Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence.

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm's core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones

Reducing systematic review workload using text mining: opportunities and pitfalls

This EAHIL workshop focussed on three applications of text mining to assist with screening citations for systematic reviews, and encouraged participants to discuss issues affecting their adoption. This paper outlines these applications and summarises the factors raised by participants in relation to their uptake. Key aspects to uptake include having an accepted advantage over existing approaches, coupled with training and user support

Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis

INTRODUCTION: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics. METHODS: Three risk-stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person-years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB-LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB-LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only. RESULTS: Increasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB-LA users among PrEP-eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5-10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP-indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands)

Urban tourist precincts as sites of play

This chapter examines the urban tourism precinct as an organised space for playful forms of leisure in the city. We argue that these spaces create an environment for leisured interaction where both visitor and host engage as mutual actors in urban playgrounds. The chapter commences with a conceptual overview of the urban tourism precinct. It then considers the notion of play through an analysis of selected seminal discourses. These discourses are linked to the precinct in the context of a play space within the city using data gathered from two studies conducted in The Rocks and Darling Harbour precincts in Sydney, Australia (Hayllar and Griffin 2005, 2006). The chapter concludes with a discussion on the implications for the design and management of urban tourism precincts

Evolution of pathogenicity and sexual reproduction in eight Candida genomes

Candida species are the most common cause of opportunistic fungal infection worldwide. Here we report the genome sequences of six Candida species and compare these and related pathogens and non-pathogens. There are significant expansions of cell wall, secreted and transporter gene families in pathogenic species, suggesting adaptations associated with virulence. Large genomic tracts are homozygous in three diploid species, possibly resulting from recent recombination events. Surprisingly, key components of the mating and meiosis pathways are missing from several species. These include major differences at the mating-type loci (MTL); Lodderomyces elongisporus lacks MTL, and components of the a1/2 cell identity determinant were lost in other species, raising questions about how mating and cell types are controlled. Analysis of the CUG leucine-to-serine genetic-code change reveals that 99% of ancestral CUG codons were erased and new ones arose elsewhere. Lastly, we revise the Candida albicans gene catalogue, identifying many new genes.publishe

Defining the process to literature searching in systematic reviews: a literature review of guidance and supporting studies

BACKGROUND: Systematic literature searching is recognised as a critical component of the systematic review process. It involves a systematic search for studies and aims for a transparent report of study identification, leaving readers clear about what was done to identify studies, and how the findings of the review are situated in the relevant evidence. Information specialists and review teams appear to work from a shared and tacit model of the literature search process. How this tacit model has developed and evolved is unclear, and it has not been explicitly examined before. The purpose of this review is to determine if a shared model of the literature searching process can be detected across systematic review guidance documents and, if so, how this process is reported in the guidance and supported by published studies. METHOD: A literature review. Two types of literature were reviewed: guidance and published studies. Nine guidance documents were identified, including: The Cochrane and Campbell Handbooks. Published studies were identified through 'pearl growing', citation chasing, a search of PubMed using the systematic review methods filter, and the authors' topic knowledge. The relevant sections within each guidance document were then read and re-read, with the aim of determining key methodological stages. Methodological stages were identified and defined. This data was reviewed to identify agreements and areas of unique guidance between guidance documents. Consensus across multiple guidance documents was used to inform selection of 'key stages' in the process of literature searching. RESULTS: Eight key stages were determined relating specifically to literature searching in systematic reviews. They were: who should literature search, aims and purpose of literature searching, preparation, the search strategy, searching databases, supplementary searching, managing references and reporting the search process. CONCLUSIONS: Eight key stages to the process of literature searching in systematic reviews were identified. These key stages are consistently reported in the nine guidance documents, suggesting consensus on the key stages of literature searching, and therefore the process of literature searching as a whole, in systematic reviews. Further research to determine the suitability of using the same process of literature searching for all types of systematic review is indicated

Absence of evidence for the conservation outcomes of systematic conservation planning around the globe : A systematic map

Background Systematic conservation planning is a discipline concerned with the prioritisation of resources for biodiversity conservation and is often used in the design or assessment of terrestrial and marine protected area networks. Despite being an evidence-based discipline, to date there has been no comprehensive review of the outcomes of systematic conservation plans and assessments of the relative effectiveness of applications in different contexts. To address this fundamental gap in knowledge, our primary research question was: what is the extent, distribution and robustness of evidence on conservation outcomes of systematic conservation planning around the globe? Methods A systematic mapping exercise was undertaken using standardised search terms across 29 sources, including publication databases, online repositories and a wide range of grey literature sources. The review team screened articles recursively, first by title only, then abstract and finally by full-text, using inclusion criteria related to systematic conservation plans conducted at sub-global scales and reported on since 1983. We sought studies that reported outcomes relating to natural, human, social, financial or institutional outcomes and which employed robust evaluation study designs. The following information was extracted from included studies: bibliographic details, background information including location of study and broad objectives of the plan, study design, reported outcomes and context. Results Of the approximately 10,000 unique articles returned through our searches, 1209 were included for full-text screening and 43 studies reported outcomes of conservation planning interventions. However, only three studies involved the use of evaluation study designs which are suitably rigorous for inclusion, according to best-practice guidelines. The three included studies were undertaken in the Gulf of California (Mexico), Réunion Island, and The Nature Conservancy’s landholdings across the USA. The studies varied widely in context, purpose and outcomes. Study designs were non-experimental or qualitative, and involved use of spatial landholdings over time, stakeholder surveys and modelling of alternative planning scenarios. Conclusion Rigorous evaluations of systematic conservation plans are currently not published in academic journals or made publicly available elsewhere. Despite frequent claims relating to positive implications and outcomes of these planning activities, we show that evaluations are probably rarely conducted. This finding does not imply systematic conservation planning is not effective but highlights a significant gap in our understanding of how, when and why it may or may not be effective. Our results also corroborate claims that the literature on systematic conservation planning is dominated by methodological studies, rather than those that focus on implementation and outcomes, and support the case that this is a problematic imbalance in the literature. We emphasise the need for academics and practitioners to publish the outcomes of systematic conservation planning exercises and to consider employing robust evaluation methodologies when reporting project outcomes. Adequate reporting of outcomes will in turn enable transparency and accountability between institutions and funding bodies as well as improving the science and practice of conservation planning