Robust Projections of Future Fire Probability for the Conterminous United States

Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures. PC2FM is a physically-based and scale-independent model that predicts mean fire return intervals from both fire reactant and reaction variables, which are largely dependent on a locale\u27s climate. Our results overwhelmingly depict increasing potential fire probabilities across the conterminous US for both climate scenarios. The primary mechanism for the projected increases is rising temperatures, reflecting changes in the chemical reaction environment commensurate with enhanced photosynthetic rates and available thermal molecular energy. Existing high risk areas, such as the Cascade Range and the Coastal California Mountains, are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, with relative increases of 122% and 67%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to increases of 63% and 38% under RCP 4.5. Regions not currently associated with frequently occurring wildfires, such as New England and the Great Lakes, are projected to experience a doubling of occurrence probabilities by 2100 under RCP 8.5. This high resolution, continental-scale modeling study of climate change impacts on potential fire probability accounts for shifting background environmental conditions across regions that will interact with topographic drivers to significantly alter future fire probabilities. The ensemble modeling approach presents a useful planning tool for mitigation and adaptation strategies in regions of increasing wildfire risk

Patterns and Collective Behavior in Granular Media: Theoretical Concepts

Granular materials are ubiquitous in our daily lives. While they have been a subject of intensive engineering research for centuries, in the last decade granular matter attracted significant attention of physicists. Yet despite a major efforts by many groups, the theoretical description of granular systems remains largely a plethora of different, often contradicting concepts and approaches. Authors give an overview of various theoretical models emerged in the physics of granular matter, with the focus on the onset of collective behavior and pattern formation. Their aim is two-fold: to identify general principles common for granular systems and other complex non-equilibrium systems, and to elucidate important distinctions between collective behavior in granular and continuum pattern-forming systems.Comment: Submitted to Reviews of Modern Physics. Full text with figures (2Mb pdf) avaliable at http://mti.msd.anl.gov/AransonTsimringReview/aranson_tsimring.pdf Community responce is appreciated. Comments/suggestions send to [email protected]

Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010 [1], Amoroso et al., 2017 [2]). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since the early 20th century when dendrochronologists recognized that tree rings retained fire scars (e.g., Figure 1), and hence a record of past fires, they have conducted studies worldwide to reconstruct [2] the historical range and variability of fire regimes (e.g., frequency, severity, seasonality, spatial extent), [3] the influence of fire regimes on forest structure and ecosystem dynamics, and [4] the top-down (e.g., climate) and bottom-up (e.g., fuels, topography) drivers of fire that operate at a range of temporal and spatial scales. As in other scientific fields, continued application of dendrochronological techniques to study fires has shaped new trajectories for the science. Here we highlight some important current directions in the United States (US) and call on our international colleagues to continue the conversation with perspectives from other countries

A dynamic leaf gas-exchange strategy is conserved in woody plants under changing ambient CO2: evidence from carbon isotope discrimination in paleo and CO2 enrichment studies

Rising atmospheric [CO2 ], ca , is expected to affect stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange of woody plants, thus influencing energy fluxes as well as carbon (C), water and nutrient cycling of forests. Researchers have proposed various strategies for stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange that include maintaining a constant leaf internal [CO2 ], ci , a constant drawdown in CO2 (ca - ci ), and a constant ci /ca . These strategies can result in drastically different consequences for leaf gas-exchange. The accuracy of Earth systems models depends in part on assumptions about generalizable patterns in leaf gas-exchange responses to varying ca . The concept of optimal stomatal behavior, exemplified by woody plants shifting along a continuum of these strategies, provides a unifying framework for understanding leaf gas-exchange responses to ca . To assess leaf gas-exchange regulation strategies, we analyzed patterns in ci inferred from studies reporting C stable isotope ratios (δ(13) C) or photosynthetic discrimination (∆) in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms that grew across a range of ca spanning at least 100 ppm. Our results suggest that much of the ca -induced changes in ci /ca occurred across ca spanning 200 to 400 ppm. These patterns imply that ca - ci will eventually approach a constant level at high ca because assimilation rates will reach a maximum and stomatal conductance of each species should be constrained to some minimum level. These analyses are not consistent with canalization towards any single strategy, particularly maintaining a constant ci . Rather, the results are consistent with the existence of a broadly conserved pattern of stomatal optimization in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms. This results in trees being profligate water users at low ca , when additional water loss is small for each unit of C gain, and increasingly water-conservative at high ca , when photosystems are saturated and water loss is large for each unit C gain. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Rising atmospheric [CO2], c(a), is expected to affect stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange of woody plants, thus influencing energy fluxes as well as carbon (C), water, and nutrient cycling of forests. Researchers have proposed various strategies for stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange that include maintaining a constant leaf internal [CO2], c(i), a constant drawdown in CO2 (c(a)-c(i)), and a constant c(i)/c(a). These strategies can result in drastically different consequences for leaf gas-exchange. The accuracy of Earth systems models depends in part on assumptions about generalizable patterns in leaf gas-exchange responses to varying c(a). The concept of optimal stomatal behavior, exemplified by woody plants shifting along a continuum of these strategies, provides a unifying framework for understanding leaf gas-exchange responses to c(a). To assess leaf gas-exchange regulation strategies, we analyzed patterns in c(i) inferred from studies reporting C stable isotope ratios (C-13) or photosynthetic discrimination () in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms that grew across a range of c(a) spanning at least 100ppm. Our results suggest that much of the c(a)-induced changes in c(i)/c(a) occurred across c(a) spanning 200 to 400ppm. These patterns imply that c(a)-c(i) will eventually approach a constant level at high c(a) because assimilation rates will reach a maximum and stomatal conductance of each species should be constrained to some minimum level. These analyses are not consistent with canalization toward any single strategy, particularly maintaining a constant c(i). Rather, the results are consistent with the existence of a broadly conserved pattern of stomatal optimization in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms. This results in trees being profligate water users at low c(a), when additional water loss is small for each unit of C gain, and increasingly water-conservative at high c(a), when photosystems are saturated and water loss is large for each unit C gain

Advanced Tokamak Scenario Modeling with Off-Axix ECH in DIII-D

Time-dependent simulations with transport coefficients derived from experimentally achieved discharges are used to explore the capability of off-axis electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) to control hollow current profiles in negative central shear discharges. Assuming these transport coefficients remain unchanged at higher EC power levels, the simulation results show that high confinement, high normalized beta and high bootstrap fraction can be achieved with EC power expected to be available in the near future in the DIII-D tokamak

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America

The toughness of epoxy-poly(butylene terephthalate) blends

Blends containing 5% poly(butylene terephthalate) (PBT) in an anhydride-cured epoxy with three different PBT morphologies were studied. The three morphologies were a dispersion of spherulites, a structureless gel and a gel with spherulites. The average fracture toughnesses, K Ic , and fracture energies, G Ic , for those morphologies were 0.83, 2.3 and 1.8 MPa m 1/2 and 240, 2000 and 1150 J m −2 , respectively. These values should be compared with the values of 0.72 MPa m 1/2 and 180 J m −2 , respectively, for the cured epoxy without PBT. The elastic moduli and yield strengths in compression for all three blend morphologies remained essentially unchanged from those of the cured epoxy without PBT, namely, 2.9 GPa for the modulus and 115 MPa for the yield strength. The fracture surfaces of the cured spherulitic dispersion blends indicate the absorption of fracture energy by crack bifurcation induced by the spherulites. The fracture surfaces of the cured structureless gel blends indicate that fracture energy was absorbed by matrix and PBT plastic deformation and by spontaneous crack bifurcation. But phase transformation of the PBT and anelastic strain of the matrix below the fracture surfaces may account for most of the large fracture energy of the cured structureless gel blends.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44733/1/10853_2004_Article_BF00366876.pd