The Economic and Electoral Consequences of Austerity Policies in Britain

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between electoral support and the economy over the period 2004 to 2014, paying particular attention to the impact of the economic strategy pursued by the Coalition government in Britain since the general election in May 2010. This involves modelling the relationship between voting intentions, perceptions of economic performance, and a variety of other variables using survey data collected each month from 2004. The evidence shows that when Labour was in office, support for the party was strongly influenced by the state of the economy, as was support for the opposition parties. However, since the Coalition came to power, the relationship between the economy and political support has changed, with neither the Conservatives nor the Liberal Democrats gaining from a fairly rapid growth in economic optimism which has taken place since early 2013. The paper explains this change in terms of a growing perception among the public that none of the major parties can effectively manage Britain?s economic problems. It is also the case that optimism about the national economy has not significantly percolated down to the level of the individual voter. So individuals may be more optimistic about the future of the national economy but they are still being badly affected by the recession

Geomorphic and geological constraints on the active normal faulting of the Gediz (Alaşehir) Graben, Western Turkey.

The Gediz (Alaşehir) Graben is located in the highly tectonically active region of Western Turkey. Extension due to regional geodynamic controls has resulted in a broadly two-phase evolution of the graben; firstly, low-angle normal faulting relating to the exhumation of the Menderes Massif metamorphic core complex took place between 16 - 2.6 Ma. Secondly, high-angle normal faulting initiated ~ 2 Ma forming the Gediz and other E-W trending grabens in the region. Here we quantify the throw rate along the fault array over the last 2.6, 2 and 0.7 Ma using structural and geological constraints, along with analysis of topographic relief as a proxy for footwall uplift. We derive, for the first time, time averaged rates of fault motion from 0.4 mm/yr to 1.3 mm/yr along the strike of the Gediz Graben, with variation in throw-rate associated with the geometry of individual fault strands. Patterns in throw-rate along strike of the graben bounding fault array also suggest that the fault segments have become linked during the last 2.6 - 2 Ma, possibly at 0.8 – 0.7 Ma. Furthermore, these data suggest that an earthquake occurring along the graben bounding fault could have a maximum predicted Mw of 6.3 - 7.6

Normal fault growth and linkage in the Gediz (Alasehir) Graben, Western Turkey, revealed by transient river long-profiles and slope-break knickpoints

The Gediz (Alaşehir) Graben is located in the highly tectonically active and seismogenic region of Western Turkey. The rivers upstream of the normal fault-bounded graben each contain a non-lithologic knickpoint, including those that drain through inferred fault segment boundaries. Knickpoint heights measured vertically from the fault scale with footwall relief and documented fault throw (vertical displacement). Consequently, we deduce these knickpoints were initiated by an increase in slip rate on the basin-bounding fault, driven by linkage of the three main fault segments of the high-angle graben bounding fault array. Fault interaction theory and ratios of channel steepness suggest that the slip rate enhancement factor on linkage was a factor of 3. We combine this information with geomorphic and structural constraints to estimate that linkage took place between 0.6 Ma and 1 Ma. Calculated pre- and post-linkage throw rates are 0.6 and 2 mm/yr respectively. Maximum knickpoint retreat rates upstream of the faults range from 4.5 to 28 mm/yr, faster than for similar catchments upstream of normal faults in the Central Apennines and the Hatay Graben of Turkey, and implying a fluvial landscape response time of 1.6 to 2.7 Myr. We explore the relative controls of drainage area and precipitation on these retreat rates, and conclude that while climate variation and fault throw rate partially explain the variations seen, lithology remains a potentially important but poorly characterised variable

Like Father, Like Son: Justin Trudeau and Valence Voting in Canada's 2015 Federal Election

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this record.Canada’s 2015 federal election was an exiting, as well as a nostalgia provoking, contest. After nine years in office, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the governing Conservatives were defeated by the resurgent Liberals led by Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is the son of Pierre Trudeau, perhaps Canada’s best known prime minister. Analyses of national survey data demonstrate that party leader images—a major component of the “valence politics” model of electoral choice—were important in both cases. Unlike his father, Justin Trudeau was castigated as a “lightweight” and “just not ready.” However, articulating plausible policies to jump-start Canada’s sluggish economy and espousing “sunny ways,” the younger Trudeau was warmly received by many voters. In contrast, Harper’s image of managerial competence was tarnished by bad economic news, and his attempt to refocus the campaign on emotionally charged cultural issues failed. The result was a Liberal majority government and a prime minister named Trudeau

MR-guided focused ultrasound (MRgFUS) is effective for the distinct pattern of uterine fibroids seen in African-American women: data from phase III/IV, non-randomized, multicenter clinical trials

Background: Uterine fibroids are common among women at the reproductive age. Magnetic resonance-guided focused ultrasound surgery (MRgFUS) is a novel and a conservative treatment for symptomatic cases. The aim of the study was to evaluate the efficacy of MRgFUS in African-American (AA) women compared with that in non-African-Americans (non-AA). Methods: A single-armed phase IV study was conducted to establish the efficacy of treatment in AA women. Comparison of patient, fibroid, and treatment characteristics from this trial was compared with that of the previously published phase III trial. Both studies were approved by the IRB of each medical center. Results: Sixty-three AA and 59 non-AA women were treated with MRgFUS. Although AA women had a different pattern of disease, outcomes were similar in both groups. AA patients had a significant higher total number of fibroids compared with non-AA (median 6.0, interquartile range (IQR) 3.0–10.0 vs. 2.0, IQR 1.0–4.0, respectively, p < 0.001), although their total fibroid volume was significantly smaller (median 196.9 cm3, IQR 112.8–415.3 cm3 vs. 394.8 cm3, IQR 189.8–674.4 cm3, respectively, p < 0.001). AA women were younger compared with non-AA (mean ± SD 43.4 ± 5.1 vs. 46.3 ± 4.1 years of age, respectively, p = 0.001) when they presented for treatment. The rate of alternative treatments as well as fibroid-associated symptoms at follow-up time points (3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months, period following MRgFUS treatment) did not differ according to race (p ≥ 0.62). Conclusion: Despite differences in the pattern of fibroid disease, MRgFUS for uterine fibroids has a similar efficacy for AA women compared with non-AA women

General relativistic null-cone evolutions with a high-order scheme

We present a high-order scheme for solving the full non-linear Einstein equations on characteristic null hypersurfaces using the framework established by Bondi and Sachs. This formalism allows asymptotically flat spaces to be represented on a finite, compactified grid, and is thus ideal for far-field studies of gravitational radiation. We have designed an algorithm based on 4th-order radial integration and finite differencing, and a spectral representation of angular components. The scheme can offer significantly more accuracy with relatively low computational cost compared to previous methods as a result of the higher-order discretization. Based on a newly implemented code, we show that the new numerical scheme remains stable and is convergent at the expected order of accuracy.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figure

Gauss-Bonnet Black Holes and Heavy Fermion Metals

We consider charged black holes in Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet Gravity with Lifshitz boundary conditions. We find that this class of models can reproduce the anomalous specific heat of condensed matter systems exhibiting non-Fermi-liquid behaviour at low temperatures. We find that the temperature dependence of the Sommerfeld ratio is sensitive to the choice of Gauss-Bonnet coupling parameter for a given value of the Lifshitz scaling parameter. We propose that this class of models is dual to a class of models of non-Fermi-liquid systems proposed by Castro-Neto et.al.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, pdfLatex; small corrections to figure 10 in this versio

Development of the preterm gut microbiome in twins at risk of necrotising enterocolitis and sepsis

The preterm gut microbiome is a complex dynamic community influenced by genetic and environmental factors and is implicated in the pathogenesis of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) and sepsis. We aimed to explore the longitudinal development of the gut microbiome in preterm twins to determine how shared environmental and genetic factors may influence temporal changes and compared this to the expressed breast milk (EBM) microbiome. Stool samples (n = 173) from 27 infants (12 twin pairs and 1 triplet set) and EBM (n = 18) from 4 mothers were collected longitudinally. All samples underwent PCR-DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) analysis and a selected subset underwent 454 pyrosequencing. Stool and EBM shared a core microbiome dominated by Enterobacteriaceae, Enterococcaceae, and Staphylococcaceae. The gut microbiome showed greater similarity between siblings compared to unrelated individuals. Pyrosequencing revealed a reduction in diversity and increasing dominance of Escherichia sp. preceding NEC that was not observed in the healthy twin. Antibiotic treatment had a substantial effect on the gut microbiome, reducing Escherichia sp. and increasing other Enterobacteriaceae. This study demonstrates related preterm twins share similar gut microbiome development, even within the complex environment of neonatal intensive care. This is likely a result of shared genetic and immunomodulatory factors as well as exposure to the same maternal microbiome during birth, skin contact and exposure to EBM. Environmental factors including antibiotic exposure and feeding are additional significant determinants of community structure, regardless of host genetics

Pharmacists and Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Management

There is ample evidence in the international literature for pharmacist involvement in the prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) conditions in primary care. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses have confirmed the significant clinical benefits of pharmacist interventions for a range of CVD conditions and risk factors. Evidence generated in research studies of Australian community pharmacist involvement in CVD prevention and management is summarised in this article. Commonwealth funding through the Community Pharmacy Agreements has facilitated research to establish the feasibility and effectiveness of new models of primary care involving community pharmacists. Australian community pharmacists have been shown to effect positive clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes in patients with CVD conditions. Improvements in blood pressure, lipid levels, medication adherence and CVD risk have been demonstrated using different study designs. Satisfaction for GPs, pharmacists and consumers has also been reported. Perceived ‘turf’ encroachment, expertise of the pharmacist, space, time and remuneration are challenges to the implementation of disease management services involving community pharmacists