Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. © 2023 the Author(s)

Interactions between Climate and Stand Conditions Predict Pine Mortality during a Bark Beetle Outbreak

In temperate coniferous forests, biotic disturbances such as bark beetle outbreaks can result in widespread tree mortality. The characteristics of individual trees and stands, such as tree diameter and stand density, often influence the probability of tree mortality during a bark beetle outbreak. However, it is unclear if these relationships are mediated by climate. To test this, we assembled tree mortality data for over 3800 ponderosa pine trees from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots measured before and after a mountain pine beetle outbreak in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. Logistic models were used to determine which tree, stand, and climate characteristics were associated with the probability of mortality. Interactions were tested between significant climate variables and significant tree/stand variables. Our analysis revealed that mortality rates were lower in trees with higher live crown ratios. Mortality rates rose in response to increasing tree diameter, stand basal area (both from ponderosa pine and non-ponderosa pine), and elevation. Below 1500 m, the mortality rate was ~1%, while above 1700 m, the rate increased to ~30%. However, the association between elevation and mortality risk was buffered by precipitation, such that relatively moist high-elevation stands experienced less mortality than relatively dry high-elevation stands. Tree diameter, crown ratio, and stand density affected tree mortality independent of precipitation. This study demonstrates that while stand characteristics affect tree susceptibility to bark beetles, these relationships may be mediated by climate. Thus, both site and stand level characteristics should be considered when implementing management treatments to reduce bark beetle susceptibility

Overstory Structure and Surface Cover Dynamics in the Decade Following the Hayman Fire, Colorado

The 2002 Hayman Fire burned with mixed-severity across a 400-ha dry conifer study site in Colorado, USA, where overstory tree and surface cover attributes had been recently measured on 20 0.1-ha permanent plots. We remeasured these plots repeatedly during the first post-fire decade to examine how the attributes changed through time and whether changes were influenced by fire severity. We found that most attributes were temporally dynamic and that fire severity shaped their dynamics. For example, low-severity plots experienced a modest reduction in live overstory density due to both immediate and delayed tree mortality, and no change in live overstory basal area through time; in contrast, high-severity plots experienced an immediate and total loss of live overstory density and basal area. Large snag density in low-severity plots did not vary temporally because snag recruitment balanced snag loss; however, in high-severity plots large snag density increased markedly immediately post-fire and then declined by about half by post-fire year ten as snags fell. Mineral soil cover increased modestly immediately post-fire in low-severity plots and substantially immediately post-fire in high-severity plots, but changed little in ensuing years for either severity class. By incorporating pre-fire and repeatedly-measured post-fire data for a range of severities, our study uniquely contributes to the current understanding of wildfire effects in dry conifer forests and should be of interest to managers, researchers, and others

Interactions of fuel treatments, wildfire severity, and carbon dynamics

Wildfires have been increasing in size and severity over recent decades. Forest managers use fuel treatments, including tree thinning and prescribed burning, to reduce the risk of high-severity fire. The impact of fuel treatments on carbon dynamics is not fully understood; previous research indicates that because carbon is removed during fuel treatments, the net effect may not be a reduction of carbon lost in the case of wildfire. The Rodeo–Chediski Fire, which burned in Arizona in 2002, was one of the largest and most severe wildfires recorded in the southwestern United States. Our objectives were to quantify carbon in three pools (live overstory trees, standing snags, and forest floor debris) across a combination of burn severities and pre-fire treatments, 2 years and 8 years after the Rodeo–Chediski Fire. Treatments included prescribed (Rx) fire, a cut and burn treatment, and no treatment. We sampled 106 plots in 36 sites in our ponderosa pine-dominated study area. We found that treatments strongly influenced fire severity; high- and moderate-severity fire was reduced from 76% in untreated areas to 57% in Rx fire treatments and 38% in cut and burn treatments. Fire severity, year, and severity X year were significant factors affecting carbon in the three different pools across the landscape. Eight years post-fire, high-severity burned areas had only 58% of the total carbon (live + dead) that low-severity areas had, and only 3% of the live carbon. Live carbon increased over time in low-severity sites but decreased over time in high-severity sites. We conclude that fuel treatments can significantly influence fire severity, which in turn influences carbon pools. However, treatments may or may not reduce overall carbon loss from an ecosystem in the event of a wildfire given that treatments remove carbon too. Finally, long-term monitoring is important to gain a more complete understanding of post-fire carbon dynamics

Fire Ecology of Rocky Mountain Forests

Fire is a dominant driver of ecosystem patterns and processes across the Rocky Mountains. This chapter describes fire ecology and fire-related management for the major forest types in the Rocky Mountains. Major forest types included are ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, mixed-conifer, lodgepole pine, spruce-fir, five-needle pines, and aspen. For each forest type we describe historical fire regimes, interactions between fire and other disturbances, departures from historical patterns, and projected future patterns. We explain fire resistance and postfire recovery patterns. We also include projected alterations to fire regimes and ecological implications due to climate change, with common silvicultural and fuel treatment options for restoration and wildfire mitigation. This information provides a comprehensive examination of contemporary fire ecology and management options in the Rocky Mountains, couched in a historical perspective

Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.Open access articleThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Rocky Mountain forests are poised to recover following bark beetle outbreaks but with altered composition

Amplified by warming temperatures and drought, recent outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) have caused extensive tree mortality throughout Europe and North America. Despite their ubiquitous nature and important effects on ecosystems, forest recovery following such disturbances is poorly understood, particularly across regions with varying abiotic conditions and outbreak effects. To better understand post-outbreak recovery across a topographically complex region, we synthesized data from 16 field studies spanning subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. From 1997 to 2019, these forests were heavily affected by outbreaks of three native bark beetle species (Dendroctonus ponderosae, Dendroctonus rufipennis and Dryocoetes confusus). We compared pre- and post-outbreak forest conditions and developed region-wide predictive maps of post-outbreak (1) live basal areas, (2) juvenile densities and (3) height growth rates for the most abundant tree species – aspen (Populus tremuloides), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Beetle-caused tree mortality reduced the average diameter of live trees by 28.4% (5.6 cm), and species dominance was altered on 27.8% of field plots with shifts away from pine and spruce. However, most plots (82.1%) were likely to recover towards pre-outbreak tree densities without additional regeneration. Region-wide maps indicated that fir and aspen, non-host species for bark beetle species with the most severe effects (i.e. Dendroctonus spp.), will benefit from outbreaks through increased compositional dominance. After accounting for individual size, height growth for all conifer species was more rapid in sites with low winter precipitation, high winter temperatures and severe outbreaks. Synthesis. In subalpine forests of the US Rocky Mountains, recent bark beetle outbreaks have reduced tree size and altered species composition. While eventual recovery of the pre-outbreak forest structure is likely in most places, changes in species composition may persist for decades. Still, forest communities following bark beetle outbreaks are widely variable due to differences in pre-outbreak conditions, outbreak severity and abiotic gradients. This regional variability has critical implications for ecosystem services and susceptibility to future disturbances

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration