Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years

Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). Our results showed that (i) climate and land use change will continue to pose significant threats to biodiversity and some ecosystem services, even in the most optimistic scenario; (ii) none of the four scenarios achieved overall preservation of BES in Europe; and (iii) targeted policies (e.g. on climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management) and behavioural change (e.g. reducing meat consumption, water-saving behaviour) reduced the magnitude of BES loss. These findings stress the necessity of more ambitious policies and actions if BES in Europe are to be safeguarded. We further found that the multi-modelling approach was critical to account for complementary BES dimensions and highlighted different sources of uncertainties (e.g. related to land use allocation, driving forces behind BES changes, trade assumptions), which facilitated nuanced and contextualised insights with respect to possible BES futures

Drivers and patterns of land biosphere carbon balance reversal

The carbon balance of the land biosphere is the result of complex interactions between land, atmosphere and oceans, including climatic change, carbon dioxide fertilization and land-use change. While the land biosphere currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, this carbon balance might be reversed under climate and land-use change (‘carbon balance reversal’). A carbon balance reversal would render climate mitigation much more difficult, as net negative emissions would be needed to even stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We investigate the robustness of the land biosphere carbon sink under different socio-economic pathways by systematically varying climate sensitivity, spatial patterns of climate change and resulting land-use changes. For this, we employ a modelling framework designed to account for all relevant feedback mechanisms by coupling the integrated assessment model IMAGE with the process-based dynamic vegetation, hydrology and crop growth model LPJmL. We find that carbon balance reversal can occur under a broad range of forcings and is connected to changes in tree cover and soil carbon mainly in northern latitudes. These changes are largely a consequence of vegetation responses to varying climate and only partially of land-use change and the rate of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change as deduced from different climate models, substantially determine how much pressure in terms of global warming and land-use change the land biosphere will tolerate before the carbon balance is reversed. A reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance can occur as early as 2030, although at very low probability, and should be considered in the design of so-called peak-and-decline strategies.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Peer Reviewe

Science-based GHG emissions targets for agriculture and forestry commodities

Publisher PD

Global Transition Rules for Translating Land-use Change (LUH2) To Land-cover Change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Information on historical land-cover change is important for understanding human impacts on the environment. Over the last decade, global models have characterized historical land-use changes, but few have been able to relate these changes with corresponding changes in land-cover. Utilizing the latest global land-use change data, we make several assumptions about the relationship between land-use and land-cover change, and evaluate each scenario with remote sensing data to identify optimal fit. The resulting transition rule can guide the incorporation of land-cover information within earth system models

Процеси сучасної інтернаціоналізації в Азійсько-Тихоокеанському регіоні у вимірах глобальної конкуренції

In 2012, governments worldwide renewed their commitments to a more sustainable development that would eradicate poverty, halt climate change and conserve ecosystems, and initiated a process to create a long-term vision by formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although progress in achieving a more sustainable development has been made in some areas, overall, actions have not been able to bend the trend in critical areas (including those related to the so-called food-water-energy nexus). Here, we analyze how different combinations of technological measures and behavioral changes could contribute to achieving a set of sustainability objectives, taking into account the interlinkages between them. The objectives include eradicating hunger, providing universal access to modern energy, preventing dangerous climate change, conserving biodiversity and controlling air pollution. The analysis identifies different pathways that achieve these objectives simultaneously, but they all require substantial transformations in the energy and food systems, that go far beyond historic progress and currently formulated policies. The analysis also shows synergies and trade-offs between achieving the different objectives, concluding that achieving them requires a comprehensive approach. The scenario analysis does not point at a fundamental trade-off between the objectives related to poverty eradication and those related to environmental sustainability. The different pathways of achieving the set of long-term objectives and their implications for short-term action can contribute to building a comprehensive strategy to meet the SDGs by proposing near-term actions

Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains

Most climate change mitigation scenarios that are consistent with the 1.5–2 °C target rely on a large-scale contribution from biomass, including advanced (second-generation) biofuels. However, land-based biofuel production has been associated with substantial land-use change emissions. Previous studies show a wide range of emission factors, often hiding the influence of spatial heterogeneity. Here we introduce a spatially explicit method for assessing the supply of advanced biofuels at different emission factors and present the results as emission curves. Dedicated crops grown on grasslands, savannahs and abandoned agricultural lands could provide 30 EJBiofuel yr−1 with emission factors less than 40 kg of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions per GJBiofuel (for an 85-year time horizon). This increases to 100 EJBiofuel yr−1 for emission factors less than 60 kgCO2e GJBiofuel −1. While these results are uncertain and depend on model assumptions (including time horizon, spatial resolution, technology assumptions and so on), emission curves improve our understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for spatial heterogeneity

Cтруктурні, оптичні і термоелектричні властивості плівок та наночастинок ZnO, CZTS, CZTSe для фото- і термоперетворювачів

Дисертаційна робота присвячена оптимізації основних фотоелектричних характеристик, а саме квантового виходу (Q), густини струму короткого замикання (Jsc), ефективності (η) плівкових ФЕП на основі ГП n-CdS(ZnSe, ZnS)/p-(CZTS, CdTe) із струмознімальними контактами n-ITO(ZnO); дослідженню морфологічних особливостей, структурних, субструктурних, оптичних, термоелектричних властивостей та елементного складу плівок ZnO, CZTS, нанесених методом пульсуючого спрей піролізу, для використання у ФЕП та наноструктурованого матеріалу на основі НЧ CZTSe, синтезованих колоїдним методом, для застосування у ТЕП, що можуть працювати паралельно з ФЕП. Встановлені взаємозв’язки між фізико- та хіміко-технологічними умовами нанесення плівок та синтезу НЧ, наноструктурованого матеріалу на їх основі, та структурними, субструктурними, оптичними, термоелектричними властивостями, елементним складом будуть використані для подальшого створення ФЕП та ТЕП з покращеними характеристиками.Диссертационная работа посвящена оптимизации основных фотоэлектрических характеристик, а именно квантового выхода (Q), плотности тока короткого замыкания (Jsc), эфективности (η) плёночных ФЭП на основе ГП n-CdS(ZnSe, ZnS)/p-(CZTS, CdTe) с токособирающими контактами ITO(ZnO); исследованию морфологических особенностей, структурных, субструктурных, оптических, термоэлектрических свойств и элементного состава плёнок ZnO, CZTS, нанесённых методом пульсирующего спрей-пиролиза, для применения у вышеуказанных ФЭП и наноструктурированного материала на основе НЧ CZTSe, синтезированных колоидальным методом, для использования у ТЭП, которые могут работать паралельно с ФЭП. Установленные взаимосвязи между физико- и химико-технологическими условиями нанесения плёнок, синтеза НЧ, наноструктурированного материала на их основе, и структурными, субструктурными, оптическими, термоэлектрическими свойствами, элементным составом будут использованы для создания ФЭП и ТЭП с улучшенными характеристиками.PhD thesis is devoted both to the optimization of basic photoelectric characteristics (quantum yield (Q), density of short circuit current (Jsc), efficiency (η)) of solar cells based on n-CdS(ZnSe, ZnS)/p-(CZTS, CdTe) heterojunctions with n-ITO(ZnO) frontal contacts, and to the investigation of morphological, structural, substructural, optical, thermoelectric properties and chemical composition of: (I) ZnO, CZTS films deposited by spray pyrolysis for application in solar cells; (II) nanostructured materials based on CZTSe nanocrystals synthesized by colloidal method for application in thermoelectric devices which can work simultaneously with solar cells. In the work, modeling approbation was performed by means of investigating the effect of optical and recombination losses on Q, Jsc, η of solar cells based on n-CdS(ZnS)/p-CdTe heterojunctions. Afterwards, the investigation of these losses on the photoelectric characteristics of solar cells based on n-CdS(ZnSe, ZnS)/p-CZTS heterojunctions with n-ITO(ZnO) frontal contacts was carried out with the help of the approbated procedure. Taking into account the results of mathematical modeling, the solar cells based on ZnO frontal contact and CZTS absorber layer were considered. For this purpose, the automated setup for the deposition of ZnO and CZTS films by pulsed spray pyrolysis technique was developed. The in-depth investigation of influence of the main growth conditions of layers’ deposition (substrate temperature (Ts), volume of initial precursor (Vs)) on structural (grains size, phase composition, texture quality, lattice parameters), substructural (coherent scattering domain sizes, level of microdeformations and microstresses, density of dislocations at the boundaries and in the volume of subgrains), optical (transmission coefficients, absorbance, band gap) properties and chemical composition of ZnO, CZTS films, as well as the determination of optimal conditions to obtain the specified films were carried out. Since the solar cells operate at the elevated temperatures, it was proposed to use the additional thermal energy by means of its conversion into electrical energy by use of the thermoelectric devices. For this purpose, the nanostructured thermoelectric material based on CZTSe nanocrystals synthesized by the colloidal method was obtained. The influence of kinetic conditions, namely type of phosphonic acid, on morphological (size, shape), structural (phase composition), optical (absorbance, band gap) properties and chemical composition of CZTSe nanocrystals was determined. The influence of chemical composition on the main thermoelectric properties (concentration (p) and mobility ( u ) of majority charge carriers, relative electrical conductivity ( k ), Seebeck coefficient (SZ)) of nanostructured material based on CZTSe nanocrystals was investigated. The established correlations between the film, nanocrystals growth conditions and structural, substructural, optical, thermoelectric properties, chemical composition will be applied for further development of solar cells and thermoelectric devices with the enhanced characteristics