Inflation convergence in the new EU member states

In this study, the degree of convergence of inflation rates of Central and East European economies to a variety of measures of European norm inflation is assessed using a range of techniques. These include unit root testing based upon panels of data and - an innovation to the pertinent literature - tests of nonlinear convergence. The results suggest that while convergence can be revealed in a number of cases, there is some sensitivity associated with the testing framework, in particular whether time series or panel methods are used. Furthermore, the inflation convergence performance of the CEE countries is conditional on the chosen inflation benchmark, the composition of the panel and the correlations among members. Moreover, by conducting a battery of linearity tests, it is found that nonlinear inflation convergence is virtually ubiquitous for the period that includes the accession of the Central and Eastern European former transition economies into the EU

Bubbles in House Prices and their Impact on Consumption: Evidence for the US

This paper provides evidence that some aggregate and regional U.S. real house price indices exhibited a bubble in the last few years according to the Phillips et al. (2007) unit root test. We subsequently investigate whether house price acceleration (deceleration) had a signi.cant impact on consumption in an error correction mechanism implied by a wide class of optimizing models. Our results support the argument that real house prices have their major effect on consumption only during the bubble period

Inflation convergence in the new EU member states

In this study, the degree of convergence of inflation rates of Central and East European economies to a variety of measures of European norm inflation is assessed using a range of techniques. These include unit root testing based upon panels of data and - an innovation to the pertinent literature - tests of nonlinear convergence. The results suggest that while convergence can be revealed in a number of cases, there is some sensitivity associated with the testing framework, in particular whether time series or panel methods are used. Furthermore, the inflation convergence performance of the CEE countries is conditional on the chosen inflation benchmark, the composition of the panel and the correlations among members. Moreover, by conducting a battery of linearity tests, it is found that nonlinear inflation convergence is virtually ubiquitous for the period that includes the accession of the Central and Eastern European former transition economies into the EU.

Characteristics of subjective cognitive decline associated with amyloid positivity

Introduction: The evidence for characteristics of persons with subjective cognitive decline (SCD) associated with amyloid positivity is limited. Methods: In 1640 persons with SCD from 20 Amyloid Biomarker Study cohort, we investigated the associations of SCD-specific characteristics (informant confirmation, domain-specific complaints, concerns, feelings of worse performance) demographics, setting, apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) ε4 carriership, and neuropsychiatric symptoms with amyloid positivity. Results: Between cohorts, amyloid positivity in 70-year-olds varied from 10% to 76%. Only older age, clinical setting, and APOE ε4 carriership showed univariate associations with increased amyloid positivity. After adjusting for these, lower education was also associated with increased amyloid positivity. Only within a research setting, informant-confirmed complaints, memory complaints, attention/concentration complaints, and no depressive symptoms were associated with increased amyloid positivity. Feelings of worse performance were associated with less amyloid positivity at younger ages and more at older ages. Discussion: Next to age, setting, and APOE ε4 carriership, SCD-specific characteristics may facilitate the identification of amyloid-positive individuals

Biomarker-based prognosis for people with mild cognitive impairment (ABIDE): a modelling study

Background Biomarker-based risk predictions of dementia in people with mild cognitive impairment are highly relevant for care planning and to select patients for treatment when disease-modifying drugs become available. We aimed to establish robust prediction models of disease progression in people at risk of dementia. Methods In this modelling study, we included people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from single-centre and multicentre cohorts in Europe and North America: the European Medical Information Framework for Alzheimer's Disease (EMIF-AD; n=883), Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI; n=829), Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (ADC; n=666), and the Swedish BioFINDER study (n=233). Inclusion criteria were a baseline diagnosis of MCI, at least 6 months of follow-up, and availability of a baseline Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and MRI or CSF biomarker assessment. The primary endpoint was clinical progression to any type of dementia. We evaluated performance of previously developed risk prediction models—a demographics model, a hippocampal volume model, and a CSF biomarkers model—by evaluating them across cohorts, incorporating different biomarker measurement methods, and determining prognostic performance with Harrell's C statistic. We then updated the models by re-estimating parameters with and without centre-specific effects and evaluated model calibration by comparing observed and expected survival. Finally, we constructed a model combining markers for amyloid deposition, tauopathy, and neurodegeneration (ATN), in accordance with the National Institute on Aging and Alzheimer's Association research framework. Findings We included all 2611 individuals with MCI in the four cohorts, 1007 (39%) of whom progressed to dementia. The validated demographics model (Harrell's C 0·62, 95% CI 0·59–0·65), validated hippocampal volume model (0·67, 0·62–0·72), and updated CSF biomarkers model (0·72, 0·68–0·74) had adequate prognostic performance across cohorts and were well calibrated. The newly constructed ATN model had the highest performance (0·74, 0·71–0·76). Interpretation We generated risk models that are robust across cohorts, which adds to their potential clinical applicability. The models could aid clinicians in the interpretation of CSF biomarker and hippocampal volume results in individuals with MCI, and help research and clinical settings to prepare for a future of precision medicine in Alzheimer's disease. Future research should focus on the clinical utility of the models, particularly if their use affects participants' understanding, emotional wellbeing, and behaviour

The impact of automated hippocampal volumetry on diagnostic confidence in patients with suspected Alzheimer's disease: an EADC study

INTRODUCTION: Hippocampal volume is a core biomarker of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, its contribution over the standard diagnostic workup is unclear. METHODS: Three hundred fifty-six patients, under clinical evaluation for cognitive impairment, with suspected AD and Mini–Mental State Examination ≥20, were recruited across 17 European memory clinics. After the traditional diagnostic workup, diagnostic confidence of AD pathology (DCAD) was estimated by the physicians in charge. The latter were provided with the results of automated hippocampal volumetry in standardized format and DCAD was reassessed. RESULTS: An increment of one interquartile range in hippocampal volume was associated with a mean change of DCAD of −8.0% (95% credible interval: [−11.5, −5.0]). Automated hippocampal volumetry showed a statistically significant impact on DCAD beyond the contributions of neuropsychology, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/single-photon emission computed tomography, and cerebrospinal fluid markers (−8.5, CrI: [−11.5, −5.6]; −14.1, CrI: [−19.3, −8.8]; −10.6, CrI: [−14.6, −6.1], respectively). DISCUSSION: There is a measurable effect of hippocampal volume on DCAD even when used on top of the traditional diagnostic workup

The forward premium puzzle in the interwar period and deviations from covered interest parity

We revisit the forward premium puzzle in the interwar period and find that, as the deviation from covered interest rate parity increases, the coefficient on the forward premium in the standard Fama regression tends towards zero

Development of Screening Guidelines and Clinical Criteria for Predementia Alzheimer's Disease: The DESCRIPA Study

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND: There is an urgent need to identify subjects with Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the predementia phase, but validated diagnostic approaches are currently lacking. In this paper, we present the background, design and methods of a study, which aims to develop clinical criteria for predementia AD. We also present baseline characteristics of the subjects included. The study was part of the multicentre DESCRIPA project, which is being conducted within the network of the European Alzheimer's Disease Consortium. METHODS: Clinical criteria will be based on a prospective cohort study of non-demented subjects older than 55 years and referred to a memory clinic. At baseline, a number of markers and risk factors for AD were collected, including demographic variables, measures of performance in activities of daily living, cognitive, neuroimaging and genetic markers, and serum and cerebrospinal fluid markers. Subjects will be reassessed annually for 2-3 years, and we will evaluate which combination of variables best predicts AD-type dementia at follow-up. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2005, 881 subjects were included from 20 memory clinics. Subjects were on average 70.3 years old, and had 10.4 years of education. The average score on the Mini-Mental State Examination was 27.4