Comparing apples to oranges: Perspectives on satellite-based primary production estimates drawn from a global biogeochemical model

Net primary production (NPP) by microscopic phytoplankton underpins nearly all marine life, yet global NPP estimates differ substantially. Among satellite-based estimates, variation has been attributed to differing assumptions about the relationships between photosynthesis and sea surface temperature (SST). Maximum chlorophyll (Chl)–specific rates of carbon fixation in the water column (PBopt) increase monotonically with SST in some satellite algorithms, whereas others peak at intermediate values. Understanding and constraining such relationships is challenged by the many direct and indirect relationships between temperature and phytoplankton. In this article, the emergent PBopt-SST relationship was diagnosed in a global biogeochemical simulation and compared with widely used satellite NPP algorithms. The simulated PBopt-SST relationship for the aggregated phytoplankton community was highly significant (r2= 0.83) and increased monotonically with temperature. The PBopt-SST relationships for small and large phytoplankton, however, were distinct and weaker than the aggregate relationship (r2 = 0.52 and 0.36, respectively). For small phytoplankton, the inhibitory effect of nutrient limitation in warmer, more stratified waters was moderated by efficient nutrient scavenging. This, combined with photoacclimation and the stimulatory effect of warming on maximum growth produced steep PBopt increases with SST. For large phytoplankton, the need for higher Chl:C in productive regions (because of package effects) and the onset of severe nutrient limitation in warm, stratified regions decreased PBopt relative to small phytoplankton, though PBopt still increased modestly with SST. The PBopt-SST relationships for both small and large phytoplankton overestimated PBopt in nutrient-poor regions and underestimated it in nutrient-rich regions. This bias was greatly reduced in the aggregate relationship because the increased prominence of low-PBopt large phytoplankton in nutrient-rich environments tempered PBopt increases. Results support a strong, monotonically increasing PBopt-SST relationship but emphasize the role of the size structure of the phytoplankton community in shaping the emergent relationship. The implications of these results are discussed in relation to efforts to improve satellite NPP algorithms and partition NPP by phytoplankton size

Magnetic-crystallographic phase diagram of superconducting parent compound Fe1+x_{1+x}Te

hrough neutron diffraction experiments, including spin-polarized measurements, we find a collinear incommensurate spin-density wave with propagation vector $\mathbf k =$ ($0.4481(4) \, \,0 \, \, \frac1 2$) at base temperature in the superconducting parent compound Fe$_{1+x}$Te. This critical concentration of interstitial iron corresponds to $x \approx 12$ and leads crystallographic phase separation at base temperature. The spin-density wave is short-range ordered with a correlation length of 22(3) \AA, and as the ordering temperature is approached its propagation vector decreases linearly in the H-direction and becomes long-range ordered. Upon further populating the interstitial iron site, the spin-density wave gives way to an incommensurate helical ordering with propagation vector $\mathbf k =$ ($0.3855(2) \, \,0 \, \, \frac1 2$) at base temperature. For a sample with $x \approx 9(1)$, we also find an incommensurate spin-density wave that competes with the bicollinear commensurate ordering close to the N\'eel point. The shifting of spectral weight between competing magnetic orderings observed in several samples is supporting evidence for the phase separation being electronic in nature, and hence leads to crystallographic phase separation around the critical interstitial iron concentration of 12%. With results from both powder and single crystal samples, we construct a magnetic-crystallographic phase diagram of Fe$_{1+x}$Te for $ 5% < x <17%

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine : investigations using physical-biological model

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2005.Includes bibliographical references.Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense are annually recurrent in the western Gulf of Maine (WGOM) and pose a serious economic and public health threat. Transitions between and vital rates within the life stages of A. fundyense are influenced by diverse environmental factors, and these biological dynamics combine with energetic physical motions to yield complex bloom patterns. In this thesis, a biological model of the A. fundyense life cycle developed from laboratory and field data is combined with a circulation model to test hypotheses concerning the factors governing A. fundyense blooms in the springs of 1993 and 1994. There is considerable uncertainty with the biological dynamics, and several biological model structures are tested against the 1993 observations. Maximum likelihood theory is used to evaluate the statistical significance of changes in model/data fit between structures. Biological formulations that do not include either nitrogen limitation or mortality overestimate observed cell abundances and are rejected. However, formulations using a wide range of mortality and nitrogen dependence, including the exclusion of one or the other, were able to match observed bloom timing and magnitude and could not be statistically differentiated. These simulations suggest that cysts germinating offshore of Casco Bay provide a plausible source of cells for the blooms, although cell inputs from the eastern Gulf of Maine gain importance late in the spring and in the northeast portion of the study area. Low net growth rates exert a notable yet non- dominant influence on the modeled bloom magnitude. When simulations tuned to 1993 were applied to 1994 the degree of model/data fit is maintained only for those simulations including nitrogen dependence.(cont.) The model suggests that differences in toxicity between the two years result from variability in the wind and its influence on the along and cross-shore transport of cells. Extended simulations generally predict a proliferation of A. fundyense abundance in mid-June within areas of retentive circulation such as Cape Cod Bay. This proliferation is not observed, and better resolution of the losses and limitations acting on A. fundyense is needed at this stage of the bloom.by Charles A. Stock.Ph.D

Simulation and Flight Test Capability for Testing Prototype Sense and Avoid System Elements

NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and The MITRE Corporation (MITRE) have developed, and successfully demonstrated, an integrated simulation-to-flight capability for evaluating sense and avoid (SAA) system elements. This integrated capability consists of a MITRE developed fast-time computer simulation for evaluating SAA algorithms, and a NASA LaRC surrogate unmanned aircraft system (UAS) equipped to support hardware and software in-the-loop evaluation of SAA system elements (e.g., algorithms, sensors, architecture, communications, autonomous systems), concepts, and procedures. The fast-time computer simulation subjects algorithms to simulated flight encounters/ conditions and generates a fitness report that records strengths, weaknesses, and overall performance. Reviewed algorithms (and their fitness report) are then transferred to NASA LaRC where additional (joint) airworthiness evaluations are performed on the candidate SAA system-element configurations, concepts, and/or procedures of interest; software and hardware components are integrated into the Surrogate UAS research systems; and flight safety and mission planning activities are completed. Onboard the Surrogate UAS, candidate SAA system element configurations, concepts, and/or procedures are subjected to flight evaluations and in-flight performance is monitored. The Surrogate UAS, which can be controlled remotely via generic Ground Station uplink or automatically via onboard systems, operates with a NASA Safety Pilot/Pilot in Command onboard to permit safe operations in mixed airspace with manned aircraft. An end-to-end demonstration of a typical application of the capability was performed in non-exclusionary airspace in October 2011; additional research, development, flight testing, and evaluation efforts using this integrated capability are planned throughout fiscal year 2012 and 2013

Group behavior among model bacteria influences particulate carbon remineralization depths

Organic particles sinking from the sunlit surface are oases of food for heterotrophic bacteria living in the deep ocean. Particle-attached bacteria need to solubilize particles, so they produce exoenzymes that cleave bonds to make molecules small enough to be transported through bacterial cell walls. Releasing exoenzymes, which have an energetic cost, to the external environment is risky because there is no guarantee that products of exoenzyme activity, called hydrolysate, will diffuse to the particle-attached bacterium that produced the exoenzymes. Strategies used by particle-attached bacteria to counteract diffusive losses of exoenzymes and hydrolysate are investigated in a water column model. We find that production of exoenzymes by particle-attached bacteria is only energetically worthwhile at high bacterial abundances. Quorum sensing provides the means to determine local abundances, and thus the model results support lab and field studies which found that particle-attached bacteria have the ability to use quorum sensing. Additional model results are that particle-attached bacterial production is sensitive to diffusion of hydrolysate from the particle and is enhanced by as much as 15 times when diffusion of exoenzymes and hydrolysate from particles is reduced by barriers of biofilms and particle-attached bacteria. Bacterial colonization rates and activities on particles in both the euphotic and mesopelagic zones impact remineralization length scales. Shoaling or deepening of the remineralization depth has been shown to exert significant influence on the residence time and concentration of carbon in the atmosphere and ocean. By linking variability in remineralization depths to mechanisms governing bacterial colonization of particles and group coordination of exoenzyme production using a model, we quantitatively connect microscale bacteria-particle interactions to the carbon cycle and provide new insights for future observations

Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales

Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine conditions, and the predictability of tidal cycles. In this study, we test whether skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for up to 35 days into the future by combining an estuarine model of Chesapeake Bay with 35-day atmospheric forecasts from an operational weather model. When compared with both a hindcast simulation from the same estuarine model and with observations, the estuarine forecasts for surface water temperature are skillful up to about 2 weeks into the future, and the forecasts for bottom temperature, surface and bottom salinity, and density stratification are skillful for all or the majority of the forecast period. Bottom oxygen forecasts are skillful when compared to the model hindcast, but not when compared with observations. We also find that skill for all variables in the estuary can be improved by taking the mean of multiple estuarine forecasts driven by an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts. Finally, we examine the forecasts in detail using two case studies of extreme events, and we discuss opportunities for improving the forecast skill

Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Clark, S., Hubbard, K., Ralston, D., McGillicuddy, D., Stock, C., Alexander, M., & Curchitser, E. Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Journal of Marine Systems, 230, (2022): 103737, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2022.103737.Worldwide, warming ocean temperatures have contributed to extreme harmful algal bloom events and shifts in phytoplankton species composition. In 2016 in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia bloom led to the first domoic-acid induced shellfishery closures in the region. Potential links between climate change, warming temperatures, and the GOM Pseudo-nitzschia assemblage, however, remain unexplored. In this study, a global climate change projection previously downscaled to 7-km resolution for the Northwest Atlantic was further refined with a 1–3-km resolution simulation of the GOM to investigate the effects of climate change on HAB dynamics. A 25-year time slice of projected conditions at the end of the 21st century (2073–2097) was compared to a 25-year hindcast of contemporary ocean conditions (1994–2018) and analyzed for changes to GOM inflows, transport, and Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth potential. On average, climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperatures, decreased salinity, and increased stratification in the GOM, with the largest changes occurring in the late summer. Inflows from the Scotian Shelf are projected to increase, and alongshore transport in the Eastern Maine Coastal Current is projected to intensify. Increasing ocean temperatures will likely make P. australis growth conditions less favorable in the southern and western GOM but improve P. australis growth conditions in the eastern GOM, including a later growing season in the fall, and a longer growing season in the spring. Combined, these changes suggest that P. australis blooms in the eastern GOM could intensify in the 21st century, and that the overall Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblage might shift to warmer-adapted species such as P. plurisecta or other Pseudo-nitzschia species that may be introduced.This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number OCE-1840381), the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Grant Number 1P01ES028938), the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, and the Academic Programs Office of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Demersal fish biomass declines with temperature across productive shelf seas

Aim: Theory predicts fish community biomass to decline with increasing temperature due to higher metabolic losses resulting in less efficient energy transfer in warm-water food webs. However, whether these metabolic predictions explain observed macroecological patterns in fish community biomass is virtually unknown. Here, we test these predictions by examining the variation in demersal fish biomass across productive shelf regions. Location: Twenty one continental shelf regions in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific. Time Period: 1980-2015. Methods: We compiled high-resolution bottom trawl survey data of fish biomass containing 166,000 unique tows and corrected biomass for differences in sampling area and trawl gear catchability. We examined whether relationships between net primary production and demersal fish community biomass are mediated by temperature, food-web structure and the level of fishing exploitation, as well as the choice of spatial scale of the analysis. Subsequently, we examined if temperature explains regional changes in fish biomass over time under recent warming. Results: We find that biomass per km2 varies 40-fold across regions and is highest in cold waters and areas with low fishing exploitation. We find no evidence that temperature change has impacted biomass within marine regions over the time period considered. The biomass variation is best explained by an elementary trophodynamic model that accounts for temperature-dependent trophic efficiency. Main Conclusions: Our study supports the hypothesis that temperature is a main driver of large-scale cross-regional variation in fish community biomass. The cross-regional pattern suggests that long-term impacts of warming will be negative on biomass. These results provide an empirical basis for predicting future changes in fish community biomass and its associated services for human wellbeing that is food provisioning, under global climate change