The stubborn non-probabilist : "negation incoherence" and a new way to block the Dutch Book argument

We rigorously specify the class of nonprobabilistic agents which are, we argue, immune to the classical Dutch Book argument. We also discuss the notion of expected value used in the argument as well as sketch future research connecting our results to those concerning incoherence measures

The Relationship Between Belief and Credence

Sometimes epistemologists theorize about belief, a tripartite attitude on which one can believe, withhold belief, or disbelieve a proposition. In other cases, epistemologists theorize about credence, a fine-grained attitude that represents one’s subjective probability or confidence level toward a proposition. How do these two attitudes relate to each other? This article explores the relationship between belief and credence in two categories: descriptive and normative. It then explains the broader significance of the belief-credence connection and concludes with general lessons from the debate thus far

Reasoning with heuristics

Which rules should guide our reasoning? Human reasoners often use reasoning shortcuts, called heuristics, which function well in some contexts but lack the universality of reasoning rules like deductive implication or inference to the best explanation. Does it follow that human reasoning is hopelessly irrational? I argue: no. Heuristic reasoning often represents human reasoners reaching a local rational maximum, reasoning more accurately than if they try to implement more “ideal” rules of reasoning. I argue this is a genuine rational achievement. Our ideal rational advisors would advise us to reason with heuristic rules, not more complicated ideal rules. I argue we do not need a radical new account of epistemic norms to make sense of the success of heuristic reasoning

Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned

The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research

7th SOSORT consensus paper: conservative treatment of idiopathic & Scheuermann's kyphosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p/> <p>Thoracic hyperkyphosis is a frequent problem and can impact greatly on patient's quality of life during adolescence. This condition can be idiopathic or secondary to Scheuermann disease, a disease disturbing vertebral growth. To date, there is no sound scientific data available on the management of this condition. Some studies discuss the effects of bracing, however no guidelines, protocols or indication's of treatment for this condition were found. The aim of this paper was to develop and verify the consensus on managing thoracic hyperkyphosis patients treated with braces and/or physiotherapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Delphi process was utilised in four steps gradually modified according to the results of a set of recommendations: we involved the SOSORT Board twice, then all SOSORT members twice, with a Pre-Meeting Questionnaire (PMQ), and during a Consensus Session at the SOSORT Lyon Meeting with a Meeting Questionnaire (MQ).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was an unanimous agreement on the general efficacy of bracing and physiotherapy for this condition. Most experts suggested the use of 4-5 point bracing systems, however there was some controversy with regards to physiotherapeutic aims and modalities.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The SOSORT panel of experts suggest the use of rigid braces and physiotherapy to correct thoracic hyperkyphosis during adolescence. The evaluation of specific braces and physiotherapy techniques has been recommended.</p

Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned

The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research

Fragmentation and logical omniscience

It would be good to have a Bayesian decision theory that assesses our decisions and thinking according to everyday standards of rationality — standards that do not require logical omniscience (Garber 1983, Hacking 1967). To that end we develop a “fragmented” decision theory in which a single state of mind is represented by a family of credence functions, each associated with a distinct choice condition (Lewis 1982, Stalnaker 1984). The theory imposes a local coherence assumption guaranteeing that as an agent's attention shifts, successive batches of "obvious" logical information become available to her. A rule of expected utility maximization can then be applied to the decision of what to attend to next during a train of thought. On the resulting theory, rationality requires ordinary agents to be logically competent and to often engage in trains of thought that increase the unification of their states of mind. But rationality does not require ordinary agents to be logically omniscient

Belief without Credence

One of the deepest ideological divides in contemporary epistemology concerns the relative importance of belief versus credence. A prominent consideration in favor of credence-based epistemology is the ease with which it appears to account for rational action. In contrast, cases with risky payoff structures threaten to break the link between rational belief and rational action. This threat poses a challenge to traditional epistemology, which maintains the theoretical prominence of belief. The core problem, we suggest, is that belief may not be enough to register all aspects of a subject’s epistemic position with respect to any given proposition. We claim this problem can be solved by introducing other doxastic attitudes—genuine representations—that differ in strength from belief. The resulting alternative picture, a kind of doxastic states pluralism, retains the central features of traditional epistemology—most saliently, an emphasis on truth as a kind of objective accuracy—while adequately accounting for rational action