Models of Dispersal and Diversification

Ecology and evolutionary biology is the study of life on this planet. One of the many methods applied to answering the great diversity of questions regarding the lives and characteristics of individual organisms, is the utilization of mathematical models. Such models are used in a wide variety of ways. Some help us to reason, functioning as aids to, or substitutes for, our own fallible logic, thus making argumentation and thinking clearer. Models which help our reasoning can lead to conceptual clarification; by expressing ideas in algebraic terms, the relationship between different concepts become clearer. Other mathematical models are used to better understand yet more complicated models, or to develop mathematical tools for their analysis. Though helping us to reason and being used as tools in the craftmanship of science, many models do not tell us much about the real biological phenomena we are, at least initially, interested in. The main reason for this is that any mathematical model is a simplification of the real world, reducing the complexity and variety of interactions and idiosynchracies of individual organisms. What such models can tell us, however, both is and has been very valuable throughout the history of ecology and evolution. Minimally, a model simplifying the complex world can tell us that in principle, the patterns produced in a model could also be produced in the real world. We can never know how different a simplified mathematical representation is from the real world, but the similarity models do strive for, gives us confidence that their results could apply. This thesis deals with a variety of different models, used for different purposes. One model deals with how one can measure and analyse invasions; the expanding phase of invasive species. Earlier analyses claims to have shown that such invasions can be a regulated phenomena, that higher invasion speeds at a given point in time will lead to a reduction in speed. Two simple mathematical models show that analysis on this particular measure of invasion speed need not be evidence of regulation. In the context of dispersal evolution, two models acting as proof-of-principle are presented. Parent-offspring conflict emerges when there are different evolutionary optima for adaptive behavior for parents and offspring. We show that the evolution of dispersal distances can entail such a conflict, and that under parental control of dispersal (as, for example, in higher plants) wider dispersal kernels are optimal. We also show that dispersal homeostasis can be optimal; in a setting where dispersal decisions (to leave or stay in a natal patch) are made, strategies that divide their seeds or eggs into fractions that disperse or not, as opposed to randomized for each seed, can prevail. We also present a model of the evolution of bet-hedging strategies; evolutionary adaptations that occur despite their fitness, on average, being lower than a competing strategy. Such strategies can win in the long run because they have a reduced variance in fitness coupled with a reduction in mean fitness, and fitness is of a multiplicative nature across generations, and therefore sensitive to variability. This model is used for conceptual clarification; by developing a population genetical model with uncertain fitness and expressing genotypic variance in fitness as a product between individual level variance and correlations between individuals of a genotype. We arrive at expressions that intuitively reflect two of the main categorizations of bet-hedging strategies; conservative vs diversifying and within- vs between-generation bet hedging. In addition, this model shows that these divisions in fact are false dichotomies.Ei saatavilla

Uncertainties in assessing the environmental impact of amine emissions from a CO 2 capture plant

In this study, a new model framework that couples the atmospheric chemistry transport model system WRF-EMEP and the multimedia fugacity level III model was used to assess the environmental impact of amine emissions to air from post-combustion carbon dioxide capture. The modelling framework was applied to a typical carbon capture plant artificially placed at Mongstad, west coast of Norway. WRF-EMEP enables a detailed treatment of amine chemistry in addition to atmospheric transport and deposition. Deposition fluxes of WRF-EMEP simulations were used as input to the fugacity model in order to derive concentrations of nitramines and nitrosamine in lake water. Predicted concentrations of nitramines and nitrosamines in ground-level air and drinking water were found to be highly sensitive to the description of amine chemistry, especially of the night time chemistry with the nitrate (NO3) radical. Sensitivity analysis of the fugacity model indicates that catchment characteristics and chemical degradation rates in soil and water are among the important factors controlling the fate of these compounds in lake water. The study shows that realistic emission of commonly used amines result in levels of the sum of nitrosamines and nitramines in ground-level air (0.6–10 pgm−3) and drinking water (0.04–0.25 ngL−1) below the current safety guideline for human health enforced by the Norwegian Environmental Directorate. The modelling framework developed in this study can be used to evaluate possible environmental impacts of emissions of amines from post-combustion capture in other regions of the world

Effectiveness of mRNA booster vaccination against mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant in a large, population-based, Norwegian cohort

Background Understanding how booster vaccination can prevent moderate and severe illness without hospitalization is crucial to evaluate the full advantage of mRNA boosters. Methods We followed 85 801 participants (aged 31–81 years) in 2 large population-based cohorts during the Omicron BA.1/2 wave. Information on home testing, PCR testing, and symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was extracted from biweekly questionnaires covering the period 12 January 2022 to 7 April 2022. Vaccination status and data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were obtained from national registries. Cox regression was used to estimate the effectiveness of booster vaccination compared to receipt of 2-dose primary series >130 days previously. Results The effectiveness of booster vaccination increased with increasing severity of COVID-19 and decreased with time since booster vaccination. The effectiveness against severe COVID-19 was reduced from 80.9% shortly after booster vaccination to 63.4% in the period >90 days after vaccination. There was hardly any effect against mild COVID-19. The effectiveness tended to be lower among subjects aged ≥60 years than those aged <50 years. Conclusions This is the first population-based study to evaluate booster effectiveness against self-reported mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19. Our findings contribute valuable information on duration of protection and thus timing of additional booster vaccinations.publishedVersio

Risk assessment of butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT). Opinion of the Panel on Food Additives, Flavourings, Processing Aids, Materials in Contact with Food, and Cosmetics of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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Risk assessment of caffeine exposure from diet and personal care products. Opinion of the Panel on Food Additives, Flavourings, Processing Aids, Materials in Contact with Food, and Cosmetics of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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No difference in risk of hospitalization between reported cases of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and Alpha variant in Norway

Objectives To estimate the risk of hospitalization among reported cases of the Delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) compared with the Alpha variant in Norway, and the risk of hospitalization by vaccination status. Methods A cohort study was conducted on laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Norway, diagnosed between 3 May and 15 August 2021. Adjusted risk ratios (aRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using multi-variable log-binomial regression, accounting for variant, vaccination status, demographic characteristics, week of sampling and underlying comorbidities. Results In total, 7977 cases of the Delta variant and 12,078 cases of the Alpha variant were included in this study. Overall, 347 (1.7%) cases were hospitalized. The aRR of hospitalization for the Delta variant compared with the Alpha variant was 0.97 (95% CI 0.76–1.23). Partially vaccinated cases had a 72% reduced risk of hospitalization (95% CI 59–82%), and fully vaccinated cases had a 76% reduced risk of hospitalization (95% CI 61–85%) compared with unvaccinated cases. Conclusions No difference was found between the risk of hospitalization for Delta cases and Alpha cases in Norway. The results of this study support the notion that partially and fully vaccinated cases are highly protected against hospitalization with coronavirus disease 2019.publishedVersio

Protocol for a scoping review of systematic reviews on environmental effects of sunscreen ingredients. From the Panel on Food Additives, Flavourings, Processing Aids, Materials in Contact with Food, and Cosmetics of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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Benefit and risk assessment of iodization of household salt and salt used in bread and bakery products. Scientific opinion of the Panel on Nutrition, Dietetic Products, Novel Food and Allergy of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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The Adaptability of Full Cast Crown in Preclinical Practice

A study was made to evaluate the adaptability of full cast crowns in preclinical practice of the fifth year students at Matsumoto Dental College in 1984. Gap space between the inner surface of the full cast crown and the surface of the abutment tooth was investigated with silicon material. The results were as follows: 1) The adaptability of crowns was better at the mesial surface than at the distal surface, and better at the lingual surface than at the buccal surface. 2) The adaptability of crowns was better at the axial walls, especialy in the middle, than in the cervical margin. 3) At the occulusal surface, the adaptability of crowns was worst