Freezing thresholds and cirrus cloud formation mechanisms inferred from in situ measurements of relative humidity

International audienceFactors controlling the distribution of relative humidity above ice saturation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the presence of cirrus clouds are examined with the help of microphysical trajectory simulations using a box model. Our findings are related to results from recent field campaigns and global model studies. We suggest that the relative humidities at which ice crystals form in the atmosphere can be inferred from in situ measurements of water vapor and temperature close to, but outside of, cirrus clouds. The comparison with similar measurements performed inside cirrus clouds provides a clue to freezing mechanisms active in cirrus. The comparison with field data reveals distinct interhemispheric differences in cirrus cloud freezing thresholds. Combining the present findings with recent results addressing the frequency distributions of updraft speeds and cirrus ice crystal number densities (Kärcher and Ström, 2993} provides evidence for the existence of complex heterogeneous freezing mechanisms in cirrus, at least in the polluted northern hemisphere, and further emphasizes the key role of gravity wave-induced dynamical variability in vertical air motion at the mesoscale. The key features of distributions of upper tropospheric relative humidity simulated by a global climate model are shown to be in general agreement with both, microphysical simulations and field observations, delineating a feasible method to include and validate ice supersaturation in other large-scale models of the atmosphere, in particular chemistry-transport and weather forecast models

Simultaneous Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud Properties During the MILAGRO Field Campaign

Estimation of Direct Climate Forcing (DCF) due to aerosols in cloudy areas has historically been a difficult task, mainly because of a lack of appropriate measurements. Recently, passive remote sensing instruments have been developed that have the potential to retrieve both cloud and aerosol properties using polarimetric, multiple view angle, and multi spectral observations, and therefore determine DCF from aerosols above clouds. One such instrument is the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP), an airborne prototype of a sensor on the NASA Glory satellite, which unfortunately failed to reach orbit during its launch in March of 2011. In the spring of 2006, the RSP was deployed on an aircraft based in Veracruz, Mexico, as part of the Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO) field campaign. On 13 March, the RSP over flew an aerosol layer lofted above a low altitude marine stratocumulus cloud close to shore in the Gulf of Mexico. We investigate the feasibility of retrieving aerosol properties over clouds using these data. Our approach is to first determine cloud droplet size distribution using the angular location of the cloud bow and other features in the polarized reflectance. The selected cloud was then used in a multiple scattering radiative transfer model optimization to determine the aerosol optical properties and fine tune the cloud size distribution. In this scene, we were able to retrieve aerosol optical depth, the fine mode aerosol size distribution parameters and the cloud droplet size distribution parameters to a degree of accuracy required for climate modeling. This required assumptions about the aerosol vertical distribution and the optical properties of the coarse aerosol size mode. A sensitivity study was also performed to place this study in the context of future systematic scanning polarimeter observations, which found that the aerosol complex refractive index can also be observed accurately if the aerosol optical depth is larger than roughly 0.8 at a wavelength of (0.555 m)

Trajectory Model Validation Using Newly Developed Altitude-Controlled Balloons During the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformations 2004 Campaign

During the summer of 2004, five altitude-controlled tracking balloons were flown as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformations (ICARTT) campaign. These Controlled Meteorological (CMET) balloons, newly developed at the University of Massachusetts, are notable for their light weight (∼1 kg mass), efficient altitude control, case of launch, long-duration flight capability, and ability to perform repeated quasi-Lagrangian soundings. The balloons were embedded in urban plumes from New York and Boston which they tracked over New England, eastern Canada, and the Atlantic Ocean while maintaining a nearly constant altitude. The flights ranged from 10 to 111 hours and covered a maximum distance of 3000 km. Balloon flight tracks are used here to assess the accuracy of trajectory models during intensive aircraft sampling periods. A new method is presented for increasing the number of available reference trajectories by dividing the balloon flights into shorter segments for statistical analysis. For trajectory durations between 2 and 12 hours, mean trajectory errors are found to be approximately 26% and 34% of the flight distance for ECMWF-based and GFS-based trajectories, respectively. Anomalously large model errors observed during three of the flights are found to be the result of a narrow low-level jet (15 July) and synoptic-scale flow patterns (9 and 10 August). The results from this study should be useful to researchers evaluating the performance of trajectory models and chemical transport models during the ICARTT campaign. Complete CMET balloon and model trajectory data sets are available as a supplement to this paper

Transport Modelling of a pyro-convection event in Alaska

International audienceSummer 2004 saw severe forest fires in Alaska and the Yukon Territory that were mostly triggered by lightning strikes. The area burned (>2.7×106 ha) in the year 2004 was the highest on record to date in Alaska. Pollutant emissions from the fires lead to violation of federal standards for air quality in Fairbanks. This paper studies deep convection events that occurred in the burning regions at the end of June 2004. The convection was likely enhanced by the strong forest fire activity (so-called pyro-convection) and penetrated into the lower stratosphere, up to about 3 km above the tropopause. Emissions from the fires did not only perturb the UT/LS locally, but also regionally. POAM data at the approximate location of Edmonton (53.5° N, 113.5° W) show that the UT/LS aerosol extinction was enhanced by a factor of 4 relative to unperturbed conditions. Simulations with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART with the deep convective transport scheme turned on showed transport of forest fire emissions into the stratosphere, in qualitatively good agreement with the enhancements seen in the POAM data. A corresponding simulation with the deep convection scheme turned off did not result in such deep vertical transport. Lidar measurements at Wisconsin on 30 June also show the presence of substantial aerosol loading in the UT/LS, up to about 13 km. In fact, the FLEXPART results suggest that this aerosol plume originated from the Yukon Territory on 25 June

Forecast, observation and modelling of a deep stratospheric intrusion event over Europe

A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU-project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity) with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT) event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, could be followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one reaching almost a height of 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides <sup>10</sup>Be and <sup>7</sup>Be and their ratio <sup>10</sup>Be/<sup>7</sup>Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures with many details the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October 1999) from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric model is shown to be in very good agreement with the observations during this case study, which provides the first successful validation of a chemical tracer that is used operationally in a weather forecast model. This suggests that coupling chemistry and weather forecast models may significantly improve both weather and chemical forecasts in the future

Arctic smoke - aerosol characteristics during a record smoke event in the European Arctic and its radiative impact

In early May 2006 a record high air pollution event was observed at Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen. An atypical weather pattern established a pathway for the rapid transport of biomass burning aerosols from agricultural fires in Eastern Europe to the Arctic. Atmospheric stability was such that the smoke was constrained to low levels, within 2 km of the surface during the transport. A description of this smoke event in terms of transport and main aerosol characteristics can be found in Stohl et al. (2007). This study puts emphasis on the radiative effect of the smoke. The aerosol number size distribution was characterised by lognormal parameters as having an accumulation mode centered around 165–185 nm and almost 1.6 for geometric standard deviation of the mode. Nucleation and small Aitken mode particles were almost completely suppressed within the smoke plume measured at Ny-Ålesund. Chemical and microphysical aerosol information obtained at Mt. Zeppelin (474 m a.s.l) was used to derive input parameters for a one-dimensional radiation transfer model to explore the radiative effects of the smoke. The daily mean heating rate calculated on 2 May 2006 for the average size distribution and measured chemical composition reached 0.55 K day−1 at 0.5 km altitude for the assumed external mixture of the aerosols but showing much higher heating rates for an internal mixture (1.7 K day−1). In comparison a case study for March 2000 showed that the local climatic effects due to Arctic haze, using a regional climate model, HIRHAM, amounts to a maximum of 0.3 K day−1 of heating at 2 km altitude (Treffeisen et al., 2005)

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder O-3 and CO observations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

International audienceGlobal satellite observations of ozone and carbon monoxide from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the EOS Aura spacecraft are discussed with emphasis on those observations in the 215–100 hPa region (the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere). The precision, resolution and accuracy of the data produced by the MLS “version 2.2” processing algorithms are discussed and quantified. O3 accuracy is estimated at ~40 ppbv +5% (~20 ppbv +20% at 215 hPa) while the CO accuracy is estimated at ~30 ppbv +30% for pressures of 147 hPa and less. Comparisons with expectations and other observations show good agreements for the O3 product, generally consistent with the systematic errors quoted above. In the case of CO, a persistent factor of ~2 high bias is seen at 215 hPa. However, the morphology is shown to be realistic, consistent with raw MLS radiance data, and useful for scientific study. The MLS CO data at higher altitudes are shown to be consistent with other observations

Arctic smoke ? record high air pollution levels in the European Arctic due to agricultural fires in Eastern Europe

International audienceIn spring 2006, the European Arctic was abnormally warm, setting new historical temperature records. During this warm period, smoke from agricultural fires in Eastern Europe intruded into the European Arctic and caused the most severe air pollution episodes ever recorded there. This paper confirms that biomass burning (BB) was indeed the source of the observed air pollution, studies the transport of the smoke into the Arctic, and presents an overview of the observations taken during the episode. Fire detections from the MODIS instruments aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites were used to estimate the BB emissions. The FLEXPART particle dispersion model was used to show that the smoke was transported to Spitsbergen and Iceland, which was confirmed by MODIS retrievals of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and AIRS retrievals of carbon monoxide (CO) total columns. Concentrations of halocarbons, carbon dioxide and CO, as well as levoglucosan and potassium, measured at Zeppelin mountain near Ny Ålesund, were used to further corroborate the BB source of the smoke at Spitsbergen. The ozone (O3) and CO concentrations were the highest ever observed at the Zeppelin station, and gaseous elemental mercury was also enhanced. A new O3 record was also set at a station on Iceland. The smoke was strongly absorbing ? black carbon concentrations were the highest ever recorded at Zeppelin ?, and strongly perturbed the radiation transmission in the atmosphere: aerosol optical depths were the highest ever measured at Ny Ålesund. We furthermore discuss the aerosol chemical composition, obtained from filter samples, as well as the aerosol size distribution during the smoke event. Photographs show that the snow at a glacier on Spitsbergen became discolored during the episode and, thus, the snow albedo was reduced. Samples of this polluted snow contained strongly enhanced levels of potassium, sulphate, nitrate and ammonium ions, thus relating the discoloration to the deposition of the smoke aerosols. This paper shows that, to date, BB has been underestimated as a source of aerosol and air pollution for the Arctic, relative to emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Given its significant impact on air quality over large spatial scales and on radiative processes, the practice of agricultural waste burning should be banned in the future

Design considerations and analysis planning of a phase 2a proof of concept study in rheumatoid arthritis in the presence of possible non-monotonicity

BACKGROUND: It is important to quantify the dose response for a drug in phase 2a clinical trials so the optimal doses can then be selected for subsequent late phase trials. In a phase 2a clinical trial of new lead drug being developed for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a U-shaped dose response curve was observed. In the light of this result further research was undertaken to design an efficient phase 2a proof of concept (PoC) trial for a follow-on compound using the lessons learnt from the lead compound. METHODS: The planned analysis for the Phase 2a trial for GSK123456 was a Bayesian Emax model which assumes the dose-response relationship follows a monotonic sigmoid "S" shaped curve. This model was found to be suboptimal to model the U-shaped dose response observed in the data from this trial and alternatives approaches were needed to be considered for the next compound for which a Normal dynamic linear model (NDLM) is proposed. This paper compares the statistical properties of the Bayesian Emax model and NDLM model and both models are evaluated using simulation in the context of adaptive Phase 2a PoC design under a variety of assumed dose response curves: linear, Emax model, U-shaped model, and flat response. RESULTS: It is shown that the NDLM method is flexible and can handle a wide variety of dose-responses, including monotonic and non-monotonic relationships. In comparison to the NDLM model the Emax model excelled with higher probability of selecting ED90 and smaller average sample size, when the true dose response followed Emax like curve. In addition, the type I error, probability of incorrectly concluding a drug may work when it does not, is inflated with the Bayesian NDLM model in all scenarios which would represent a development risk to pharmaceutical company. The bias, which is the difference between the estimated effect from the Emax and NDLM models and the simulated value, is comparable if the true dose response follows a placebo like curve, an Emax like curve, or log linear shape curve under fixed dose allocation, no adaptive allocation, half adaptive and adaptive scenarios. The bias though is significantly increased for the Emax model if the true dose response follows a U-shaped curve. CONCLUSIONS: In most cases the Bayesian Emax model works effectively and efficiently, with low bias and good probability of success in case of monotonic dose response. However, if there is a belief that the dose response could be non-monotonic then the NDLM is the superior model to assess the dose response