The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Development, feasibility, and acceptability of an intervention to improve care for agitation in people living in nursing homes with dementia nearing the end-of-life

OBJECTIVES: To develop a staff training intervention for agitation in people with severe dementia, reaching end-of-life, residing in nursing homes (NHs), test feasibility, acceptability, and whether a trial is warranted. DESIGN: Feasibility study with pre- and post-intervention data collection, qualitative interviews, and focus groups. SETTING: Three NHs in South East England with dementia units, diverse in terms of size, ownership status, and location. PARTICIPANTS: Residents with a dementia diagnosis or scoring ≥2 on the Noticeable Problems Checklist, rated as "severe" on Clinical Dementia Rating Scale, family carers, and staff (healthcare assistants and nurses). INTERVENTION: Manualized training, delivered by nonclinical psychology graduates focusing on agitation in severe dementia, underpinned by a palliative care framework. MEASUREMENTS: Main outcomes were feasibility of recruitment, data collection, follow-up, and intervention acceptability. We collected resident, family carer, and staff demographics. Staff provided data on resident's agitation, pain, quality of life, and service receipt. Staff reported their sense of competence in dementia care. Family carers reported on satisfaction with end-of-life care. In qualitative interviews, we explored staff and family carers' views on the intervention. RESULTS: The target three NHs participated: 28 (49%) residents, 53 (74%) staff, and 11 (85%) family carers who were eligible to participate consented. Eight-four percent of staff attended ≥3 sessions, and we achieved 93% follow-up. We were able to complete quantitative interviews. Staff and family carers reported the intervention and delivery were acceptable and helpful. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was feasible and acceptable indicating a larger trial for effectiveness may be warranted

Participatory scenario development for environmental management:A methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands

A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change

The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012

The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high-loss (severe) storms. The best-performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated. Possible reasons for this underestimation include the model failing to simulate strong enough pressure gradients and not representing convective gusts. A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at www.europeanwindstorms.org

Attitudes to routine HIV counselling and testing, and knowledge about prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in eastern Uganda: a cross-sectional survey among antenatal attendees

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV testing rates have exceeded 90% among the pregnant women at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital in Mbale District, eastern Uganda, since the introduction of routine antenatal counselling and testing for HIV in June 2006. However, no documented information was available about opinions of pregnant women in eastern Uganda about this HIV testing approach. We therefore conducted a study to assess attitudes of antenatal attendees towards routine HIV counselling and testing at Mbale Hospital. We also assessed their knowledge about mother to child transmission of HIV and infant feeding options for HIV-infected mothers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was a cross-sectional survey of 388 women, who were attending the antenatal clinic for the first time with their current pregnancy at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital from August to October 2009. Data were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire and analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression. Permission to conduct the study was obtained from the Makerere University College of Health Sciences, the Uganda National Council of Science and Technology, and Mbale Hospital.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority of the antenatal attendees (98.5%, 382/388) had positive attitudes towards routine HIV counselling and testing, and many of them (more than 60%) had correct knowledge of how mother to child transmission of HIV could occur during pregnancy, labour and through breastfeeding, and ways of preventing it. After adjusting for independent variables, having completed secondary school (odds ratio: 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-4.9), having three or more pregnancies (OR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.4-4.5) and belonging to a non-Bagisu ethnic group (OR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0-2.7) were associated with more knowledge of exclusive breastfeeding as one of the measures for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV. Out of 388 antenatal attendees, 386 (99.5%) tested for HIV and 382 (98.5%) received same-day HIV test results.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Routine offer of antenatal HIV counselling and testing is largely acceptable to the pregnant women in eastern Uganda and has enabled most of them to know their HIV status as part of the prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV package of services. Our findings call for further strengthening and scaling up of this HIV testing approach in many more antenatal clinics countrywide in order to maximize its potential benefits to the population.</p

Runaway Events Dominate the Heavy Tail of Citation Distributions

Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers form one of the best-known heavy tail distributions. Even in this case there is a considerable debate whether citation distribution follows the log-normal or power-law fit. The goal of our study is to solve this debate by measuring citation distribution for a very large and homogeneous data. We measured citation distribution for 418,438 Physics papers published in 1980-1989 and cited by 2008. While the log-normal fit deviates too strong from the data, the discrete power-law function with the exponent $\gamma=3.15$ does better and fits 99.955% of the data. However, the extreme tail of the distribution deviates upward even from the power-law fit and exhibits a dramatic "runaway" behavior. The onset of the runaway regime is revealed macroscopically as the paper garners 1000-1500 citations, however the microscopic measurements of autocorrelation in citation rates are able to predict this behavior in advance.Comment: 6 pages, 5 Figure

Watson Brake, A Middle Archaic Mound Complex in Northeast Louisiana

Middle Archaic earthen mound complexes in the lower Mississippi valley are remote antecedents of the famous but much younger Poverty Point earthworks. Watson Brake is the largest and most complex of these early mound sites. Wry extensive coring and stratigraphic studies, aided by 25 radiocarbon dates and six huninescence dates, show that minor earthworks were begun here at ca. 3500 B.C. in association with an oval arrangement of burned rock middens at the edge of a stream terrace. The full extent of the first earthworks is not yet known. Substantial moundraising began ca. 3350 B.C. and continued in stages until some time after 3000 B.C. when the site was abandoned. All 11 mounds and their connecting ridges were occupied between building bursts. Soils,formed on some of these temporary surfaces, while lithics. fire-cracked rock. and,fired clay/loam objects became scattered throughout the mound fills. Faunal and floral remains from a basal midden indicate all-season occupation, supported by broad-spectrum foraging centered on nuts, fish, and deer All the overlying fills are so acidic that organics have not survived. The area enclosed by the mounds was kept clean of debris, suggesting its use as ritual space. The reasons why such elaborate activities first occurred here remain elusive. However some building bursts covary with very well-documented increases in El Nino/Southern Oscillation events. During such rapid increases in ENSO frequencies, rainfall becomes extremely erratic and unpredictable. It may be that early moundraising was a communal response to new stresses of droughts and flooding that created a suddenly more unpredictable food base

Regulation of neutrophil senescence by microRNAs

Neutrophils are rapidly recruited to sites of tissue injury or infection, where they protect against invading pathogens. Neutrophil functions are limited by a process of neutrophil senescence, which renders the cells unable to respond to chemoattractants, carry out respiratory burst, or degranulate. In parallel, aged neutrophils also undergo spontaneous apoptosis, which can be delayed by factors such as GMCSF. This is then followed by their subsequent removal by phagocytic cells such as macrophages, thereby preventing unwanted inflammation and tissue damage. Neutrophils translate mRNA to make new proteins that are important in maintaining functional longevity. We therefore hypothesised that neutrophil functions and lifespan might be regulated by microRNAs expressed within human neutrophils. Total RNA from highly purified neutrophils was prepared and subjected to microarray analysis using the Agilent human miRNA microarray V3. We found human neutrophils expressed a selected repertoire of 148 microRNAs and that 6 of these were significantly upregulated after a period of 4 hours in culture, at a time when the contribution of apoptosis is negligible. A list of predicted targets for these 6 microRNAs was generated from http://mirecords.biolead.org and compared to mRNA species downregulated over time, revealing 83 genes targeted by at least 2 out of the 6 regulated microRNAs. Pathway analysis of genes containing binding sites for these microRNAs identified the following pathways: chemokine and cytokine signalling, Ras pathway, and regulation of the actin cytoskeleton. Our data suggest that microRNAs may play a role in the regulation of neutrophil senescence and further suggest that manipulation of microRNAs might represent an area of future therapeutic interest for the treatment of inflammatory disease