Increasing vertical mixing to reduce Southern Ocean deep convection in NEMO3.4

Most CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models unrealistically form Antarctic Bottom Water by open ocean deep convection in the Weddell and Ross seas. To identify the mechanisms triggering Southern Ocean deep convection in models, we perform sensitivity experiments on the ocean model NEMO3.4 forced by prescribed atmospheric fluxes. We vary the vertical velocity scale of the Langmuir turbulence, the fraction of turbulent kinetic energy transferred below the mixed layer, and the background diffusivity and run short simulations from 1980. All experiments exhibit deep convection in the Riiser-Larsen Sea in 1987; the origin is a positive sea ice anomaly in 1985, causing a shallow anomaly in mixed layer depth, hence anomalously warm surface waters and subsequent polynya opening. Modifying the vertical mixing impacts both the climatological state and the associated surface anomalies. The experiments with enhanced mixing exhibit colder surface waters and reduced deep convection. The experiments with decreased mixing give warmer surface waters, open larger polynyas causing more saline surface waters and have deep convection across the Weddell Sea until the simulations end. Extended experiments reveal an increase in the Drake Passage transport of 4 Sv each year deep convection occurs, leading to an unrealistically large transport at the end of the simulation. North Atlantic deep convection is not significantly affected by the changes in mixing parameters. As new climate model overflow parameterisations are developed to form Antarctic Bottom Water more realistically, we argue that models would benefit from stopping Southern Ocean deep convection, for example by increasing their vertical mixing

Lamotrigine treatment of aggression in female borderline patients, Part II: an 18-month follow-up

Borderline patients often display pathological aggression. We previously tested lamotrigine, an anti-convulsant, in therapy for aggression in women with borderline personality disorder (BPD) (J Psychopharmacol 2005; 19: 287–291), and found significant changes on most scales of the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI) after eight weeks. To assess the longerterm efficacy of lamotrigine in therapy for aggression in women with BPD, this 18-month follow-up observation was carried out, in which patients (treated with lamotrigine: n = 18; former placebo group: n = 9) were tested every six months. According to the intent-to-treat principle, significant changes on all scales of the STAXI were observed in the lamotrigine-treated subjects. All subjects tolerated lamotrigine relatively well. Lamotrigine appears to be an effective and relatively safe agent in the longer-term treatment of aggression in women with BPD

Estimating population cardinal health state valuation models from individual ordinal (rank) health state preference data

Ranking exercises have routinely been used as warm-up exercises within health state valuation surveys. Very little use has been made of the information obtained in this process. Instead, research has focussed upon the analysis of health state valuation data obtained using the visual analogue scale, standard gamble and time trade off methods. Thurstone’s law of comparative judgement postulates a stable relationship between ordinal and cardinal preferences, based upon the information provided by pairwise choices. McFadden proposed that this relationship could be modelled by estimating conditional logistic regression models where alternatives had been ranked. In this paper we report the estimation of such models for the Health Utilities Index Mark 2 and the SF-6D. The results are compared to the conventional regression models estimated from standard gamble data, and to the observed mean standard gamble health state valuations. For both the HUI2 and the SF-6D, the models estimated using rank data are broadly comparable to the models estimated on standard gamble data and the predictive performance of these models is close to that of the standard gamble models. Our research indicates that rank data has the potential to provide useful insights into community health state preferences. However, important questions remain

Spatiotemporal patterns and agro-ecological risk factors for cutaneous and renal glomerular vasculopathy (Alabama Rot) in dogs in the UK

Seasonal outbreaks of cutaneous and renal glomerular vasculopathy (CRGV) have been reported annually in UK dogs since 2012, yet the aetiology of the disease remains unknown. The objectives of this study were to explore whether any breeds had an increased or decreased risk of being diagnosed with CRGV, and to report on age and sex distributions of CRGV cases occurring in the UK. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare 101 dogs diagnosed with CRGV between November 2012 and May 2017 with a denominator population of 446,453 dogs from the VetCompass database. Two Kennel Club breed groups—hounds (odds ratio (OR) 10.68) and gun dogs (OR 9.69)—had the highest risk of being diagnosed with CRGV compared with terriers, while toy dogs were absent from among CRGV cases. Females were more likely to be diagnosed with CRGV (OR 1.51) as were neutered dogs (OR 3.36). As well as helping veterinarians develop an index of suspicion for the disease, better understanding of the signalment risk factors may assist in the development of causal models for CRGV and help identify the aetiology of the disease

Algebraic geometric methods for the stabilizability and reliability of multivariable and of multimode systems

The extent to which feedback can alter the dynamic characteristics (e.g., instability, oscillations) of a control system, possibly operating in one or more modes (e.g., failure versus nonfailure of one or more components) is examined

Magnetic Anisotropy in Single Crystalline CeAu2_{2}In4_{4}

We have grown the single crystals of LaAu$_{2}$In$_{4}$ and CeAu$_{2}$In$_{4}$ by high temperature solution method and report on the anisotropic magnetic behavior of CeAu$_{2}$In$_{4}$ . The compounds crystallize in an orthorhombic structure with space group \textit {Pnma}. LaAu$_{2}$In$_{4}$ shows a Pauli-paramagnetic behavior. CeAu$_{2}$In$_{4}$ do not order down to 1.8 K. The easy axis of magnetization for CeAu$_{2}$In$_{4}$ is along [010] direction. The magnetization data is analyzed on the basis of crystalline electric field (CEF) model.Comment: 7 figures 4 page

SurF: an innovative framework in biosecurity and animal health surveillance evaluation

Surveillance for biosecurity hazards is being conducted by the New Zealand Competent Authority, the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) to support New Zealand's biosecurity system. Surveillance evaluation should be an integral part of the surveillance life cycle, as it provides a means to identify and correct problems and to sustain and enhance the existing strengths of a surveillance system. The surveillance evaluation Framework (SurF) presented here was developed to provide a generic framework within which the MPI biosecurity surveillance portfolio, and all of its components, can be consistently assessed. SurF is an innovative, cross‐sectoral effort that aims to provide a common umbrella for surveillance evaluation in the animal, plant, environment and aquatic sectors. It supports the conduct of the following four distinct components of an evaluation project: (i) motivation for the evaluation, (ii) scope of the evaluation, (iii) evaluation design and implementation and (iv) reporting and communication of evaluation outputs. Case studies, prepared by MPI subject matter experts, are included in the framework to guide users in their assessment. Three case studies were used in the development of SurF in order to assure practical utility and to confirm usability of SurF across all included sectors. It is anticipated that the structured approach and information provided by SurF will not only be of benefit to MPI but also to other New Zealand stakeholders. Although SurF was developed for internal use by MPI, it could be applied to any surveillance system in New Zealand or elsewhere

Estimating population cardinal health state valuation models from individual ordinal (rank) health state preference data

Ranking exercises have routinely been used as warm-up exercises within health state valuation surveys. Very little use has been made of the information obtained in this process. Instead, research has focussed upon the analysis of health state valuation data obtained using the visual analogue scale, standard gamble and time trade off methods. Thurstone’s law of comparative judgement postulates a stable relationship between ordinal and cardinal preferences, based upon the information provided by pairwise choices. McFadden proposed that this relationship could be modelled by estimating conditional logistic regression models where alternatives had been ranked. In this paper we report the estimation of such models for the Health Utilities Index Mark 2 and the SF-6D. The results are compared to the conventional regression models estimated from standard gamble data, and to the observed mean standard gamble health state valuations. For both the HUI2 and the SF-6D, the models estimated using rank data are broadly comparable to the models estimated on standard gamble data and the predictive performance of these models is close to that of the standard gamble models. Our research indicates that rank data has the potential to provide useful insights into community health state preferences. However, important questions remain.health state valuation; HUI-2; SF-6D