Doubling: Nick Leeson's trading strategy

This paper examines the trading strategy attributed to Mr. Nicholas Leeson, who was the chief derivatives trader of Barings bank in Singapore. His activities were the main cause of the eventual collapse of Barings bank. Daily information is available for the full period Leeson was active in Singapore, from January 1992 until 1995, for all relevant products. The information includes daily volume, open interest, opening, closing, highest and lowest price. The empirical evidence suggests that Leeson followed a doubling strategy: he continuously doubled his position as prices were falling

Social Interactions and Crime Revisited: An Investigation Using Individual Offender Data in Dutch Neighborhoods

Using data on the age, sex, ethnicity and criminal involvement of 14.3 million residents aged 10-89 residing in 4,007 neighborhoods in the Netherlands, this article tests whether an individual's decision whether or not to be involved in crime is affected by the number of criminals in the neighborhood. Controlling for unobserved neighborhood heterogeneity and endogeneity of this decision, a small positive effect is found on violent crime, but not on property crime. The results suggest that individual characteristics and other neighborhood characteristics play a much greater role in an individual's decision to be involved in crime

До проблеми вивчення весілля Шевченкового краю (за матеріалами передвесільної обрядовості)

While businesses may attract potential offenders and thus be conducive to disorder, the number of employees could offset this by exercising social control on offenders. This study uses data from different sources to test this expectation across 278 Dutch neighborhoods in the four largest cities of the Netherlands, using multivariate multilevel analysis to disentangle individual perception differences of disorder and neighborhood effects. Attention is paid to traditional explanations of disorder (i.e., poverty, residential mobility, and ethnic heterogeneity). Results show a positive relationship between business presence and neighborhood disorder. We do not find consistent results of the number of employees (i.e., bigger businesses are not always better or worse). Our research demonstrates that the presence of neighborhood businesses could rival the effects of social disorganization theory

Identifying the appropriate spatial resolution for the analysis of crime patterns

BACKGROUND:A key issue in the analysis of many spatial processes is the choice of an appropriate scale for the analysis. Smaller geographical units are generally preferable for the study of human phenomena because they are less likely to cause heterogeneous groups to be conflated. However, it can be harder to obtain data for small units and small-number problems can frustrate quantitative analysis. This research presents a new approach that can be used to estimate the most appropriate scale at which to aggregate point data to areas. DATA AND METHODS:The proposed method works by creating a number of regular grids with iteratively smaller cell sizes (increasing grid resolution) and estimating the similarity between two realisations of the point pattern at each resolution. The method is applied first to simulated point patterns and then to real publicly available crime data from the city of Vancouver, Canada. The crime types tested are residential burglary, commercial burglary, theft from vehicle and theft of bike. FINDINGS:The results provide evidence for the size of spatial unit that is the most appropriate for the different types of crime studied. Importantly, the results are dependent on both the number of events in the data and the degree of spatial clustering, so a single 'appropriate' scale is not identified. The method is nevertheless useful as a means of better estimating what spatial scale might be appropriate for a particular piece of analysis

Doubling: Nick Leeson's trading strategy

This paper examines the trading strategy attributed to Mr. Nicholas Leeson, who was the chief derivatives trader of Barings bank in Singapore. His activities were the main cause of the eventual collapse of Barings bank. Daily information is available for the full period Leeson was active in Singapore, from January 1992 until 1995, for all relevant products. The information includes daily volume, open interest, opening, closing, highest and lowest price. The empirical evidence suggests that Leeson followed a doubling strategy: he continuously doubled his position as prices were falling

Relative Distress and Return Distribution Characteristics of Japanese Stocks, a Fuzzy-Probabilistic Approach

In this article, we demonstrate that a direct relation exists between the context of Japanese firms indicating relative distress and conditional return distribution properties. We map cross-sectional vectors with company characteristics on vectors with return feature vectors, using a fuzzy identification technique called Competitive Exception Learning Algorithm (CELA)1. In this study we use company characteristics that follow from capital structure theory and we relate the recognized conditional return properties to this theory. Using the rules identified by this mapping procedure this approach enables us to make conditional predictions regarding the probability of a stock's or a group of stocks' return series for different return distribution classes (actually return indices). Using these findings, one may construct conditional indices that may serve as benchmarks. These would be particularly useful for tracking and portfolio management

A Dynamic Network Model to Explain the Development of Excellent Human Performance

Across different domains, from sports to science, some individuals accomplish excellent levels of performance. For over 150 years, researchers have debated the roles of specific nature and nurture components to develop excellence. In this article, we argue that the key to excellence does not reside in specific underlying components, but rather in the ongoing interactions among the components. We propose that excellence emerges out of dynamic networks consisting of idiosyncratic mixtures of interacting components such as genetic endowment, motivation, practice, and coaching. Using computer simulations we demonstrate that the dynamic network model accurately predicts typical properties of excellence reported in the literature, such as the idiosyncratic developmental trajectories leading to excellence and the highly skewed distributions of productivity present in virtually any achievement domain. Based on this novel theoretical perspective on excellent human performance, this article concludes by suggesting policy implications and directions for future research

A nonsense mutation in B3GALNT2 is concordant with hydrocephalus in Friesian horses

Background: Hydrocephalus in Friesian horses is a developmental disorder that often results in stillbirth of affected foals and dystocia in dams. The occurrence is probably related to a founder effect and inbreeding in the population. The aim of our study was to find genomic associations, to investigate the mode of inheritance, to allow a DNA test for hydrocephalus in Friesian horses to be developed. In case of a monogenic inheritance we aimed to identify the causal mutation. Results: A genome-wide association study of hydrocephalus in 13 cases and 69 controls using 29,720 SNPs indicated the involvement of a region on ECA1 (P T corresponding to XP_001491595 p.Gln475* was identical to a B3GALNT2 mutation identified in a human case of muscular dystrophy-dystroglycanopathy with hydrocephalus. All 16 available cases and none of the controls were homozygous for the mutation, and all 17 obligate carriers (= dams of cases) were heterozygous. A random sample of the Friesian horse population (n = 865) was tested for the mutation in a commercial laboratory. One-hundred and forty-seven horses were carrier and 718 horses were homozygous for the normal allele; the estimated allele frequency in the Friesian horse population is 0.085. Conclusions: Hydrocephalus in Friesian horses has an autosomal recessive mode of inheritance. A nonsense mutation XM_001491545 c.1423C>T corresponding to XP_001491595 p.Gln475* in B3GALNT2 (1: 75,859,296-75,909,376) is concordant with hydrocephalus in Friesian horses. Application of a DNA test in the breeding programme will reduce the losses caused by hydrocephalus in the Friesian horse population

Dwarfism with joint laxity in Friesian horses is associated with a splice site mutation in B4GALT7

Background: Inbreeding and population bottlenecks in the ancestry of Friesian horses has led to health issues such as dwarfism. The limbs of dwarfs are short and the ribs are protruding inwards at the costochondral junction, while the head and back appear normal. A striking feature of the condition is the flexor tendon laxity that leads to hyperextension of the fetlock joints. The growth plates of dwarfs display disorganized and thickened chondrocyte columns. The aim of this study was to identify the gene defect that causes the recessively inherited trait in Friesian horses to understand the disease process at the molecular level. Results: We have localized the genetic cause of the dwarfism phenotype by a genome wide approach to a 3 Mb region on the p-arm of equine chromosome 14. The DNA of two dwarfs and one control Friesian horse was sequenced completely and we identified the missense mutation ECA14:g.4535550C> T that cosegregated with the phenotype in all Friesians analyzed. The mutation leads to the amino acid substitution p.(Arg17Lys) of xylosylprotein beta 1,4-galactosyltransferase 7 encoded by B4GALT7. The protein is one of the enzymes that synthesize the tetrasaccharide linker between protein and glycosaminoglycan moieties of proteoglycans of the extracellular matrix. The mutation not only affects a conserved arginine codon but also the last nucleotide of the first exon of the gene and we show that it impedes splicing of the primary transcript in cultured fibroblasts from a heterozygous horse. As a result, the level of B4GALT7 mRNA in fibroblasts from a dwarf is only 2 % compared to normal levels. Mutations in B4GALT7 in humans are associated with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome progeroid type 1 and Larsen of Reunion Island syndrome. Growth retardation and ligamentous laxity are common manifestations of these syndromes. Conclusions: We suggest that the identified mutation of equine B4GALT7 leads to the typical dwarfism phenotype in Friesian horses due to deficient splicing of transcripts of the gene. The mutated gene implicates the extracellular matrix in the regular organization of chrondrocyte columns of the growth plate. Conservation of individual amino acids may not be necessary at the protein level but instead may reflect underlying conservation of nucleotide sequence that are required for efficient splicing