Risk factors for race-day fatality in flat racing Thoroughbreds in Great Britain (2000 to 2013)

A key focus of the racing industry is to reduce the number of race-day events where horses die suddenly or are euthanased due to catastrophic injury. The objective of this study was therefore to determine risk factors for race-day fatalities in Thoroughbred racehorses, using a cohort of all horses participating in flat racing in Great Britain between 2000 and 2013. Horse-, race- and course-level data were collected and combined with all race-day fatalities, recorded by racecourse veterinarians in a central database. Associations between exposure variables and fatality were assessed using logistic regression analyses for (1) all starts in the dataset and (2) starts made on turf surfaces only. There were 806,764 starts in total, of which 548,571 were on turf surfaces. A total of 610 fatalities were recorded; 377 (61.8%) on turf. In both regression models, increased firmness of the going, increasing racing distance, increasing average horse performance, first year of racing and wearing eye cover for the first time all increased the odds of fatality. Generally, the odds of fatality also increased with increasing horse age whereas increasing number of previous starts reduced fatality odds. In the ‘all starts’ model, horses racing in an auction race were at 1.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–2.01) times the odds of fatality compared with horses not racing in this race type. In the turf starts model, horses racing in Group 1 races were at 3.19 (95% CI 1.71–5.93) times the odds of fatality compared with horses not racing in this race type. Identification of novel risk factors including wearing eye cover and race type will help to inform strategies to further reduce the rate of fatality in flat racing horses, enhancing horse and jockey welfare and safety

Stochastic descriptors to study the fate and potential of naive T cell clonotypes in the periphery

The population of naive T cells in the periphery is best described by determining both its T cell receptor diversity, or number of clonotypes, and the sizes of its clonal subsets. In this paper, we make use of a previously introduced mathematical model of naive T cell homeostasis, to study the fate and potential of naive T cell clonotypes in the periphery. This is achieved by the introduction of several new stochastic descriptors for a given naive T cell clonotype, such as its maximum clonal size, the time to reach this maximum, the number of proliferation events required to reach this maximum, the rate of contraction of the clonotype during its way to extinction, as well as the time to a given number of proliferation events. Our results show that two fates can be identified for the dynamics of the clonotype: extinction in the short-term if the clonotype experiences too hostile a peripheral environment, or establishment in the periphery in the long-term. In this second case the probability mass function for the maximum clonal size is bimodal, with one mode near one and the other mode far away from it. Our model also indicates that the fate of a recent thymic emigrant (RTE) during its journey in the periphery has a clear stochastic component, where the probability of extinction cannot be neglected, even in a friendly but competitive environment. On the other hand, a greater deterministic behaviour can be expected in the potential size of the clonotype seeded by the RTE in the long-term, once it escapes extinction

A systematic review of the routine monitoring of growth in children of primary school age to identify growth-related conditions

Objectives: To clarify the role of growth monitoring in primary school children, including obesity, and to examine issues that might impact on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of such programmes. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to July 2005. Experts in the field were also consulted. Review methods: Data extraction and quality assessment were performed on studies meeting the review's inclusion criteria. The performance of growth monitoring to detect disorders of stature and obesity was evaluated against National Screening Committee (NSC) criteria. Results: In the 31 studies that were included in the review, there were no controlled trials of the impact of growth monitoring and no studies of the diagnostic accuracy of different methods for growth monitoring. Analysis of the studies that presented a 'diagnostic yield' of growth monitoring suggested that one-off screening might identify between 1: 545 and 1: 1793 new cases of potentially treatable conditions. Economic modelling suggested that growth monitoring is associated with health improvements [ incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of pound 9500] and indicated that monitoring was cost-effective 100% of the time over the given probability distributions for a willingness to pay threshold of pound 30,000 per QALY. Studies of obesity focused on the performance of body mass index against measures of body fat. A number of issues relating to human resources required for growth monitoring were identified, but data on attitudes to growth monitoring were extremely sparse. Preliminary findings from economic modelling suggested that primary prevention may be the most cost-effective approach to obesity management, but the model incorporated a great deal of uncertainty. Conclusions: This review has indicated the potential utility and cost-effectiveness of growth monitoring in terms of increased detection of stature-related disorders. It has also pointed strongly to the need for further research. Growth monitoring does not currently meet all NSC criteria. However, it is questionable whether some of these criteria can be meaningfully applied to growth monitoring given that short stature is not a disease in itself, but is used as a marker for a range of pathologies and as an indicator of general health status. Identification of effective interventions for the treatment of obesity is likely to be considered a prerequisite to any move from monitoring to a screening programme designed to identify individual overweight and obese children. Similarly, further long-term studies of the predictors of obesity-related co-morbidities in adulthood are warranted. A cluster randomised trial comparing growth monitoring strategies with no growth monitoring in the general population would most reliably determine the clinical effectiveness of growth monitoring. Studies of diagnostic accuracy, alongside evidence of effective treatment strategies, could provide an alternative approach. In this context, careful consideration would need to be given to target conditions and intervention thresholds. Diagnostic accuracy studies would require long-term follow-up of both short and normal children to determine sensitivity and specificity of growth monitoring

Threads and Boundaries: Rethinking the Intellectual History of International Relations

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What does regional studies study? From subnational to supra-national regional spaces or Grossraum of sovereign governance

This article makes a case for expanding the scope of current versions of “regional studies” to include greater emphasis upon transnational regions as of equal if not greater importance compared with an exclusive focus upon sub-national regions. The latter more restrictive approach is typically predicated on the continued centrality of state borders against which the dominant notion of regions as subnational entities is constituted and reiterated. Drawing upon a case study of the African Union our study provides a framework, a critically revised Grossraum theory, for addressing the emergence of a new pluralistic and multipolar world order characterised by supra-national regions and regional organizations. Traditional Schmittian notions of Grossraum are shown to be in need of substantial revision before they are able to adequately accommodate and explain the empirical details of our case study

Perception of Shadows in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

Background: Cast shadows in visual scenes can have profound effects on visual perception. Much as they are informative, they also constitute noise as they are salient features of the visual scene potentially interfering with the processing of other features. Here we asked i) whether individuals with autism can exploit the information conveyed by cast shadows; ii) whether they are especially sensitive to noise aspects of shadows. Methodology/Principal Findings: Twenty high-functioning children with autism and twenty typically developing children were asked to recognize familiar objects while the presence, position, and shape of the cast shadow were systematically manipulated. Analysis of vocal reaction time revealed that whereas typically developing children used information from cast shadows to improve object recognition, in autistic children the presence of cast shadows—either congruent or incongruent—interfered with object recognition. Critically, vocal reaction times were faster when the object was presented without a cast shadow. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that shadow-processing mechanisms are abnormal in autism. As a result, processing shadows becomes costly and cast shadows interfere rather than help object recognition

Re-thinking Regionalism: Europe and East Asia in Comparative Historical Perspective

Regionally-based processes of political and economic integration, security cooperation, and even social identification have become increasingly important and prominent parts of the international system. Nowhere have such processes gone further than in Western Europe. Somewhat surprisingly, similar patterns of regional integration have been steadily developing in East Asia - a region many observers consider unlikely to replicate the European experience. What are the factors that encourage regional political cooperation and economic integration? Are there common forces encouraging such outcomes in very different geographical areas and at very different moments in history? This paper uses an historically grounded comparative approach to examine the historical pre-conditions that underpinned the formation of the European Union, and then contrasts them with the situation in East Asia today. While the overall geopolitical and specific national contexts are very different, the East Asian experience may ultimately generate relationships and structures that are more like the European Union's than some of the sceptics imagine

Population mechanics: A mathematical framework to study T cell homeostasis

Unlike other cell types, T cells do not form spatially arranged tissues, but move independently throughout the body. Accordingly, the number of T cells in the organism does not depend on physical constraints imposed by the shape or size of specific organs. Instead, it is determined by competition for interleukins. From the perspective of classical population dynamics, competition for resources seems to be at odds with the observed high clone diversity, leading to the so-called diversity paradox. In this work we make use of population mechanics, a non-standard theoretical approach to T cell homeostasis that accounts for clone diversity as arising from competition for interleukins. The proposed models show that carrying capacities of T cell populations naturally emerge from the balance between interleukins production and consumption. These models also suggest remarkable functional differences in the maintenance of diversity in naïve and memory pools. In particular, the distribution of memory clones would be biased towards clones activated more recently, or responding to more aggressive pathogenic threats. In contrast, permanence of naïve T cell clones would be determined by their affinity for cognate antigens. From this viewpoint, positive and negative selection can be understood as mechanisms to maximize naïve T cell diversity