Partially Identifying Treatment Effects with an Application to Covering the Uninsured

We extend the nonparametric literature on partially identified probability distributions and use our analytical results to provide sharp bounds on the impact of universal health insurance on provider visits and medical expenditures. Our approach accounts for uncertainty about the reliability of self-reported insurance status as well as uncertainty created by unknown counterfactuals. We construct health insurance validation data using detailed information from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Imposing relatively weak nonparametric assumptions, we estimate that under universal coverage monthly per capita provider visits and expenditures would rise by less than 8% and 16%, respectively, across the nonelderly population.

Human choriogonadotropin and epoetin alfa in acute ischemic stroke patients (REGENESIS-LED trial).

IntroductionPreclinical studies suggest that growth factors in the early days after stroke improve final outcome. A prior study found three doses of human choriogonadotropin alfa followed by three doses of erythropoietin to be safe after stroke in humans. A proof of concept trial (REGENESIS) was initiated but placed on regulatory hold during review of an erythropoietin neuroprotective trial. Due to financial constraints, the trial was largely moved to India, using lower erythropoietin doses, as the REGENESIS-LED trial.MethodsEntry criteria included National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale 8-20, supratentorial ischemic stroke, and 24-48 h poststroke at start of therapy. Patients were randomized to three QOD doses of subcutaneous human choriogonadotropin alfa followed by three QD doses of intravenous erythropoietin (three escalating dose cohorts, 4000-20,000 IU/dose) vs. placebo. Primary outcomes were safety and neurological recovery.ResultsThe study was halted early by the sponsor after 96 enrollees. There was no significant difference across treatment groups in the proportion of patients experiencing death, serious adverse events, or any adverse event. There was no significant difference in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score change from baseline to Day 90 between placebo and active treatment, whether active cohorts were analyzed together or separately, and no exploratory secondary measure of neurological recovery showed a significant difference between groups.DiscussionAdministration of human choriogonadotropin alfa followed by erythropoietin is safe after a new ischemic stroke. At the doses studied, placebo and active groups did not differ significantly in neurological recovery. Study limitations, such as the use of multiple assessors, differences in rehabilitation care, and being underpowered to show efficacy, are discussed

P-SAMS: a web suite for plant artificial microRNA and synthetic trans-acting small interfering RNA design

[EN] The Plant Small RNA Maker Site (P-SAMS) is a web tool for the simple and automated design of artificial miRNAs (amiRNAs) and synthetic trans-acting small interfering RNAs (syntasiRNAs) for efficient and specific targeted gene silencing in plants. P-SAMS includes two applications, P-SAMS amiRNA Designer and P-SAMS syn-tasiRNA Designer. The navigation through both applications is wizard-assisted, and the job runtime is relatively short. Both applications output the sequence of designed small RNA(s), and the sequence of the two oligonucleotides required for cloning into `B/c¿ compatible vectors.This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health [grant number AI043288 to J.C.C.]; the National Science Foundation [grants numbers MCB-1231726, MCB-1330562 to J.C.C.]; and the United States Department of Agriculture [fellowship number MOW-2012-01361 to N.F.).Fahlgren, N.; Hill, ST.; Carrington, JC.; Carbonell, A. (2016). P-SAMS: a web suite for plant artificial microRNA and synthetic trans-acting small interfering RNA design. Bioinformatics. 32(1):157-158. https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btv534S157158321Ahmed, F., Dai, X., & Zhao, P. X. (2015). Bioinformatics Tools for Achieving Better Gene Silencing in Plants. Plant Gene Silencing, 43-60. doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-2453-0_3Carbonell, A., Takeda, A., Fahlgren, N., Johnson, S. C., Cuperus, J. T., & Carrington, J. C. (2014). New Generation of Artificial MicroRNA and Synthetic Trans-Acting Small Interfering RNA Vectors for Efficient Gene Silencing in Arabidopsis. Plant Physiology, 165(1), 15-29. doi:10.1104/pp.113.234989Carbonell, A., Fahlgren, N., Mitchell, S., Cox, K. L., Reilly, K. C., Mockler, T. C., & Carrington, J. C. (2015). Highly specific gene silencing in a monocot species by artificial micro RNA s derived from chimeric mi RNA precursors. The Plant Journal, 82(6), 1061-1075. doi:10.1111/tpj.12835Fahlgren, N., & Carrington, J. C. (2009). miRNA Target Prediction in Plants. Plant MicroRNAs, 51-57. doi:10.1007/978-1-60327-005-2_4Ossowski, S., Schwab, R., & Weigel, D. (2008). Gene silencing in plants using artificial microRNAs and other small RNAs. The Plant Journal, 53(4), 674-690. doi:10.1111/j.1365-313x.2007.03328.xSchwab, R., Ossowski, S., Riester, M., Warthmann, N., & Weigel, D. (2006). Highly Specific Gene Silencing by Artificial MicroRNAs inArabidopsis. The Plant Cell, 18(5), 1121-1133. doi:10.1105/tpc.105.039834Tiwari, M., Sharma, D., & Trivedi, P. K. (2014). Artificial microRNA mediated gene silencing in plants: progress and perspectives. Plant Molecular Biology, 86(1-2), 1-18. doi:10.1007/s11103-014-0224-7Zhang, Z. J. (2014). Artificial trans-acting small interfering RNA: a tool for plant biology study and crop improvements. Planta, 239(6), 1139-1146. doi:10.1007/s00425-014-2054-

A Comparison of Four Models of Delay Discounting in Humans

The present study compared four prominent models of delay discounting: a one-parameter exponential decay, a one-parameter hyperbola (Mazur, 1987), a two-parameter hyperboloid in which the denominator is raised to a power (Green and Myerson, 2004), and a two-parameter hyperbola in which delay is raised to a power (Rachlin, 2006). Sixty-four college undergraduates made choices between hypothetical monetary rewards, one immediate and one delayed, and the fit of the four models to their data was assessed. All four equations accounted for a large proportion of the variance at both the group and the individual levels, but the exponents of both two-parameter models were significantly less than 1.0 at the group level, and frequently so at the individual level. Taken together, these results strongly suggest that more than one parameter is needed to accurately describe delay discounting by humans. Notably, both the Rachlin and the Green and Myerson models accounted for more than 99% of the variance at the group level and for 96% of the variance in the median individual. Because both models provide such good descriptions of the data, model selection will need to be based on other grounds

Exploring the Effectiveness of a Retreat Method for Extension Staff

The California 4-H Association hosted two retreats to support its members with goals of balancing professional development with intentional relationship building. Evaluations demonstrated that staff found the intentional balance of time spent in unstructured, semi-structured, and structured time offered opportunities to grow professionally while building relationships with peers. Follow-up surveys found that 4-H professionals strengthened their network of peers to rely on in their work. Future work for professional development may benefit from a social capital lens

The impact of two coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the temperature and specific humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer in a climate model

The impact of two different coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the zonally averaged temperature and humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) of a Met Office climate model configuration is assessed. One parameterization is based on a linear coupling between a model prognostic variable, the ice mass mixing ratio, qi, and the integral optical properties. The second is based on the integral optical properties being parameterized as functions of qi and temperature, Tc, where the mass coefficients (i.e. scattering and extinction) are parameterized as nonlinear functions of the ratio between qi and Tc. The cirrus microphysics parameterization is based on a moment estimation parameterization of the particle size distribution (PSD), which relates the mass moment (i.e. second moment if mass is proportional to size raised to the power of 2 ) of the PSD to all other PSD moments through the magnitude of the second moment and Tc. This same microphysics PSD parameterization is applied to calculate the integral optical properties used in both radiation parameterizations and, thus, ensures PSD and mass consistency between the cirrus microphysics and radiation schemes. In this paper, the temperature-non-dependent and temperature-dependent parameterizations are shown to increase and decrease the zonally averaged temperature biases in the TTL by about 1 K, respectively. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is further demonstrated to have a positive impact on the specific humidity biases in the TTL, as well as decreasing the shortwave and longwave biases in the cloudy radiative effect. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is shown to be more consistent with TTL and global radiation observations

Radiolytic Gas-Driven Cryovolcanism in the Outer Solar System

Water ices in surface crusts of Europa, Enceladus, Saturn's main rings, and Kuiper Belt Objects can become heavily oxidized from radiolytic chemical alteration of near-surface water ice by space environment irradiation. Oxidant accumulations and gas production are manifested in part through observed H2O2 on Europa. tentatively also on Enceladus, and found elsewhere in gaseous or condensed phases at moons and rings of Jupiter and Saturn. On subsequent chemical contact in sub-surface environments with significant concentrations of primordially abundant reductants such as NH3 and CH4, oxidants of radiolytic origin can react exothermically to power gas-driven cryovolcanism. The gas-piston effect enormously amplifies the mass flow output in the case of gas formation at basal thermal margins of incompressible fluid reservoirs. Surface irradiation, H2O2 production, NH3 oxidation, and resultant heat, gas, and gas-driven mass flow rates are computed in the fluid reservoir case for selected bodies. At Enceladus the oxidant power inputs are comparable to limits on nonthermal kinetic power for the south polar plumes. Total heat output and plume gas abundance may be accounted for at Enceladus if plume activity is cyclic in high and low "Old Faithful" phases, so that oxidants can accumulate during low activity phases. Interior upwelling of primordially abundant NH3 and CH4 hydrates is assumed to resupply the reductant fuels. Much lower irradiation fluxes on Kuiper Belt Objects require correspondingly larger times for accumulation of oxidants to produce comparable resurfacing, but brightness and surface composition of some objects suggest that such activity may be ongoing