Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials show suboptimal validity of surrogate outcomes for overall survival in advanced colorectal cancer

Comparative StudyMeta-AnalysisReviewValidation StudiesThis is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.OBJECTIVES: To quantify and compare the treatment effects on three surrogate end points, progression-free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), and tumor response rate (TR) vs. overall survival (OS) based on a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of drug interventions in advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched for RCTs of pharmacologic therapies in aCRC between 2003 and 2013. Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded based on a predefined form. Univariate and multivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate pooled summary treatment effects. The ratio of hazard ratios (HRs)/odds ratios (ORs) and difference in medians were used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects on the surrogate end points and OS. Spearman ρ, surrogate threshold effect (STE), and R(2) were also estimated across predefined trial-level covariates. RESULTS: We included 101 RCTs. In univariate and multivariate meta-analyses, we found larger treatment effects for the surrogates than for OS. Compared with OS, treatment effects were on average 13% higher when HRs were measured and 3% to 45% higher when ORs were considered; differences in median PFS/TTP were higher than on OS by an average of 0.5 month. Spearman ρ ranged from 0.39 to 0.80, mean R(2) from 0.06 to 0.65, and STE was 0.8 for HRPFS, 0.64 for HRTTP, or 0.28 for ORTR. The stratified analyses revealed high variability across all strata. CONCLUSION: None of the end points in this study were found to achieve the level of evidence (ie, mean R(2)trial > 0.60) that has been set to select high or excellent correlation levels by common surrogate evaluation tools. Previous surrogacy relationships observed between PFS and TTP vs. OS in selected settings may not apply across other classes or lines of therapy

Sharp Global Bounds for the Hessian on Pseudo-Hermitian Manifolds

We find sharp bounds for the norm inequality on a Pseudo-hermitian manifold, where the L^2 norm of all second derivatives of the function involving horizontal derivatives is controlled by the L^2 norm of the sub-Laplacian. Perturbation allows us to get a-priori bounds for solutions to sub-elliptic PDE in non-divergence form with bounded measurable coefficients. The method of proof is through a Bochner technique. The Heisenberg group is seen to be en extremal manifold for our inequality in the class of manifolds whose Ricci curvature is non-negative.Comment: 13 page

Earthquake risk on the Sunda trench

On 28 March 2005 the Sunda megathrust in Indonesia ruptured again, producing another great earthquake three months after the previous one. The rupture was contiguous with that of the December 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake, and is likely to have been sparked by local stress, although the triggering stresses at its hypocentre were very small — of the order of just 0.1 bar. Calculations show that stresses imposed by the second rupture have brought closer to failure the megathrust immediately to the south, under the Batu and Mentawai islands, and have expanded the area of increased stress on the Sumatra fault. Palaeoseismologic studies show that the Mentawai segment of the Sunda megathrust is well advanced in its seismic cycle and is therefore a good candidate for triggered failure

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force Consensus Proposal: Diagnostic approach to epilepsy in dogs

This article outlines the consensus proposal on diagnosis of epilepsy in dogs by the International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force. The aim of this consensus proposal is to improve consistency in the diagnosis of epilepsy in the clinical and research settings. The diagnostic approach to the patient presenting with a history of suspected epileptic seizures incorporates two fundamental steps: to establish if the events the animal is demonstrating truly represent epileptic seizures and if so, to identify their underlying cause. Differentiation of epileptic seizures from other non-epileptic episodic paroxysmal events can be challenging. Criteria that can be used to make this differentiation are presented in detail and discussed. Criteria for the diagnosis of idiopathic epilepsy (IE) are described in a three-tier system. Tier I confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on a history of two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures occurring at least 24 h apart, age at epileptic seizure onset of between six months and six years, unremarkable inter-ictal physical and neurological examination, and no significant abnormalities on minimum data base blood tests and urinalysis. Tier II confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and unremarkable fasting and post-prandial bile acids, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain (based on an epilepsy-specific brain MRI protocol) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis. Tier III confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and II and identification of electroencephalographic abnormalities characteristic for seizure disorders. The authors recommend performing MRI of the brain and routine CSF analysis, after exclusion of reactive seizures, in dogs with age at epileptic seizure onset 6 years, inter-ictal neurological abnormalities consistent with intracranial neurolocalisation, status epilepticus or cluster seizure at epileptic seizure onset, or a previous presumptive diagnosis of IE and drug-resistance with a single antiepileptic drug titrated to the highest tolerable dose

Significant association between polymorphism of the erythropoietin gene promoter and myelodysplastic syndrome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) may be induced by certain mutagenic environmental or chemotherapeutic toxins; however, the role of susceptibility genes remains unclear. The G/G genotype of the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1617640 in the erythropoietin (<it>EPO</it>) promoter has been shown to be associated with decreased EPO expression. We examined the association of rs1617640 genotype with MDS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We genotyped the EPO rS1617640 SNP in 189 patients with MDS, 257 with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), 106 with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, 97 with chronic lymphocytic leukemia, 353 with chronic myeloid leukemia, and 95 healthy controls.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The G/G genotype was significantly more common in MDS patients (47/187; 25.1%) than in controls (6/95; 6.3%) or in patients with other leukemias (101/813; 12.4%) (all <it>P </it>< 0.001). Individuals with the G/G genotype were more likely than those with other genotypes to have MDS (odd ratio = 4.98; 95% CI = 2.04-12.13). Clinical and follow up data were available for 112 MDS patients and 186 AML patients. There was no correlation between EPO promoter genotype and response to therapy or overall survival in MDS or AML. In the MDS group, the GG genotype was significantly associated with shorter complete remission duration, as compared with the TT genotype (<it>P </it>= 0.03). Time to neutrophils recovery after therapy was significantly longer in MDS patients with the G/G genotype (<it>P </it>= 0.02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These findings suggest a strong association between the rs1617640 G/G genotype and MDS. Further studies are warranted to investigate the utility of screening for this marker in individuals exposed to environmental toxins or chemotherapy.</p

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force consensus report on epilepsy definition, classification and terminology in companion animals

Dogs with epilepsy are among the commonest neurological patients in veterinary practice and therefore have historically attracted much attention with regard to definitions, clinical approach and management. A number of classification proposals for canine epilepsy have been published during the years reflecting always in parts the current proposals coming from the human epilepsy organisation the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). It has however not been possible to gain agreed consensus, “a common language”, for the classification and terminology used between veterinary and human neurologists and neuroscientists, practitioners, neuropharmacologists and neuropathologists. This has led to an unfortunate situation where different veterinary publications and textbook chapters on epilepsy merely reflect individual author preferences with respect to terminology, which can be confusing to the readers and influence the definition and diagnosis of epilepsy in first line practice and research studies. In this document the International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force (IVETF) discusses current understanding of canine epilepsy and presents our 2015 proposal for terminology and classification of epilepsy and epileptic seizures. We propose a classification system which reflects new thoughts from the human ILAE but also roots in former well accepted terminology. We think that this classification system can be used by all stakeholders

Neuromuscular Blockade with Rocuronium Bromide Increases the Tolerance of Acute Normovolemic Anemia in Anesthetized Pigs

Background: The patient's individual anemia tolerance is pivotal when blood transfusions become necessary, but are not feasible for some reason. To date, the effects of neuromuscular blockade (NMB) on anemia tolerance have not been investigated. Methods: 14 anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were randomly assigned to the Roc group (3.78 mg/kg rocuronium bromide followed by continuous infusion of 1 mg/kg/min, n = 7) or to the Sal group (administration of the corresponding volume of normal saline, n = 7). Subsequently, acute normovolemic anemia was induced by simultaneous exchange of whole blood for a 6% hydroxyethyl starch solution (130/0.4) until a sudden decrease of total body O-2 consumption (VO2) indicated a critical limitation of O-2 transport capacity. The Hb concentration quantified at this time point (Hb(crit)) was the primary end-point of the protocol. Secondary endpoints were parameters of hemodynamics, O-2 transport and tissue oxygenation. Results: Hb(crit) was significantly lower in the Roc group (2.4 +/- 0.5 vs. 3.2 +/- 0.7 g/dl) reflecting increased anemia tolerance. NMB with rocuronium bromide reduced skeletal muscular VO2 and total body O-2 extraction rate. As the cardiac index increased simultaneously, total body VO2 only decreased marginally in the Roc group (change of VO2 relative to baseline -1.7 +/- 0.8 vs. 3.2 +/- 1.9% in the Sal group, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Deep NMB with rocuronium bromide increases the tolerance of acute normovolemic anemia. The underlying mechanism most likely involves a reduction of skeletal muscular VO2. During acellular treatment of an acute blood loss, NMB might play an adjuvant role in situations where profound stages of normovolemic anemia have to be tolerated (e.g. bridging an unexpected blood loss until blood products become available for transfusion). Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Base

A randomized phase II trial of mitoxantrone, estramustine and vinorelbine or bcl-2 modulation with 13-cis retinoic acid, interferon and paclitaxel in patients with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer: ECOG 3899

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To test the hypothesis that modulation of Bcl-2 with 13-cis retinoic acid (CRA)/interferon-alpha2b (IFN) with paclitaxel (TAX), or mitoxantrone, estramustine and vinorelbine (MEV) will have clinical activity in men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>70 patients were treated with either MEV (Arm A) in a 3-week cycle or CRA/IFN/TAX with an 8-week cycle (Arm B). Patients were assessed for response, toxicity, quality of life (QOL), and the effect of treatment on Bcl-2 levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The PSA response rates were 50% and 23%, measurable disease response rates (CR+PR) 14% and 15%, and median overall survival 19.4 months and 13.9 months on Arm A and Arm B respectively. Transient grade 4 neutropenia occurred in 18 and 2 patients, and grade 3 to 4 thrombosis in 7 patients and 1 patient in Arm A and Arm B respectively. Patients on Arm B reported a clinically significant decline in QOL between baseline and week 9/10 (.71 s.d.), and a significantly lower level of QOL than Arm A (p = 0.01). As hypothesized, Bcl-2 levels decreased with CRA/IFN therapy only in Arm B (p = 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Treatment with MEV was well tolerated and demonstrated clinical activity in patients with CRPC. Given the adverse effect of CRA/IFN/TAX on QOL, the study of other novel agents that target Bcl-2 family proteins is warranted. The feasibility of measuring Bcl-2 protein in a cooperative group setting is hypothesis generating and supports further study as a marker for Bcl-2 targeted therapy.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><b>Clinical Trials Registration number</b>: CDR0000067865</p