WinEcon Fiscal Pathways: A Computer Based Learning Module for the Subject Macroeconomic Theory and Policy

trade reforms, manufacturing performance, Australia

Virus infection and grazing exert counteracting influences on survivorship of native bunchgrass seedlings competing with invasive exotics

1.  Invasive annual grasses introduced by European settlers have largely displaced native grassland vegetation in California and now form dense stands that constrain the establishment of native perennial bunchgrass seedlings. Bunchgrass seedlings face additional pressures from both livestock grazing and barley and cereal yellow dwarf viruses (B/CYDVs), which infect both young and established grasses throughout the state. 2.  Previous work suggested that B/CYDVs could mediate apparent competition between invasive exotic grasses and native bunchgrasses in California. 3.  To investigate the potential significance of virus-mediated mortality for early survivorship of bunchgrass seedlings, we compared the separate and combined effects of virus infection, competition and simulated grazing in a field experiment. We infected two species of young bunchgrasses that show different sensitivity to B/CYDV infection, subjected them to competition with three different densities of exotic annuals crossed with two clipping treatments, and monitored their growth and first-year survivorship. 4.  Although virus infection alone did not reduce first-year survivorship, it halved the survivorship of bunchgrasses competing with exotics. Within an environment in which competition strongly reduces seedling survivorship (as in natural grasslands), virus infection therefore has the power to cause additional seedling mortality and alter patterns of establishment. 5.  Surprisingly, clipping did not reduce bunchgrass survivorship further, but rather doubled it and disproportionately increased survivorship of infected bunchgrasses. 6.  Together with previous work, these findings show that B/CYDVs can be potentially powerful elements influencing species interactions in natural grasslands. 7.  More generally, our findings demonstrate the potential significance of multitrophic interactions in virus ecology. Although sometimes treated collectively as plant ‘predators’, viruses and herbivores may exert influences that are distinctly different, even counteracting

A study on the sensitivities of simulated aerosol optical properties to composition and size distribution using airborne measurements

We present a flexible framework to calculate the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols at a given relative humidity based on their composition and size distribution. The similarity of this framework to climate model parameterisations allows rapid and extensive sensitivity tests of the impact of uncertainties in data or of new measurements on climate relevant aerosol properties. The data collected by the FAAM BAe-146 aircraft during the EUCAARI-LONGREX and VOCALS-REx campaigns have been used in a closure study to analyse the agreement between calculated and measured aerosol optical properties for two very different aerosol types. The agreement achieved for the EUCAARI-LONGREX flights is within the measurement uncertainties for both scattering and absorption. However, there is poor agreement between the calculated and the measured scattering for the VOCALS-REx flights. The high concentration of sulphate, which is a scattering aerosol with no absorption in the visible spectrum, made the absorption measurements during VOCALS-REx unreliable, and thus no closure study was possible for the absorption. The calculated hygroscopic scattering growth factor overestimates the measured values during EUCAARI-LONGREX and VOCALS-REx by ∼30% and ∼20%, respectively. We have also tested the sensitivity of the calculated aerosol optical properties to the uncertainties in the refractive indices, the hygroscopic growth factors and the aerosol size distribution. The largest source of uncertainty in the calculated scattering is the aerosol size distribution (∼35%), followed by the assumed hygroscopic growth factor for organic aerosol (∼15%), while the predominant source of uncertainty in the calculated absorption is the refractive index of organic aerosol (28–60%), although we would expect the refractive index of black carbon to be important for aerosol with a higher black carbon fraction

An updated radiocarbon-based ice margin chronology for the last deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet Complex

The North American Ice Sheet Complex (NAISC; consisting of the Laurentide, Cordilleran and Innuitian ice sheets) was the largest ice mass to repeatedly grow and decay in the Northern Hemisphere during the Quaternary. Understanding its pattern of retreat following the Last Glacial Maximum is critical for studying many facets of the Late Quaternary, including ice sheet behaviour, the evolution of Holocene landscapes, sea level, atmospheric circulation, and the peopling of the Americas. Currently, the most up-to-date and authoritative margin chronology for the entire ice sheet complex is featured in two publications (Geological Survey of Canada Open File 1574 [Dyke et al., 2003]; ‘Quaternary Glaciations – Extent and Chronology, Part II’ [Dyke, 2004]). These often-cited datasets track ice margin recession in 36 time slices spanning 18 ka to 1 ka (all ages in uncalibrated radiocarbon years) using a combination of geomorphology, stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating. However, by virtue of being over 15 years old, the ice margin chronology requires updating to reflect new work and important revisions. This paper updates the aforementioned 36 ice margin maps to reflect new data from regional studies. We also update the original radiocarbon dataset from the 2003/2004 papers with 1541 new ages to reflect work up to and including 2018. A major revision is made to the 18 ka ice margin, where Banks and Eglinton islands (once considered to be glacial refugia) are now shown to be fully glaciated. Our updated 18 ka ice sheet increased in areal extent from 17.81 to 18.37 million km2, which is an increase of 3.1% in spatial coverage of the NAISC at that time. Elsewhere, we also summarize, region-by-region, significant changes to the deglaciation sequence. This paper integrates new information provided by regional experts and radiocarbon data into the deglaciation sequence while maintaining consistency with the original ice margin positions of Dyke et al. (2003) and Dyke (2004) where new information is lacking; this is a pragmatic solution to satisfy the needs of a Quaternary research community that requires up-to-date knowledge of the pattern of ice margin recession of what was once the world’s largest ice mass. The 36 updated isochrones are available in PDF and shapefile format, together with a spreadsheet of the expanded radiocarbon dataset (n = 5195 ages) and estimates of uncertainty for each interval

The burden of unintentional drowning: Global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

__Background:__ Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. __Methods:__ Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. __Results:__ Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. __Conclusions:__ There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low-and middle-income countries

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET

A phase relationship is identified between sequential edge localized modes (ELMs) occurrence times in a set of H-mode tokamak plasmas to the voltage measured in full flux azimuthal loops in the divertor region. We focus on plasmas in the Joint European Torus where a steady H-mode is sustained over several seconds, during which ELMs are observed in the Be II emission at the divertor. The ELMs analysed arise from intrinsic ELMing, in that there is no deliberate intent to control the ELMing process by external means. We use ELM timings derived from the Be II signal to perform direct time domain analysis of the full flux loop VLD2 and VLD3 signals, which provide a high cadence global measurement proportional to the voltage induced by changes in poloidal magnetic flux. Specifically, we examine how the time interval between pairs of successive ELMs is linked to the time-evolving phase of the full flux loop signals. Each ELM produces a clear early pulse in the full flux loop signals, whose peak time is used to condition our analysis. The arrival time of the following ELM, relative to this pulse, is found to fall into one of two categories: (i) prompt ELMs, which are directly paced by the initial response seen in the flux loop signals; and (ii) all other ELMs, which occur after the initial response of the full flux loop signals has decayed in amplitude. The times at which ELMs in category (ii) occur, relative to the first ELM of the pair, are clustered at times when the instantaneous phase of the full flux loop signal is close to its value at the time of the first ELM