Robust, reproducible clinical patterns in hospitalised patients with COVID-19

Background: Severe COVID-19 is characterised by fever, cough, and dyspnoea. Symptoms affecting other organ systems have been reported. However, it is the clinical associations of different patterns of symptoms which influence diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making. In this study, we applied simple machine learning techniques to a large prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 identify clinically meaningful sub-groups. Methods: We obtained structured clinical data on 59 011 patients in the UK (the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium, 4C) and used a principled, unsupervised clustering approach to partition the first 25 477 cases according to symptoms reported at recruitment. We validated our findings in a second group of 33 534 cases recruited to ISARIC-4C, and in 4 445 cases recruited to a separate study of community cases. Findings: Unsupervised clustering identified distinct sub-groups. First, a core symptom set of fever, cough, and dyspnoea, which co-occurred with additional symptoms in three further patterns: fatigue and confusion, diarrhoea and vomiting, or productive cough. Presentations with a single reported symptom of dyspnoea or confusion were common, and a subgroup of patients reported few or no symptoms. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms were more commonly female, had a longer duration of symptoms before presentation, and had lower 30-day mortality. Patients presenting with confusion, with or without core symptoms, were older and had a higher unadjusted mortality. Symptom clusters were highly consistent in replication analysis using a further 35446 individuals subsequently recruited to ISARIC-4C. Similar patterns were externally verified in 4445 patients from a study of self-reported symptoms of mild disease. Interpretation: The large scale of the ISARIC-4C study enabled robust, granular discovery and replication of patient clusters. Clinical interpretation is necessary to determine which of these observations have practical utility. We propose that four patterns are usefully distinct from the core symptom groups: gastro-intestinal disease, productive cough, confusion, and pauci-symptomatic presentations. Importantly, each is associated with an in-hospital mortality which differs from that of patients with core symptoms. These observations deepen our understanding of COVID-19 and will influence clinical diagnosis, risk prediction, and future mechanistic and clinical studies. Funding: Medical Research Council; National Institute Health Research; Well-come Trust; Department for International Development; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre

Distinct clinical symptom patterns in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an analysis of 59,011 patients in the ISARIC-4C study.

COVID-19 is clinically characterised by fever, cough, and dyspnoea. Symptoms affecting other organ systems have been reported. However, it is the clinical associations of different patterns of symptoms which influence diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making. In this study, we applied clustering techniques to a large prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 to identify clinically meaningful sub-phenotypes. We obtained structured clinical data on 59,011 patients in the UK (the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium, 4C) and used a principled, unsupervised clustering approach to partition the first 25,477 cases according to symptoms reported at recruitment. We validated our findings in a second group of 33,534 cases recruited to ISARIC-4C, and in 4,445 cases recruited to a separate study of community cases. Unsupervised clustering identified distinct sub-phenotypes. First, a core symptom set of fever, cough, and dyspnoea, which co-occurred with additional symptoms in three further patterns: fatigue and confusion, diarrhoea and vomiting, or productive cough. Presentations with a single reported symptom of dyspnoea or confusion were also identified, alongside a sub-phenotype of patients reporting few or no symptoms. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms were more commonly female, had a longer duration of symptoms before presentation, and had lower 30-day mortality. Patients presenting with confusion, with or without core symptoms, were older and had a higher unadjusted mortality. Symptom sub-phenotypes were highly consistent in replication analysis within the ISARIC-4C study. Similar patterns were externally verified in patients from a study of self-reported symptoms of mild disease. The large scale of the ISARIC-4C study enabled robust, granular discovery and replication. Clinical interpretation is necessary to determine which of these observations have practical utility. We propose that four sub-phenotypes are usefully distinct from the core symptom group: gastro-intestinal disease, productive cough, confusion, and pauci-symptomatic presentations. Importantly, each is associated with an in-hospital mortality which differs from that of patients with core symptoms

Multimodal Functional Network Connectivity: An EEG-fMRI Fusion in Network Space

EEG and fMRI recordings measure the functional activity of multiple coherent networks distributed in the cerebral cortex. Identifying network interaction from the complementary neuroelectric and hemodynamic signals may help to explain the complex relationships between different brain regions. In this paper, multimodal functional network connectivity (mFNC) is proposed for the fusion of EEG and fMRI in network space. First, functional networks (FNs) are extracted using spatial independent component analysis (ICA) in each modality separately. Then the interactions among FNs in each modality are explored by Granger causality analysis (GCA). Finally, fMRI FNs are matched to EEG FNs in the spatial domain using network-based source imaging (NESOI). Investigations of both synthetic and real data demonstrate that mFNC has the potential to reveal the underlying neural networks of each modality separately and in their combination. With mFNC, comprehensive relationships among FNs might be unveiled for the deep exploration of neural activities and metabolic responses in a specific task or neurological state

Predicting the Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis and Its Age of Onset through Modelling Genetic Risk Variants with Smoking

The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA). Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls); UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls). HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG). Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001); ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively

Aberrant actin depolymerization triggers the pyrin inflammasome and autoinflammatory disease that is dependent on IL-18, not IL-1beta

Gain-of-function mutations that activate the innate immune system can cause systemic autoinflammatory diseases associated with increased IL-1β production. This cytokine is activated identically to IL-18 by an intracellular protein complex known as the inflammasome; however, IL-18 has not yet been specifically implicated in the pathogenesis of hereditary autoinflammatory disorders. We have now identified an autoinflammatory disease in mice driven by IL-18, but not IL-1β, resulting from an inactivating mutation of the actin-depolymerizing cofactor Wdr1. This perturbation of actin polymerization leads to systemic autoinflammation that is reduced when IL-18 is deleted but not when IL-1 signaling is removed. Remarkably, inflammasome activation in mature macrophages is unaltered, but IL-18 production from monocytes is greatly exaggerated, and depletion of monocytes in vivo prevents the disease. Small-molecule inhibition of actin polymerization can remove potential danger signals from the system and prevents monocyte IL-18 production. Finally, we show that the inflammasome sensor of actin dynamics in this system requires caspase-1, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a caspase recruitment domain, and the innate immune receptor pyrin. Previously, perturbation of actin polymerization by pathogens was shown to activate the pyrin inflammasome, so our data now extend this guard hypothesis to host-regulated actin-dependent processes and autoinflammatory disease.Man Lyang Kim, Jae Jin Chae, Yong Hwan Park, Dominic De Nardo, Roslynn A. Stirzaker ... Benjamin T Kile ... et al

Distinct clinical symptom patterns in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an analysis of 59,011 patients in the ISARIC-4C study

COVID-19 is clinically characterised by fever, cough, and dyspnoea. Symptoms affecting other organ systems have been reported. However, it is the clinical associations of different patterns of symptoms which influence diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making. In this study, we applied clustering techniques to a large prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 to identify clinically meaningful sub-phenotypes. We obtained structured clinical data on 59,011 patients in the UK (the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium, 4C) and used a principled, unsupervised clustering approach to partition the first 25,477 cases according to symptoms reported at recruitment. We validated our findings in a second group of 33,534 cases recruited to ISARIC-4C, and in 4,445 cases recruited to a separate study of community cases. Unsupervised clustering identified distinct sub-phenotypes. First, a core symptom set of fever, cough, and dyspnoea, which co-occurred with additional symptoms in three further patterns: fatigue and confusion, diarrhoea and vomiting, or productive cough. Presentations with a single reported symptom of dyspnoea or confusion were also identified, alongside a sub-phenotype of patients reporting few or no symptoms. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms were more commonly female, had a longer duration of symptoms before presentation, and had lower 30-day mortality. Patients presenting with confusion, with or without core symptoms, were older and had a higher unadjusted mortality. Symptom sub-phenotypes were highly consistent in replication analysis within the ISARIC-4C study. Similar patterns were externally verified in patients from a study of self-reported symptoms of mild disease. The large scale of the ISARIC-4C study enabled robust, granular discovery and replication. Clinical interpretation is necessary to determine which of these observations have practical utility. We propose that four sub-phenotypes are usefully distinct from the core symptom group: gastro-intestinal disease, productive cough, confusion, and pauci-symptomatic presentations. Importantly, each is associated with an in-hospital mortality which differs from that of patients with core symptoms

Comparison of Costs and Outcomes for In-Office and Operating Room Excision of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer

With increasing health care expenses and limited resources, it is important to evaluate potential means of reducing cost while maintaining efficacy and safety. The purpose of our study was to compare the cost and outcomes of surgical excision of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in the operating room versus an outpatient procedure clinic. A retrospective review of patients undergoing excision of biopsy-confirmed NMSC at the Miami Veterans Affairs Hospital between December 1, 2015, and December 1, 2016, was completed. Patients treated in the operating room and procedure clinic were included. Treatment outcomes were assessed for all identified patients. Patients undergoing excision and primary closure were included for cost comparison.Procedure costs were estimated using Current Procedural Terminology codes for treatments provided and the 2017 conversion factor of $35.7751. If a second operation for positive margins was necessary, cost to treat the lesion included costs from both procedures. If multiple lesions were treated, total cost was divided by the number of lesions to calculate cost per lesion treated. Costs per lesion managed in the operating room and clinic were compared using the Student t test. Sixty-five patients underwent excision of 94 NMSCs in the operating room. Nineteen patients underwent excision of 20 NMSCs in the procedure clinic. One patient treated in the clinic required re-excision in the operating room with frozen section for a positive margin.Thirty-three patients managed in the operating room and 19 patients managed in the procedure clinic were included for cost analysis. Average costs per lesion excised in the operating room and procedure clinic were calculated to be$1923.43 ± 616.27 and $674.88 ± 575.22, respectively (P < 0.001). Excellent oncologic outcomes were achieved for both operating room and procedure clinic excision. Excision in the operating room excision was significantly more expensive than in the procedure clinic. Excision in a procedure clinic offers an opportunity to reduce costs while maintaining quality care