VCBART: Bayesian trees for varying coefficients

Many studies have reported associations between later-life cognition and socioeconomic position in childhood, young adulthood, and mid-life. However, the vast majority of these studies are unable to quantify how these associations vary over time and with respect to several demographic factors. Varying coefficient (VC) models, which treat the covariate effects in a linear model as nonparametric functions of additional effect modifiers, offer an appealing way to overcome these limitations. Unfortunately, state-of-the-art VC modeling methods require computationally prohibitive parameter tuning or make restrictive assumptions about the functional form of the covariate effects. In response, we propose VCBART, which estimates the covariate effects in a VC model using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. With simple default hyperparameter settings, VCBART outperforms existing methods in terms of covariate effect estimation and prediction. Using VCBART, we predict the cognitive trajectories of 4,167 subjects from the Health and Retirement Study using multiple measures of socioeconomic position and physical health. We find that socioeconomic position in childhood and young adulthood have small effects that do not vary with age. In contrast, the effects of measures of mid-life physical health tend to vary with respect to age, race, and marital status. An R package implementing VC-BART is available at https://github.com/skdeshpande91/VCBAR

Swift captures the spectrally evolving prompt emission of GRB 070616

The origins of Gamma-ray Burst prompt emission are currently not well understood and in this context long, well-observed events are particularly important to study. We present the case of GRB 070616, analysing the exceptionally long-duration multipeaked prompt emission, and later afterglow, captured by all the instruments on-board Swift and by Suzaku WAM. The high energy light curve remained generally flat for several hundred seconds before going into a steep decline. Spectral evolution from hard to soft is clearly taking place throughout the prompt emission, beginning at 285 s after the trigger and extending to 1200 s. We track the movement of the spectral peak energy, whilst observing a softening of the low energy spectral slope. The steep decline in flux may be caused by a combination of this strong spectral evolution and the curvature effect. We investigate origins for the spectral evolution, ruling out a superposition of two power laws and considering instead an additional component dominant during the late prompt emission. We also discuss origins for the early optical emission and the physics of the afterglow. The case of GRB 070616 clearly demonstrates that both broadband coverage and good time resolution are crucial to pin down the origins of the complex prompt emission in GRBs.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures (2 in colour), MNRAS accepte

Multiwavelength XMM-Newton observations of the Laor et al. sample of PG quasars

We present XMM-Newton/EPIC spectra for the Laor et al. sample of Palomar Green quasars. We find that a power-law provides a reasonable fit to the 2-5 keV region of the spectra. Excess soft X-ray emission below 2 keV is present for all objects, with the exception of those known to contain a warm absorber. A single power-law is, however, a poor fit to the 0.3-10.0 keV spectrum and instead we find that a simple model, consisting of a broken power-law (plus an iron line), provides a reasonable fit in most cases. The equivalent width of the emission line is constrained in just twelve objects but with low (<2 sigma) significance in most cases. For the sources whose spectra are well-fit by the broken power-law model, we find that various optical and X-ray line and continuum parameters are well-correlated; in particular, the power-law photon index is well-correlated with the FWHM of the Hbeta line and the photon indices of the low and high energy components of the broken power-law are well-correlated with each other. These results suggest that the 0.3-10 keV X-ray emission shares a common (presumably non-thermal) origin, as opposed to suggestions that the soft excess is directly produced by thermal disc emission or via an additional spectral component. We present XMM-Newton/OM data which we combine with the X-ray spectra so as to produce broad-band spectral energy distributions, free from uncertainties due to long-term variability in non-simultaneous data. Fitting these optical-UV spectra with a Comptonized disc model indicates that the soft X-ray excess is independent of the accretion disc, confirming our interpretation of the tight correlation between the hard and soft X-ray spectra.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Gas and dust properties in the afterglow spectra of GRB 050730

We present early WHT ISIS optical spectroscopy of the afterglow of gamma-ray burst GRB 050730. The spectrum shows a DLA system with the highest measured hydrogen column to date: N(HI) = 22.1 +/- 0.1 at the third-highest GRB redshift z = 3.968. Our analysis of the Swift XRT X-ray observations of the early afterglow show X-ray flares accompanied by decreasing X-ray absorption. From both the optical and the X-ray spectra we constrain the dust and gas properties of the host galaxy. We find the host to be a low metallicity galaxy, with low dust content. Much of the X-ray absorbing gas is situated close to the GRB, whilst the HI absorption causing the DLA is most likely located further out.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for A&A Letter

Universal law of fractionation for slightly polydisperse systems

By perturbing about a general monodisperse system, we provide a complete description of two-phase equilibria in any system which is slightly polydisperse in some property (e.g., particle size, charge, etc.). We derive a universal law of fractionation which is corroborated by comprehensive experiments on a model colloid-polymer mixture. We furthermore predict that phase separation is an effective method of reducing polydispersity only for systems with a skewed distribution of the polydisperse property

Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows as Probes of Environment and Blastwave Physics II: The Distribution of p and Structure of the Circumburst Medium

We constrain blastwave parameters and the circumburst media of a subsample of BeppoSAX Gamma-Ray Bursts. For this sample we derive the values of the injected electron energy distribution index, p, and the density structure index of the circumburst medium, k, from simultaneous spectral fits to their X-ray, optical and nIR afterglow data. The spectral fits have been done in count space and include the effects of metallicity, and are compared with the previously reported optical and X-ray temporal behaviour. Assuming the fireball model, we can find a mean value of p for the sample as a whole of 2.035. A statistical analysis Of the distribution demonstrates that the p values in this sample are inconsistent with a single universal value for p at the 3sigma level or greater. This approach provides us with a measured distribution of circumburst density structures rather than considering only the cases of k = 0 (homogeneous) and k = 2 (wind-like). We find five GRBs for which k can be well constrained, and in four of these cases the circumburst medium is clearly wind-like. The fifth source has a value of 0 less than or equal to k less than or equal to 1, consistent with a homogeneous circumburst medium

Optical Classification of Gamma-Ray Bursts in the Swift Era

We propose a new method for the classification of optically dark gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), based on the X-ray and optical-to-X-ray spectral indices of GRB afterglows, and utilizing the spectral capabilities of Swift. This method depends less on model assumptions than previous methods, and can be used as a quick diagnostic tool to identify optically sub-luminous bursts. With this method we can also find GRBs that are extremely bright at optical wavelengths. We show that the previously suggested correlation between the optical darkness and the X-ray/gamma-ray brightness is merely an observational selection effect.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures; accepted for publication in Ap

Spectroscopy of the optical afterglow of GRB 021004: Origin of the blue-shifted hydrogen lines

We present spectra of the afterglow of GRB 021004 taken with WHT ISIS and VLT FORS1 at three epochs spanning 0.49–6.62 days after the burst. Alongside absorption lines from the host galaxy, we identify absorption in HI, SiIV and CIV with blueshifts of up to 2800 km s−1 from the explosion centre which we assume originates close to the progenitor. We investigate the origin of the outflowing material and evaluate various possible progenitor models, in particular a binary progenitor consisting of a Wolf-Rayet star and hydrogen-rich companion