabled Late Bronze Age Aegean metal and pottery production, significantly by both male and female individuals
Vicariance or dispersal? Historical biogeography of three Sunda shelf murine rodents ( Maxomys surifer , Leopoldamys sabanus and Maxomys whiteheadi )
Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75628/1/j.1095-8312.2004.00281.x.pd
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