Abrupt change in climate and climate models

First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work

The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research

A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future

The effects of luteinizing hormone ablation/replacement versus steroid ablation/replacement on gene expression in the primate corpus luteum

This study was designed to provide a genome-wide analysis of the effects of luteinizing hormone (LH) versus steroid ablation/replacement on gene expression in the developed corpus luteum (CL) in primates during the menstrual cycle. On Days 9–11 of the luteal phase, female rhesus monkeys were left untreated (control) or received a GnRH antagonist Antide (A), A + LH, A + LH + the 3β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase inhibitor Trilostane (TRL) or A + LH + TRL + a progestin R5020. On Day 12 of the luteal phase, CL were removed and samples of RNA from individual CL were hybridized to Affymetrix™ rhesus macaque total genome microarrays. The greatest number of altered transcripts was associated with the ablation/replacement of LH, while steroid ablation/progestin replacement affected fewer transcripts. Replacement of LH during Antide treatment restored the expression of most transcripts to control levels. Validation of a subset of transcripts revealed that the expression patterns were similar between microarray and real-time PCR. Analyses of protein levels were subsequently determined for two transcripts. This is the first genome-wide analysis of LH and steroid regulation of gene transcription in the developed primate CL. Further analysis of novel transcripts identified in this data set can clarify the relative role for LH and steroids in CL maintenance and luteolysis

Advanced in-duct sorbent injection for SO₂ control. Topical report No. 5, Task 4: Data analysis and computer modeling

The objective of this research project is to develop a second generation in-duct sorbent injection technology as a cost-effective compliance option for the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Specific performance targets are 90% SO{sub 2} removal and 60% sorbent utilization efficiency. After initial results indicated that the Advanced Coolside process had a potential of exceeding these targets, research focused on the Advanced Coolside process. For Task 4, Data Analysis and Computer Modeling, the objective was to develop two computer models. The first computer model would correlate sorbent properties with hydration parameters, while the second would correlate desulfurization performance with the sorbent properties. A two-level factorial program was undertaken to examine the effects of selected hydration process variables on some of the physical and chemical properties of the hydrates produced and on their SO{sub 2} reactivity. A bench-scale hydrator was used to convert quicklime samples to hydrated limes under controlled processing conditions. Two quicklimes were hydrated -- Mississippi Lime and Black River Lime. Significant differences in physical properties of these hydrates were observed. However, no relationship between the measured physical properties and the SO{sub 2} reactivity was observed. Within the scope of this work, SO{sub 2} reactivity is not a function of quicklime source. When compared with commercial hydrates prepared from the same quicklime, the hydrates produced in the bench-scale unit showed significantly lower surface areas and SO{sub 2} reactivities. As a result, the correlations developed in this study do not apply to commercial hydrates

Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by transient perturbations to the hydrological cycle

We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We define a two-dimensional parameters' space descriptive of the hydrology of the system and determine, by considering suitable quasi-static perturbations, a bounded region where multiple equilibria of the system are realized. We then focus on how the response of the system to finite-amplitude surface freshwater forcings depends on their rate of increase. We show that it is possible to define a robust separation between slow and fast regimes of forcing. Such separation is obtained by singling out an estimate of the critical growth rate for the anomalous forcing, which can be related to the characteristic advective time scale of the system.Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Clim. Dy

Advanced in-duct sorbent injection for SO{sub 2} control. Topical report No. 4, Task 3, Optimized advanced process evaluation

The objective of this research project is to develop second- generation duct injection technology as a cost-effective compliance option for the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Specific performance targets are 90% SO{sup 2} removal and 60% sorbent utilization efficiency. Research focused on the Advanced Coolside process, which showed the potential for exceeding these targets. The objective of Subtask 3.1, Performance Testing, was to develop process performance and operability data for design and scale-up of the optimized Advance Coolside process. Results of long-term pilot plant testing with 24 hour/day operation provided a positive indication of process operability. The objective of Subtask 3.2, Waste Characterization, was to determine the chemical and physical properties of the waste materials for designing the waste handling and disposal systems for the process. Test results show that the combined spent sorbent and fly ash waste is suitable for landfilling. Further, the waste management study indicated a potential for by-product utilization for synthetic aggregate production; a more thorough investigation of this potential is required

Mesoscopic structure and social aspects of human mobility

The individual movements of large numbers of people are important in many contexts, from urban planning to disease spreading. Datasets that capture human mobility are now available and many interesting features have been discovered, including the ultra-slow spatial growth of individual mobility. However, the detailed substructures and spatiotemporal flows of mobility - the sets and sequences of visited locations - have not been well studied. We show that individual mobility is dominated by small groups of frequently visited, dynamically close locations, forming primary "habitats" capturing typical daily activity, along with subsidiary habitats representing additional travel. These habitats do not correspond to typical contexts such as home or work. The temporal evolution of mobility within habitats, which constitutes most motion, is universal across habitats and exhibits scaling patterns both distinct from all previous observations and unpredicted by current models. The delay to enter subsidiary habitats is a primary factor in the spatiotemporal growth of human travel. Interestingly, habitats correlate with non-mobility dynamics such as communication activity, implying that habitats may influence processes such as information spreading and revealing new connections between human mobility and social networks.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures (main text); 11 pages, 9 figures, 1 table (supporting information

Canopy bird assemblages are less influenced by habitat age and isolation than understory bird assemblages in Neotropical secondary forest

Secondary forest habitats are increasingly recognized for their potential to conserve biodiversity in the tropics. However, the development of faunal assemblages in secondary forest systems varies according to habitat quality and species‐specific traits. In this study, we predicted that the recovery of bird assemblages is dependent on secondary forest age and level of isolation, the forest stratum examined, and the species’ traits of feeding guild and body mass. This study was undertaken in secondary forests in central Panama; spanning a chronosequence of 60‐, 90‐, and 120‐year‐old forests, and in neighboring old‐growth forest. To give equal attention to all forest strata, we employed a novel method that paired simultaneous surveys in canopy and understory. This survey method provides a more nuanced picture than ground‐based studies, which are biased toward understory assemblages. Bird reassembly varied according to both habitat age and isolation, although it was challenging to separate these effects, as the older sites were also more isolated than the younger sites. In combination, habitat age and isolation impacted understory birds more than canopy‐dwelling birds. Proportions of dietary guilds did not vary with habitat age, but were significantly different between strata. Body mass distributions were similar across forest ages for small‐bodied birds, but older forest supported more large‐bodied birds, probably due to control of poaching at these sites. Canopy assemblages were characterized by higher species richness, and greater variation in both dietary breadth and body mass, relative to understory assemblages. The results highlight that secondary forests may offer critical refugia for many bird species, particularly specialist canopy‐dwellers. However, understory bird species may be less able to adapt to novel and isolated habitats and should be the focus of conservation efforts encouraging bird colonization of secondary forests