Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the CCSM3 in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that the magnitude of warm extremes largely shifts in accordance with mean shifts in summertime temperatures. In contrast, cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are largely explainable by mean shifts combined with reduced wintertime temperature variability. In addition, changes in the spread and shape of the GEV distributions of cold extremes at inland locations can lead to discernible changes in tail behavior. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In principle, the GEV distribution provides theoretical justification to predict infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence frequency of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series that are of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.Comment: 33 pages, 22 figures, 1 tabl

Growth, pork quality, and excretion characteristics of pigs fed Bt corn or non-transgenic corn

Two experiments (exp. 1 and exp. 2, respectively) were conducted to compare performance, pork quality, and excretion characteristics of pigs fed diets containing Bt 11 (Bt) or control corn (C: non-transgenic inbred lines for exp. 1, and a non-transgenic isoline for exp. 2). Experiment 1 involved barrows and gilts (total n = 64; initial BW = 64 kg and 60 kg), while in exp. 2, 120 barrows were used (initial BW = 17 kg). Pigs were allocated to pens, blocked by sex and BW. Isocaloric, isolysinic diets contained an indigestible marker in exp. 1. Feed disappearance and weight gain data, and excreta samples were collected weekly in exp. 1. Feed disappearance and weight gain data were collected weekly in exp. 2. No difference in ADG was observed, however, feed efficiency was greater for pigs fed the C diet. No corn effects were observed for hot carcass weight, loin eye area, or backfat depth. Hunter color ‘b’ values and values for chroma were significantly greater for pigs fed C diets (P = 0.02, \u3c 0.01, respectively) in exp. 1. In contrast, Hunter color ‘b’ values were significantly lower for pigs fed C diets (P = 0.05) in exp. 2. No corn effects were observed for proximate analyses of meat samples, N or P content of fecal and urine samples, nor N digestibility. Pigs fed C diets had greater apparent P digestibility (57.8% vs. 40.2%; P \u3c 0.0001)

Vorbereitungen zur Validierung einer neuen Methode (MUNIX) zur Abschätzung motorischer Einheiten

Einleitung: Ziel dieser Studie ist die Untersuchung einer neuen nicht-invasiven neurophysiologischen Methode (Motor unit number index – MUNIX), welche dazu dient, die Anzahl motorischer Einheiten (ME) in einem Muskel zu erfassen. Verglichen mit etablierten Methoden (engl. MUNE: Motor unit number estimation) ist MUNIX sehr viel schneller durchzuführen, stellt also eine deutlich geringere Belastung für den Patienten dar. Auch ist eine geringere Untersucherabhängigkeit zu erwarten. Dies würde einen erheblichen Fortschritt für die Diagnostik und die Evaluation möglicher Therapien der Amyotrophen Lateralsklerose (ALS) bedeuten. Zur Validierung wird MUNIX mit etablierten Methoden – der Incremental-Methode (Inc) am M.abductor digiti minimi (ADM) und der Spike-triggered averaging-Methode (STA) am M.trapezius (TRA) – verglichen. Der TRA wird gewählt um zu untersuchen, ob MUNIX auch an einem hirnnervenversorgten Muskel anwendbar ist. Methoden: Alle MUNE-Verfahren dienen zur Abschätzung der Anzahl intakter ME und basieren auf derselben Annahme: Ein Summenaktionspotenzial setzt sich aus der Summe aller Einzelpotenziale zusammen. MUNIX hingegen basiert auf einem mathematischen Modell, welches das muskuläre Summenaktionspotenzial nach supramaximaler elektrischer Reizung (MSAP) und das elektromyographische Interferenzmuster der Oberflächenableitung verrechnet. MUNE-Methoden - hier STA und Inc – beanspruchen eine Untersuchungszeit von mind. 20 min/Muskel, wohingegen man MUNIX schon nach etwa 5 min erlangt. Zur Ableitung der Muskelpotenziale wurden Nadelelektroden (STA) und Oberflächenelektroden (STA, Inc, MUNIX) verwendet. Untersucht wurde ein gesundes Probandenkollektiv (n=21) und ein Patienten-kollektiv (n=14). Die Probanden wurden beidseits am TRA und am ADM untersucht. In dieser Gruppe lag das mediane Alter bei 24 (Spannweite 21-31) und sie bestand aus 14 Frauen und 7 Männern. Die Gruppe der ALS-Patienten setzt sich aus 5 Frauen und 9 Männern mit einem medianen Alter von 50 (Spannweite 27-68) zusammen. Elf der Patienten wurden am ADM zu mehreren Zeitpunkten untersucht. Ergebnisse: An beiden Muskeln besteht zwischen den Untersuchungs-ergebnissen der MUNE-Technik und den MUNIX-Werten eine signifikante Korrelation (Spearman), wobei am TRA die Untersuchungen an Patienten noch nicht abgeschlossen sind. An 7 Muskeln konnte kein MUNIX-Wert ermittelt werden. Bei diesen Muskeln lag die Amplitude der MSAP unter 0,5 mV. Diskussion: Mit den Ergebnissen konnte gezeigt werden, dass die MUNIX-Methode am ADM ebenso anwendbar ist wie die etablierten MUNE-Verfahren. Sie wäre folglich im klinischen Alltag einsetzbar. Es müsste jedoch noch eine Lösung dafür gefunden werden, dass die Methode bei Patienten mit einer sehr niedrigen Anzahl motorischer Einheiten versagt. Wichtig ist, dass MUNIX wohl auch am M. trapezius – einem bis dato mit MUNIX noch nicht untersuchten Muskel – anwendbar ist. Im Rahmen der Evaluation zukünftiger Therapieansätze der ALS wäre dort ein Anstieg der Anzahl der ME früher feststellbar als an weiter peripher liegenden Muskeln, wie dem ADM

Patient-reported outcomes after initial conservative fracture treatment in primary healthcare – a survey study

Background Primary healthcare in Norway has first-line responsibility for medical emergencies, including traumas and fractures. Normally, patients with suspected fractures are referred to specialist care. However, some municipalities have X-ray facilities and handle minor fractures locally. We investigated patient-reported outcome measures after initial treatment of radiologically diagnosed fractures of the wrist, collarbone, and ankle at a primary healthcare centre in a rural municipality with a large ski resort. The patients’ general satisfaction with the treatment was also investigated. Methods Validated questionnaires were sent to patients with fractures of the wrist or collarbone (Quick DASH—Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand) or the ankle (FAOS -The Foot and Ankle Outcome Score). Patients with wrist and collarbone fractures also answered the Quality-of-life questions that are a subscale of the FAOS questionnaire for ankle fractures. Patient satisfaction was measured for all fracture groups. The Quick DASH scale ranges from 0 (no disability at all) to 100 (great disability), while for FAOS a score of 100 indicates no symptoms and 0 indicates extreme disabilities. Results A total of 148 of 238 patients answered the questionnaire (62% response rate). Patients with distal radius fractures had a mean Quick DASH score of 5.1 (median 0, range 0–77), and scores were significantly lower for males (p = 0.013) and increased with age (p = 0.024). Patients with collarbone fractures had a mean Quick DASH score of 2.1 (median 0, range 0–32) with no significant age or gender differences. Patients with ankle fractures had the following mean subscale-scores: Pain, 93.8; Symptoms, 71.4; Activities of daily living, 97.4; Sport, 90.0; and Quality of life, 92.1. The scores did not differ significantly by specialization of the physician. A total of 88% of the patients were highly or very highly satisfied with the handling of their fracture. Conclusions The patients reported low rates of functional disability and high rates of satisfaction after initial radiological diagnosis and treatment of their fracture at the primary healthcare centre. Specialisation of the treating physician was not associated with the outcome in any of the fracture types.Patient-reported outcomes after initial conservative fracture treatment in primary healthcare – a survey studypublishedVersio

Expression of Interleukin-1 and Interleukin-1 Receptors Type 1 and Type 2 in Hodgkin Lymphoma

Signaling through the IL-1-receptor type 1 (IL-1R1), IL-1 is required for initiation and maintenance of diverse activities of the immune system. A second receptor, IL-1R2, blocks IL-1 signal transduction. We studied expression of IL-1beta, IL-1R1, and IL-1R2 in 17 Hodgkin lymphomas (HL) by in situ hybridization (ISH). IL-1beta expressing cells, morphologically consistent with endothelial cells and fibroblasts, occurred in all HL tissues with elevated transcript levels in areas of active fibrosis. Hodgkin and Reed-Sternberg (HRS) cells of all cases expressed low IL-1R1 transcript levels in some tumor cells, and high levels of IL-1R2 in large proportions of HRS cells. Only few bystander cells showed low levels of IL-1R1 and IL-1R2 RNA. Supernatants of 4 out of 7 HL-derived cell lines contained soluble IL-1R2 protein at high levels. HL patient sera carried variably amounts of IL-1R2 protein with significantly increased titers in patients with active disease compared to patients in complete remission and control individuals without HL. Western blots and co-immunoprecipitations showed binding of the IL-1R2 to the intracellular IL-1R-accessory protein (IL-1IRAcP). These data suggest functions of the IL-1R2 as a „decoy-receptor” sequestrating paracrine IL-1 extracellularly and intracellularly by engaging IL-1IRAcP, thus depriving IL1-R1 molecules of their extracellular and intracellular ligands. Expression of IL1-R2 by HRS cells seems to contribute to local and systemic modulation of immune function in HL

Læreryrket: utfordrende og belastende

Artiklene i Samfunnsspeilet er tilgjengelige fra SSBs nettsider: http://www.ssb.no/ssp/Samarbeidsklimaet i skolen er dårligere enn generelt på andre arbeidsplasser. Lærere er mer utsatt for vold eller trusler om vold og de opplever i større grad enn andre arbeidet som en psykisk påkjenning. Også lønnsnivået skaper større misnøye blant lærere enn blant andre yrkesaktive. Det lærerne er mer fornøyd med enn gjennomsnittet, er selvbestemmelsen og variasjonen i jobben

Lærernes arbeidsmiljø i 1990-årene

I denne rapporten legger Statistisk sentralbyrå fram hovedresultatene om lærernes arbeidsmiljø fra Arbeidsmiljøundersøkelsene i 1989 og 1993 og levekårsundersøkelsene fra 1996 og 2000. Fokus i rapporten er utviklingen av lærernes arbeidsmiljø over tid. Har arbeidsmiljøet blitt bedre eller verre, og på hvilke områder? Eller preges lærernes arbeidsmiljø av stabilitet? Prosjektstøtte: Undersøkelsen er utført på oppdrag fra Kirke- utdannings- og forskningsdepartementet (KUF), i samarbeid med Lærerforbundet, Norsk Lærerlag og Kommunenes sentralforbund